In The First Three Quarters, Foreign Trade Data Came Out, And Sino US Trade Did Not Decline, But Did The 2019 Spinning Enterprises Relax?

Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute jointly issued the China foreign trade situation report (autumn 2018). The report reviewed the operation of China's foreign trade in the first three quarters of 2018, and looked forward to the trend of China's foreign trade development in 2018 and 2019.

Sino US trade continues to grow

In the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of China's goods amounted to 22.28 trillion yuan, up 9.9% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports amounted to 11 trillion and 860 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, imports of 10 trillion and 430 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1%, and a surplus of 1 trillion and 430 billion yuan, narrowing 28.3%.

Clothing, toys and other 7 categories of labor-intensive products total exports of 2 trillion and 290 billion yuan, down 0.8%, accounting for 19.3% of total exports.

The report stresses that the current Sino US economic and trade frictions are limited and the overall risk is controllable.

In the first three quarters, China's imports and exports to the US increased by 3 trillion and 60 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, accounting for 13.8% of China's total foreign trade, and the United States remained the second largest trading partner of China.

Among them, China exported 2 trillion and 270 billion yuan to the United States, an increase of 7.4%, and an import of 798 billion 130 million yuan from the United States, an increase of 3.8%.

From the data, Sino US trade continues to grow.

The export situation is basically consistent with the overall situation.

According to the customs express data, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China (excluding 94 chapters) in 1~9 months was 207 billion 770 million US dollars, up 4.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year, which is 1.3 percentage points faster than that in the first half of this year.

According to the latest statistics, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in the 10 months amounted to US $23 billion 257 million in the month of 10, representing an increase of 7.33% over the same period last year (a year-on-year increase of 11.57% in RMB).

Among them, textiles exported 9 billion 744 million US dollars in the month, an increase of 5.88% over the same period (10.04% yuan over the same period last year). Clothing exported 13 billion 513 million US dollars in the same month, an increase of 8.4% over the same period (12.70% in the same period last year), and continued to maintain a growth trend since the second half of the year.

In the 1~10 months of this year, the total export volume of textiles and clothing totaled US $230 billion 805 million, an increase of 4.77% over the same period last year (an increase of 0.48% over the year).

Among them,

The total export volume was 98 billion 972 million US dollars, an increase of 9.91% over the same period (5.2% yuan over the same period last year), a decrease of 0.54% compared with 1~9 months, and a slight slowdown. The total export volume of clothing was 131 billion 834 million US dollars, up 1.22% from the same period last year (a decrease of 2.79% in the year before RMB).

Look, in 1~9 months, China's exports of textiles, raw materials and textiles and clothing to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 8.5%, 3.4% and 4.8% respectively over the same period last year. The growth rate of exports to the United States increased by 9.1 percentage points over the same period last year. Exports to Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia and other countries along the "one belt and one road" grew well, and exports increased by 30%, 5.7% and 21.6%, respectively.

According to the report on China's foreign trade situation (autumn 2018), growth is mainly from the following factors.

First, the growth of domestic market demand in the US. Since 2018, the US economy has maintained a relatively fast growth, the unemployment rate has dropped to a low level in the past decades, the consumer confidence ability has been enhanced, the investment confidence of the enterprises has increased, and the domestic market demand has been more vigorous, and the demand for imported goods has increased rapidly.

In the first 8 months, US merchandise imports increased by 9.5% over the same period last year, increasing by 3 percentage points over the same period in 2017.

Correspondingly, the demand for imports of Chinese goods in the US market is also expanding.

Two, the Sino US industrial chain is closely linked.

On the whole, China's industrial chain is complete, manufacturing capability is strong, its products are cost-effective, American technology is developed, resources are abundant, per capita income level is high, bilateral economic structure has strong complementarity, and there are many trade opportunities. The market choice has led the two countries to form the interest pattern of "you have me, I have you".

Especially for American consumers, Chinese products are the best choice for everyday consumer goods.

Three, import and export enterprises fulfill their contracts. In international trade, from signing contracts to actual imports and exports, there will usually be months or even longer delays.

After the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, most of the contracts signed by both companies continued to perform, making the import and export data basically stable.

In particular, in order to prepare for the four quarter of the peak season of consumption, enterprises prepare ahead of time and play a supporting role in bilateral trade.

According to the report,

Demand is relatively stable, and domestic import demand is growing steadily. China's foreign trade has the basic conditions for maintaining steady growth.

The rapid growth of import and export in the first three quarters has provided a strong support for the growth of foreign trade throughout the year.

However, the higher import and export base in the fourth quarter of 2017 will have some adverse effects on the growth rate of import and export in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The report points out that in 2019, China's foreign trade development is facing more severe and complex environment, and the risk of downside of the world economy is increasing. Protectionism threatens the steady growth of Global trade.

At present, the fundamentals of China's foreign trade development are good, and the policy environment is constantly improving, which implies new potential for development. We should actively foster a new mode of trade and new industry, and strive to maintain stable development and quality improvement of foreign trade.

How does barometer respond?

In 2019, the Canton Fair, which has always been known as the barometer of import and export trade, reminds exporters: Sino US trade friction still brings greater uncertainty to Sino US bilateral economic and trade relations and even the whole world.

The 124th Canton Fair ended on 4 November.

According to statistics, the total export turnover of this Canton Fair was 206 billion 494 million yuan (equivalent to 29 billion 860 million US dollars), down 1% compared with the same period last year. The volume of exports to the United States decreased by 30.3% compared to the same period last year, to 2 billion 790 million US dollars, and the export to the countries and regions along the "one belt and one road" area was 9 billion 630 million US dollars, up 2.7% over the same period last year, accounting for 32.3% of the total turnover.

Moreover, in the October PMI data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the new orders index for export has been the lowest since 2016, and the impact of Sino US trade war has begun to emerge from the results of entrepreneurial surveys.

It is reported that in the export commodities of the Canton Fair, electromechanical products are still ranked first in the paction, followed by light industrial products, of which, textile and apparel clinch a deal of 1 billion 514 million US dollars, accounting for 5.1% of the total turnover.

Xu Bing, a spokesman for the Canton Fair, said that in the face of severe and complex external environment, the participating enterprises implemented the market diversification strategy, while consolidating the traditional market, efforts to open up new markets and constantly optimize the market structure.

"Made in China" is changing from "made in China" to "made in China".

It is precisely because of this that domestic textile enterprises dare not take lightly.

At the Canton Fair, Zhejiang Tongxiang Textile Co., Ltd. showed a product containing OUTLAST technology, which can regulate the skin surface micro climate in two directions.

When the skin is overheated, the material absorbs heat. When the skin is too cold, it releases heat.

The company's foreign trade manager said that the company is constantly looking for new fabrics and materials to develop cost-effective products.

Only by product independent innovation and the pformation and upgrading of enterprises can we gain a firm foothold in the fierce market competition.

Industry experts said that from January 1st next year, the United States will increase tariffs on some products to 10% to 25%, increasing the worries of American buyers, and wavering China from a long-term perspective.

The international supply chain with scale advantages has been established, and the major impact on textile and clothing exports is expected to be concentrated in the first half of next year.