Experts Say The Depreciation Of The RMB Exchange Rate Is Conducive To Easing The Impact Of Trade Friction.

Since late June, the renminbi has depreciated sharply.

According to the data released by China foreign exchange trading center in July 3rd, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6497, down 340 basis points from the previous trading day.

As for the depreciation of the renminbi, industry experts generally believe that the continued strength of the US dollar is the main reason for the depreciation of the RMB.

Since mid April this year, the US dollar index has risen rapidly from the low level.

Fed chairman Powell's recent hawkish speech is the main reason for the rise in the US dollar index.

In June 20th, Powell said that with the recovery of the economy, the Fed's reasons for tightening monetary policy were strong.

The Fed has raised interest rates two times this year and has raised the annual interest rate hike to 4. Higher interest rates are expected to enhance the attractiveness of US dollar assets.

Ming also pointed out that, from the inside, the central bank implemented directional reduction in June 24th and increased the money supply. It did not follow the Fed's interest rate raising, narrowing the interest margin between China and the United States. The central bank's loosely structured monetary policy and the direction of the US monetary policy were opposite, and the devaluation pressure of the central bank increased further.

Fan Ruoying, a researcher at the Institute of international finance of Bank of China, told reporters yesterday that the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate recently. The main reasons lie in three aspects: first, the strong rise of the US dollar.

This is the key factor leading to the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate.

Since April, the US dollar index has risen from around 89.5 to around 95, with an appreciation of about 6%.

US economic growth, employment, inflation rate and other data have performed well, economic fundamentals support the US dollar strength; second, the trend of Sino US monetary policy deviates.

At present, the Fed's interest rate rises steadily and is expected to be stronger. The margin of China's monetary policy has eased on a moderate neutral tone, which has led to a further narrowing of the interest rate gap between the US and China. Third, the continuous fermentation of Sino US trade frictions has raised market concerns and increased the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation.

Huang Zhilong, director of the financial and trade center of Suning Financial Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that after the recent RMB exchange rate offset, the pressure of RMB depreciation has eased.

However, the trend of the RMB exchange rate in the late period depends on the exchange rate trend of the US dollar. In the short term, the US dollar may remain strong, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may still have a slight devaluation pressure.

"We need to take an objective view of the trend of the renminbi. The depreciation of the RMB will help to alleviate the pressure brought by the trade friction.

Of course, we need to pay close attention to the follow-up.

We should guard against the excessive expectation of devaluation.

Fan Ruoying emphasized.