Will July Capital Market Further Improve The A Share Market Opportunity?

With the recent 3200 points on the Shanghai Stock Index station, the market began to overflow with an optimistic atmosphere, and more people talked about the bull market.

Although Guizhou Moutai, which is the first high priced stock, has begun to fall from its high position, but because of the rise of a large number of second tier blue chips, to a certain extent, it has aroused more popularity, and the market has been gradually active.

Although there are many reasons for optimism now, the market is showing some hesitation after the index has really stood on 3200 points.

If we analyze the various aspects of the market carefully, we will still feel a lot of uneasiness, and the most important thing should be on the capital side.

More than a month ago, people generally worried about the financial situation in the middle of the year, because at that time, the market capital interest rate continued to rise, and some corporate bonds were difficult to issue, resulting in the pressure of funds on the stock market.

Fortunately, after entering the middle of June, although it was generally thought that it was the most tense period of capital, but because the central bank carried out the reverse repurchase operation continuously, and provided a large amount of medium-term loan convenience to some commercial banks, the pattern of funds supply and demand has been improved correspondingly, and the actual funds are not too tight.

Objectively, the continuous and mild rise of stock market in this period is also related to it.

However, the actual situation is quite different from what people expected.

Or in late June, the central bank suspended the counter buy back in the open market.

As a result, the net return of funds is objectively formed.

It has been noted that although the long end interest rate has indeed dropped somewhat during this period, the short term interest rate is still high, resulting in some upside down.

At present, the interest rate in the IMF market is roughly maintained at around 4%, which is relatively high compared to the 1 year deposit rate of 1.5%. This also reflects the current situation of short-term capital shortage from one aspect.

In this case, the general prudent fund will not choose to invest in the stock market, because in the fixed income market, we can get a safe return far beyond the inflation rate.

Over a period of time, the number of customer deposits shown in the form of third party custody has been in a downward trend, that is, funds are continuously flowing out.

Obviously, in the face of tight funds, it is difficult for the stock market to have any decent investment opportunities.

Further, although China's A shares were included in the MSCI index in June, the foreigners who compiled the index were high-profile, saying that 300 billion US dollars would enter China's A shares later.

But these are just good expectations, because it is a possibility in the future, and now it can only be a saying.

As for the pensions, social security funds that people have been looking forward to, and

Entering the market, at least in the future, is still at the stage of planning and trial, so the number of real market entry is very limited.

In the past, banks' "outsourcing business", as well as the "universal insurance" of venture capital, as well as the "channel" business of brokers, are now under severe supervision and are unlikely to provide a large amount of capital supply to the stock market.

In fact, the process of "deleveraging" is also the process of being expelled from the stock market.

Therefore, on the one hand, the funds in the field are constantly flowing out, on the other hand, OTC funds are unwilling to flow into the market, and at the same time, the interest rate in the capital market is still high, which has a negative impact on the stock market.

Of course, with the current stock market and the free market value of the stock market, it is possible to support the market at 3200 points or even higher.

But in any case, it is unrealistic to push the stock market across the board.

Further, the stock market is short of systematic opportunities until the constraints of capital market have been fundamentally resolved.

In this sense, although we can watch the market in July, we must be vigilant at the same time, because it can hardly be reassuring.

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