Weaving Stock Level Is Not High, Polyester Stock Is Low, Price Exists Support.

In the first half of the year, PTA (PTA), which has gone through a tortuous course, has recently ushered in a strong market.

Since July 9th, the spot price of PTA has risen for several days.

Data show that PTA

The price is currently 5400 yuan per ton, compared with 9 yuan per ton increased by 450 yuan.

Insiders said that the recent market is largely driven by supply constraints and is expected to continue in the next two months.

This year, the PTA market has experienced a roller coaster: first, the market was uniformly optimistic at the beginning of the year, and the highest price rose to 5900 yuan / ton in the early February.

But then came a continuous decline, falling to around 5000 yuan in March.

In the next three months, the price of PTA has been fluctuating within a range of less than 200 yuan.

Until recently, the market was booming.

Insiders said that in June

The stock went up to 270 thousand tons.

By the end of June, social inventory was around 1 million 300 thousand tons.

In July, HP 2 million 200 thousand ton capacity, which had a larger inventory impact, stopped for two weeks, exceeding market expectations, and the marginal impact on supply and demand exceeded 50 thousand tons.

In addition, the constant force device is being overhauled, and its impact on marginal supply and demand is 150 thousand tons.

That is to say, if we do not consider the impact of other small devices on parking, the stock will be at least over 200 thousand tons in July, and it will not be resumed in a short time.

According to the current state of operation of various installations in the industry, the social inventory dropped to about 1 million 100 thousand tons at the end of July.

According to experience, the PTA industry early-warning social inventory is around 900 thousand tons.

If it is lower than the stock, it belongs to the extreme case.

The industry believes that there is little possibility that social stocks will drop to 900 thousand tons directly, but the trend of inventory clearance is clear.

During the week, the supply of nylon was tight, most manufacturers took a single line number, and the market showed no market price.

The cost is increasing, the price increase is bigger, and the market confidence of nylon is increasing.

At present, the price of nylon manufacturers is followed by the market.

Recent domestic

Maintain a relatively stable market, caprolactam rising enthusiasm continued, profits continue to increase.

From the perspective of PA6, the price of caprolactam has continued to rise, and the price is strong.

Among them, the main suppliers of high-speed spinning market are contract orders, and the shipments of the manufacturers are not bad.

From the perspective of downstream demand, polyester stocks are normal and profits are kept at a good level.

Although June is the traditional off-season, but in June this year, the polyester operating rate has reached 88%, exceeding the industry's expectation.

And the weaving rate of downstream weaving also keeps at a very good level.

At the same time, the relatively low price of polyester also makes the downstream flow more smoothly.

At present, the consumption of textile and clothing polyester products is increasing, and the amount of polyester used for building decoration wallpaper is also more.

Low inventory and low opening make PTA at least not too bad in the early three quarter.

With the downstream textile weaving entering the off-season, the starting rate or decline, but at present, the weaving inventory level is not high, the polyester stock is low, and there is price support.

In the upstream, crude oil ranges from $45 to $50.

At present, the processing fee of PTA reaches 1000 yuan, which is the best processing fee level in recent years.

According to the spot market purchase, PTA processing fee is also about 900 yuan.

According to this judgement, the inventory rate will drop in July.

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