Textile Industry Crisis, After The Pain, Whether We Can Usher In A New Dawn.

Recently, chemical industry

The price increase is spectacular, for example: POM rose 1906 yuan / ton; TDI broke 30 thousand yuan; MDI rose 1500 yuan / ton; dye rose 77%.

Many people sigh: raw materials are crazy!

Why is the price surge so fierce? In addition to environmental protection and security supervision, Sino US trade war and tension in the Middle East, Trump's "sudden retreat" and Venezuela elections actually add fuel to the rise of chemical products.

Enterprises are shutting down on a large scale, some raw materials are out of stock, and even money can not be bought. Most enterprises are forced to stop buying orders.

It can be said that at present, the ecological environment of China's real economy is boiling, and a large number of enterprises have been involved in the whirlpool of the crazy price rises, struggling for a long time.

From a deeper perspective, the price surge is triggered by a series of liquidation crises and long-term distortions in the price mechanism.

Due to excessive accumulation of contradictions, opaque information and people's panic, the price of manufactured goods is out of control for a short time.

Economic bubble faces liquidation

This time of price rise is a sudden inflation, which is also related to the amount of M2 over the past few years.

In 2008, China's M2 was 47 trillion and 500 billion yuan; in 2017, the M2 data was 167 trillion and 680 billion yuan.

In the past few years, the government has tried to establish two monetary pools of the property market and the stock market to lock in the super currency, but the stock market has been temporarily damaged by a wave of artificial bull market and the pressure cooker of the property market bubble has led to liquidity.

A large number of homeowners feel that wealth is multiplying, but prices are very low, so they spend too much money, and they can earn a lot of money without doing anything.

On the one hand, this false prosperity has greatly reduced the number of people creating wealth. On the other hand, a lot of real wealth has been consumed too much, which has aggravated the bubble of RMB.

The extent of inflation may be far more serious than we think. When the days of M2 and the bubble of the property market are cleared, we will either pierce the bubble or bear the great challenge brought by severe inflation.

Environmental pollution is hard to come back

In the past thirty years since China's economic reform and opening up, despite the fact that many foreign experts have pointed out that sacrificing the environment and developing the economy is not sustainable, it has outweighed the gains and losses. But in order to develop the economy rapidly and vigorously, we can only turn a blind eye to environmental pollution. The result is that the haze once harmed England and North America once again enveloped the northern land and spread rapidly to the periphery.

The problem of environmental pollution accumulated over the past decades is undoubtedly very difficult to solve in a few years, but it must be dealt with as soon as possible. Therefore, we have ushered in a round of strict environmental protection storms.

Since 2016, we have experienced the liquidation crisis brought about by environmental pollution, and the situation is even worse in 2018.

Raw materials, such as chemical industry, chemical fiber, textile, printing and dyeing industry, have been surging up under the continuous production stop and the multiplied increase of sewage charges.

Retaliatory rebound in the long run of price mechanism

After the economic stimulus in 2008, China's private investment and state investment all showed fanaticism.

Since 2012, serious overcapacity has led to the distortion of the market price mechanism.

During this period, we experienced a continuous decline of PPI for four years, and still appeared in the case of labor costs, such as labor, factory rent and logistics.

Now, with the soaring prices of raw materials, PPI has begun to turn negative, but prices appear to have been retaliatory rebounding.

Low price life has long been a blind eye, followed by painful debt repayment.

At the same time, in the past, the low prices in the past led to no profit in waste recycling, and no one was willing to engage in waste recycling work, resulting in waste cartons, plastic bottles, scrap iron and so on were thrown away.

Once the exchange rate falls and the cost of imported raw materials rises sharply, it will also have an impact on domestic raw material prices.

What is the crux of China's real economy?

In the frenzied rise in prices, a number of small and medium-sized enterprises can not afford pressure, and they have to be forced to shut down. This also exposes the crisis facing China's economy.

Some people question, is the real economy going to collapse?

For a long time, many SMEs have been living on tax evasion.

China's macro tax burden is as high as 38%, far exceeding that of many emerging market countries, even more than that of developed countries such as the United States and Britain.

Nowadays, tax evasion is becoming more and more difficult. Although the tax burden of enterprises has been reduced, it is still unbearable for some enterprises.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are also facing the problem of financing difficulties.

Over the past 40 years, 80% of China's credit resources have gone to the state sector which contributed less than 40% of GDP, contributing more than 60% of GDP's non-public enterprises, and less than 20% of the credit resources obtained from mainstream credit institutions. China's 80% small and micro enterprises are almost relying on private lending, and are funded by illegal financial institutions.

If the collapse of China's real economy is not due to these sentiments, what is the real crux?

Take manufacturing industry as an example, in the past, Chinese manufacturing could rise suddenly, and the key lies in the low labor cost. Therefore, China chose the lowest manufacturing and processing industry in the global industrial chain on the industrial policy, that is, the mode of working for the world.

Although this model has made China's past success, it is the main reason for the embarrassment and predicament of China's manufacturing and real economy.

All our systems are prepared for such a pattern. Under the cycle of demographic dividend, this kind of play can survive even if the tax burden is heavy and the financing is difficult. Once the demographic dividend is over, the drawbacks of this model will be shown.

That is to say, the economic model we adopted in the past has lost competitiveness and even is difficult to sustain.

Lenovo for example, Lenovo's report in recent years is not very good-looking, which is the inevitable result of Lenovo's lack of investment in R & D.

Lenovo used to rely on other people's brands to assemble computers on others to live very well.

Lenovo used to be a giant following, and rarely walked into the no man's land. Now, this road has come to an end.

It can be said that the decline of Lenovo, in fact, represents the representative enterprises in the past era of China's withdrawal from the stage of history, and the future belongs to the real R & D enterprises such as HUAWEI.

Nowadays, the whole country has entered a completely different area from the past.

This zone needs more innovation, new business models, and new institutional ecology to create new competitiveness.

Although manufacturing industry is facing many crises, we still need to attach importance to the survival and development of manufacturing industry, because no country is rich because it is not the manufacturing industry, including the present us.

When most people foolishly think that the US does not play the manufacturing industry, the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry still ranks first in the world second.

We might as well think about environmental protection storms, price surges, cut-off tide and collapse tide. When these "pains" have passed, can the real economy get better? When a large number of enterprises fail, will foreign capital occupy China?

What about it?