PTA Prices Plunged 1500 On The 3 Day! Environmental Protection + Market Double Stimulation, Fiber Market Embarrassed For How Long?

After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday,

。

among

It's diving price.

What a big tongue!

Although entering the September, the enthusiasm of polyester downstream purchasing has dropped significantly. From the production and sales data, we can see that since the Mid Autumn Festival, the production and sale of polyester filament market can be described as a downturn.

Market average production and sales between 4-5.

Before the holidays,

The production and marketing of the market is even more light. On the 17 day, the polyester factories offer price promotions, but the downstream market does not buy it. The production and marketing are only maintained at 3-4 on that day.

The downstream is slow to take delivery of goods, and production and marketing are lighter day by day.

The market is urgent.

This urgent, the polyester market is like the cut leek, a piece of green oil.

The downstream market has always been buying up not buying and falling, the raw material falls, the weaving Market feels that the raw material this fall is just scratch, the weaving Market is not buying, the more urgent the raw material market, the market market is more and more obvious.

In recent years, the stock market of polyester market has increased significantly. The current polyester stock has risen to 7-15 days, up 5 days from the beginning of September. With the accumulation of polyester stocks, polyester manufacturers' sales and capital pressures are becoming more and more large. The polyester market is plunged into a passive mode of buying more and more.

At the same time, judging from the feedback from the fabric market, this year's Kim Gu season is still not showing signs.

according to

The head of a regional textile company said that raw materials were soaring in 7-8 months, pushing raw material prices to the highest point in recent years. In the face of such high raw material prices, many orders that were originally issued at this time would not be closed due to the price. Orders would either be cancelled or delayed.

Nowadays,

Ushered in a sudden plunge, raw material prices fell, orders in the terminal market have to wait and see.

In recent years, the fluctuation of raw material market has caused a great deal of trouble for textile enterprises.

The raw material market in the early stage is skyrocketing, and enterprises can not lock in the cost. The manufacturers mainly focus on small bills and short lists. Large single companies and long Dan Yin are at great risk. Many enterprises have abandoned them.

A few days ago, Xiaobian met a textile boss who gave me an interesting account: if a weaving factory has 200 looms to produce silk like imitation, the output of each loom is 180 meters / day, and the output is 40 thousand meters a day.

If you can sell 30 thousand meters a day, keep 25% of the stock, then it is reasonable, but if you sell 20 thousand meters, keep 50% of the stock, a week is 140 thousand meters, a month is 600 thousand meters, two months inventory exceeds one million meters!

From the market trend, the simulation silk series has been flat after 3-5 months of production and sales, and it has been going poorly in the second half of the year. The production and marketing are difficult to make. The inventory of weaving factories is also rising month by month. From the above calculation formula, we can also find that a medium-sized textile mill can store millions of meters in 2 months. Besides, the market of silk imitation enterprises is numerous.

It is reported that many traders still hoard a lot of silk like fabrics. The market is oversupply and the market is hard to get up.

Of course, imitation silk series is the mainstream product of spring and summer season. The second half of the year is not its "showcase". It is understandable that the market is not good. But recently, products such as polyester taffeta, spring Asian spinning and nylon spinning have been enlarged slowly, but it is a bit of a sigh that many market participants who had hoped to reproduce the "high tide and shortage tide" in the first half of the year.

There is no call for price rise in the near future, there is no voice out of stock, and some are notice of raw material price decline and clothing factory holiday.

Foreign trade single, double 11 electricity supplier, domestic demand consumer goods orders this traditional peak season, the protagonist is not "boom", many textile owners admitted: upstream and downstream sluggish become the focus of the market.

Raw materials for PTA upstream

Upstream petrochemical industry chain, from the absolute price point of view, crude oil, naphtha high volatility, a slight increase, PX prices fell.

From the processing difference, naphtha processing difference is located at the high level, slightly down, PX processing differential compression, but still relatively high, because PTA spot prices sharply decline, PTA processing profit compression obvious.

Last week, oil prices were high and volatile, and prices rose 1.2% to 78.75 dollars per barrel. CFR Japan's naphtha prices rose strongly, last week the price was $692.4 / ton, naphtha cracking price difference of 113.6 U.S. dollars / ton, compared with the previous week, a small expansion of 2.6 U.S. dollars.

PX end, last week, CFR China's main port PX quoted $1276 / ton, down 6.4% compared with the previous week, PX fell slightly, PX- Shi Shi oil price difference compressed 109.3 US dollars to 571.3 US dollars.

In terms of installations, the operating rate of Asian PX installations was 82.8% last week, and the installation load of Saudi Arabia and Vietnam increased, and the operating rate increased by 3 percentage points from the previous week.

At present, due to the poor processing of PX, the overall operating rate is guaranteed, and the growth rate of downstream polyester demand is down. The supply of tension is eased. At present, the supply of PX is relatively balanced.

After entering the October, some old devices will be restarted, which may result in a small library.

PTA supply and demand side, demand side by downstream polyester end filament factory began to reduce production and decline, polyester production and marketing weakened influence, PTA part of the device parking inspection, operation rate decreased.

Last week, part of the PTA plant entered the maintenance cycle, and the PTA factory load continued to drop 2.54 percentage points to 79.48%.

Last week, the PTA spot was relatively abundant, the price dropped sharply, while the PX price was relatively strong. The processing profit of PTA was greatly reduced, and the average weekly processing profit was 1162.9 yuan / ton, which was 959.6 yuan lower than that of the previous week.

PTA stock days rose to 3.5 days, 09 contract deliveries were completed, Zhengshang warehouse receipt was 0, and warehouse receipt effective forecast volume totaled 2325.

With regard to the PTA installation, after the middle of September, the pressure of supply gradually eased due to the continuous maintenance of PTA factories.

As can be seen from the table below, the capacity of Yisheng and BP Zhuhai, which has entered the overhaul, has reached nearly 300 thousand tons / month, and if other maintenance plans are fulfilled after the holidays, it will involve 7 million 500 thousand tons / year capacity, i.e. 625 thousand tons / month capacity reduction.

Although some of the maintenance plans are less than one month or may be staggering, there is still a large supply reduction.

Although the future is known to be decreasing in supply, how can we judge the demand? Will the peak season still come?

Judging by the total volume of light textile city, the volume of turnover has not decreased significantly since mid August, and the proportion of filament and staple fabric is also maintained at 2:1-3:1.

From this we infer that the consumption demand of terminal textiles in China has not changed materially.

However, from the change of load rate of industrial chain, we can see that the load rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and polyester factories are at a low level.

Compared with historical data, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and polyester operating rates also experienced a number of negative reductions during the Spring Festival, but they did not last for a long time, and 10-11 months were at a high level.

Therefore, we can conclude that there is no qualitative reversal of terminal consumption and downstream demand.

The main reason for the decrease is that the price of upstream raw materials is too high, which reduces the phased changes caused by profits.

There may be two different trends in the future: first, PTA and polyester prices continue to slide, falling to the level accepted by polyester and weaving industry losses, polyester and weaving start to resume, the industrial chain is back to its original state; second, weaving inventory digestion and start-up will have to resume, leading to polyester polyester, the price of the whole industry chain will remain high, the price of terminal textile products will rise, the profits of the industrial chain will be increased, the profits of the industrial chain will be redistributed, and PTA will maintain a high processing error. In the long term, October is likely to be better.

But in the short term, the PTA processing differential compression is obvious, the PTA device overhaul scope increases, the spot price stabilizes, this week PTA period price continues to fall the space is not big, is expected to maintain the concussion trend.

Some market participants pointed out that

The relationship between supply and demand has changed, the market has gradually become saturated, and the demand kinetic energy is also weakening, so the market competition is more intense.

Since 2016,

The boom has already entered third years. Many textile bosses are wondering if there will be a three year cycle, a good three years. The bad three years will come again. From the Ministry of Commerce's monthly index of Shengze chemical fiber, we can see that the market boom has been on the rise since 2016, especially in the first half of 2017.

"The first two years of the market is good, mainly the elimination of a number of production capacity, market supply suddenly tense, the market is up, but now the market is low, the most important reason is also the capacity problem, although environmental protection elimination regulation is still in progress, but the field looms are coming up, the impact of the local market."

Shen Zong in Shengze said.

Last year, or because of environmental protection or because of the good market stimulus, many textile bosses chose to go outside to carry out production, from the original dozens of Taiwan, hundreds of looms, to expand to 200 or 400 outside.

From the preparation plant to the machine debugging, it will take six months to slow down and a year later. Therefore, the looms of large quantities of looms in Anhui, Northern Jiangsu and Jiangxi will be concentrated in the fourth quarter of this year. The production capacity of conventional products such as spring Asian spinning, polyester taffeta and simulation wire will also explode.

In fact, many employers in the field know that this is not the best time to start a new job, but last year's fruit is not eaten and eaten.

"The money is spent, the machine is fixed, the workshop is ready, is the new line going to bed? No, it can not be done. It can only be done with a stiff upper lip."

Cui Chang, who runs factories outside the country, said.

It can be seen that the production will continue to expand, and the market competition of conventional chemical fiber products will become increasingly fierce.

Temperate market, "Inaction" is the biggest and most effective "promising"!

In the market that is currently in a temperate water market, there is no need for big adjustment and thinking. It is the slow evolution and trend of the market.

At the moment when the market is at a turning point, as long as maintaining basic production and capital chain stability, we can wait until the physically poor peers fall first, and then have their own development space. Perhaps now "Inaction" is the biggest and most effective "promising".