September 2018 China Cotton Textile Industry Boom Report

Cotton textile prosperity index

In September 2018, China's cotton textile prosperity index (48.18) was 1.76 lower than that in August, which is not consistent with expectations.

In September, it should have entered the traditional textile peak season, but the market was constantly enveloped by Sino US trade friction. The unstable trade environment made market participants generally cautious, and the downstream peak season was not prosperous.

Most of the textile enterprises indicated that the order was acceptable in the first half of the year, and orders were generally reduced in the late part, even less than in 7 and August.

In September 24th, the United States announced that it would impose a 10% tariff on Chinese products of about $200 billion, rising to 25% in January 1, 2019 and full of panic in the market.

At present, the "silver ten" has more than half, but the demand side is still in the doldrums. Downstream reflects double eleven and Christmas orders are significantly less than in previous years, is expected in October China.

The prosperity index is still declining.

Raw material purchase price index

In September, the raw material purchasing price index was 50.83, up 0.33 compared with August, which is in line with expectations.

In September, domestic and foreign cotton futures fell off, and affected by the low market light, the domestic cotton spot prices were weaker and downward, and the average price of cotton reserves decreased slightly. In terms of chemical fiber staple, polyester staple fiber prices remained at a high level, and viscose staple fibers were relatively strong under the support of pre-sale orders.

In September, the CotlookA index averaged 90.36 cents / pound, a decrease of 4.43%; the average spot price of domestic 3128B grade cotton was 16230 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.51%; the average price of mainstream viscose fiber was 15172 yuan / ton, the chain increased 5.5%; the 1.4D straight spinning polyester short average price was 11137 yuan / ton, and the ratio increased by 5.42%.

In October, the overall oscillation of the international cotton price rose, and the spot price of domestic 3128 grade cotton continued to slump. The mainstream viscose prices were relatively stable in early days, and began to fall later in the last decade. The price of polyester staple fiber continued to decline, and the purchasing price index of raw materials in October was expected to decline.

Raw material inventory index

In September, the stock index of raw materials was 47.51, which was 1.63 lower than that in August, which is not consistent with expectations.

Tracking enterprise data shows that in September, raw material inventories fell by 1.9%.

Among them, the raw cotton inventory decreased by 1.68%, the import cotton inventory increased by 1.3%, and the non cotton fiber inventory decreased by 2.55%.

The main reasons are: first, under the influence of Sino US trade friction, the domestic and foreign cotton futures prices are coming down, and with the expectation of cotton production in the world and in China, the market wait-and-see attitude is pervaded; two

Earlier than expected rapid rise, the market generally believed that the apparent high, coupled with the rapid decline, making enterprise procurement cautious; three, the downstream market is light, orders reduced, the enthusiasm of enterprises hoarding is not high.

In recent years, the new cotton market in Xinjiang has been listed, and the price of seed cotton scales in the North Xinjiang is slightly lower than that of last year. The cost of lint cotton has dropped down, and the order is not optimistic. The willingness of the textile enterprises to hoard goods is not strong. According to the survey, about 40% of the enterprises say they will not increase their inventory, and about 56% of the enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude.

The stock index of raw materials is expected to decline slightly in October.

Production index

The production index in September was 48.85, down 2.13 from August, which is not in line with expectations.

9 in the first ten days of the month, the market is acceptable, but in the late part of the year, the characteristics of the peak season are indifferent. In particular, weaving mills are mostly small orders, and the northern part is in the autumn harvest season.

Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn production decreased by 1.03% in September, and cloth production decreased by 2.14%.

According to China Cotton Association Research and understanding, to maintain the normal operation of factories, enterprises produce more inventory products, and the opening rate of equipment is basically stable.

Entering the "silver ten" market, there is no sign of improvement in the market. Under the influence of Sino US trade friction, China and the global economy are more or less affected, thus affecting consumption.

Therefore, the decline probability of production index is bigger in October.

Product sales index

In September, the product sales index was 47.27, down 3.35 compared with August, which is not consistent with expectations.

In September, the market of the air spinning market was fading. The conventional combed yarn was still good. The pure polyester yarn was driven by the price of raw materials, and the sales were generally in the first half of the month. Orders were mainly implemented in the first half of the month, and the new orders slowed down in the second half of the month.

In September, the market of grey fabric was not clear, and the overall demand was not strong.

In terms of price, the average price of 32 Cotton Combed Yarns is 24307 yuan / ton, up 0.81% from the chain.

(32*32 130*70 2/1 47 "twill") the average price is 5.76 yuan / m, up by 0.17%.

Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn sales decreased by 5.37% in September, and cloth sales increased by 0.02%.

At present, about 72% of enterprises said that the order fell from last month, and 28% of the enterprises indicated that the order was basically the same as last month. It is expected that the sales index will continue to decline in October.

Product inventory index

In September, the product inventory index was 46.33, down 1.09 compared with August, which is not consistent with expectations.

In September, the pure cotton yarn market was not prosperous, but the stock level declined slightly in the early days, but it slowed down compared with August. The stock level began to increase slowly in the last ten days. Tracking enterprise data showed that the stock of pure cotton yarn increased by 12.09% in September.

Most mills still have high inventory pressure, and some of them are selling at a reduced price.

Tracking enterprise data shows that cloth inventory increased by 0.6% in September.

In October, the international yarn exhibition came to an agreement. However, due to the overall economic and trade environment, the situation of enterprises receiving orders is not as good as in previous years, and most of them are small and short.

Investigation and understanding, about 83% of the enterprise sales orders to November, about 17% of the enterprises express sales orders to December and January 2019.

Product inventory index is expected to decline in October.

Business index

In September, the business index was 48.25, a decrease of 2.43 compared with August, which is not consistent with expectations.

The price of pure cotton yarn and cotton declined in September, but

The drop is larger than that of cotton yarn. The profit level of the spinning enterprises at the spot has improved slightly, and the deficit has decreased by 3.66 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Most enterprises still have confidence in the future operation.

Affected by the working environment and season, the average number of all employees continued to decline.

At present, the new cotton market, the domestic market cotton price volatility is weak, Sino US trade friction continues to affect the industry mentality, gauze Market is weak, it is expected that in October the business index will decline.

Explanation: Chinese cotton

The prosperity index was collected from nearly 200 key cotton spinning enterprises in the country. Through weighted calculation of several main indicators, when the index is higher than 50, it indicates that the cotton textile industry is in a better position, and less than 50 indicates that the economic level is not good enough.