The Textile Market As A Whole Shows A "N" Trend, Lint Or Weak Operation.

From the perspective of the textile industry, the domestic and foreign trade situation of textile and clothing has improved. In 1-5 months of 2017, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 99 billion 880 million US dollars, up 2.12% over the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 43 billion 485 million US dollars, up 2.35% over the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 56 billion 395 million US dollars, up 1.94% over the same period.

In terms of domestic demand, in 2017 1-5, retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles were 594 billion 500 million yuan, up 7.2% over the same period last year.

In the first half of 2017, the textile market experienced a roller coaster market. Currently, the domestic supply side reform of environmental protection and limited production policy has a great impact on textile, especially the chemical fiber board, such as viscose, spandex, polyester and other industries are expected to continue to improve.

At the same time, the export data of textile industry is still strong, and continuous improvement is due to factors such as rising demand for external demand and devaluation of the renminbi. Especially in the context of "one belt and one road", textile enterprises expand exports and improve industrial chains, and go global layout, but they need more caution for the prediction of export situation in the second half of the year.

The overall situation has not seen a marked improvement. At the same time, the increase of labor force, raw materials and environmental costs in our country will reduce the price competitive advantage of China's export products.

Overall, it is expected that textile market shocks will be adjusted in the second half of the year. There will be a slight rebound in 9 or October. The highest point will be around 940 in October, and the lowest point will be around 870 in December.

In the first half of 2017, the price of lint showed a M trend. As of June 30th, the price of 3128B lint in the domestic spot market was 15930 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from 15820 yuan in the beginning of the year.

Specifically, in January, the price of the Spring Festival was basically affected by the annual Spring Festival holiday in China. After February, the profit of textile market was improved.

Subsequently, cotton prices continued to decline as a result of the 16 years in advance.

After the adjustment of cotton market in April, the market was worried about the supply of high quality cotton, and the price rose.

In June, the growth of cotton planting area increased significantly. The cotton market in the new year saw a high atmosphere and the output of cotton reserves dropped sharply.

According to the report released by the US Department of agriculture in June 30th, the sown area of US cotton in 2017 was 12 million 50 thousand acres, an increase of 20% over the same period last year.

Cotton production is expected to be stronger in the new year. In June, ICE cotton fell for 10 consecutive days. Zheng cotton fell close to a 15000 yuan / ton mark, and international cotton prices continued to fall. Cotton prices continued to drop at a low price. At the same time, the source of Xinjiang cotton, which was favored by the domestic market, dropped to 10 thousand tons near the end of 6.

The growth of cotton growing area is obvious.

To a certain extent, it also determines the pattern of weakening cotton prices in the new year.

The first half of the downstream cotton yarn market was narrowed by the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices, and the impact of textile exports improved. The overall operation was good. However, the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices began to widen in June, and it is expected that the supporting role of cotton prices in the second half of the year will be weak.

In the domestic market, the current situation of cotton production less than consumption has not changed. Cotton quota is still limited. Whether cotton can be used to meet domestic cotton consumption remains to be observed. At the same time, domestic cotton is still in the out of stock stage of supply side reform, and cotton is unlikely to go down substantially.

On the whole, the cotton planting area has been greatly improved, and the cotton market is hard to get rid of the negative shadow in the second half of the year. It is expected that the cotton will run steadily in the second half of the year, and the price will be running between 15500-16000 yuan / ton.

Under the increasingly stringent environmental protection and supply side reform, the expansion of the industry is better than expected. It is understood that the total capacity of spandex industry is around 500 thousand tons, and the new capacity is about 50 thousand tons this year.

The new round of reshuffle of the spandex industry will greatly increase the concentration of the industry after eliminating a number of backward production capacity.

Moreover, the rising cost of raw materials and low market inventories have boosted the price of spandex, which is expected to be dominated by high consolidation in the near future.

With the coming of the peak season in September, the price increase of spandex will be a big probability event.

Low inventory and low start-up at least for the three quarter

The fundamentals will not be too bad, but in the market outlook, the old plant will return to the end of the three quarter, when the fundamentals will increase.

On the cost side, many sets of installations were postponed in the Asian market in 2017, and there were several installations planned for overhaul in the three quarter.

Downstream, in 7 and August, the traditional weaving will enter the off-season, and the construction will gradually go down to the golden nine silver ten will be resumed. But at present, the weaving inventory level is not high, the polyester stock is low, and the price is still supported.

On the whole, the PTA market coexists with the long and short game, the market first rebounded and then dropped, the price range was around 4700-5200 yuan / ton.

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