Survey And Summary Of Cotton Yield And Quality In Southern Xinjiang In 2018

Research route

The survey takes a combination of on-site research and discussion and visits. It starts from Korla, passes through the iron gate pass, Kuche County, Sha Ya county, Awati County, Bachu County, Yuepuhu County, and finally ends up in Kashi city.

The investigation route has a guiding significance for understanding the yield and quality of lint in the southern Xinjiang. According to the I cotton net inspection data, the lint processing volume of the survey route accounts for 58% of the outer cotton processing volume of the enterprises in the Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, and 48% of the lint processing volume of the enterprises in the southern Xinjiang except the military enterprises in the southern Xinjiang.

Research conclusion

18/19 Southern processing cycle postponed, production is expected to increase

This year, the South Xinjiang weather is very special, the late spring, also scraped a few winds, after the planting period extended, the frost in the autumn come especially early, the first after 20 days, the overall processing progress in southern Xinjiang is 5-7 days slower than last year, the southern Xinjiang cotton picking progress 90%, hand picking progress more than 60%.

During the growth process, the cotton fiber first elongated and thickened, and the cold air came earlier, resulting in a larger reduction in boll weight. From the average 3.8g to 3.2g, and with the increase of the percentage of machine picked cotton, peach harvested at the top of the cotton field could not be picked separately, and the lint percentage and seed cotton yield decreased compared with the previous years.

The output of Kuche, Sha ya, Xinhe and three places is expected to be reduced by 5%-8% (KWC new cotton processing capacity of 510 thousand tons in 2017). Akesu has the best yield per unit area, followed by Bazhou (5% reduction in production, 460 thousand tons of cotton processing in Bazhou area in 2017), the most serious reduction in Kashi production (10% above, 50 per kilogram of seed cotton yield over last year, 650 thousand tons of cotton processing capacity in Kashi in 2017), a reduction of 5%-10% in the whole southern Xinjiang (a yield of 10-20 million tons), and a new cotton output in the Xinjiang and the Xinjiang and the Xinjiang and the Xinjiang cotton fields in the southern part of Xinjiang, with a yield reduction of about 10-20 tons, and the output of new cotton in the Xinjiang and Xinjiang provinces is less than 5 million 60 thousand tons below the total yield of 5%-8%.

The proportion of machine picked cotton continues to increase, and the quality is greatly improved.

The intention of enterprises in the territory is to increase the planting area of cotton by means of land circulation, and further increase the percentage of machine picked cotton.

According to the relevant personages, the cotton planting area in Yuepuhu area is about 700 thousand mu, 17 years of machine harvest cotton planting area is 50 thousand mu, 18 years of machine harvest cotton area is about 300 thousand mu, and the proportion of machine picked cotton has increased greatly. From the view of enterprises, the proportion of machine picked cotton has increased from less than 50% last year to 70% this year. The percentage of cotton picking in a large cotton ginning plant in Korla area reaches 40%, and the proportion of machine picked cotton in Korla area is over 20%.

In the future, with the development of land circulation, the proportion of machine picked cotton is expected to continue to improve. In the meantime, the proportion of machine harvested cotton increased, and the requirements for processing capacity and site size of cotton ginning plants increased at the stage of centralized cotton marketing, and the processing cycle was extended this year.

The accumulated temperature time was shorter than in previous years, and the horse value and the strength index increased significantly. From the processing index, the horse grade B accounted for 60%, the length 29mm (above) above 70%, the fracture ratio 28 (above) accounted for 60%, even the most of the lint index of a ginning plant in Yuepuhu was "double 30", and the horse value in southern Xinjiang was generally high last year.

New cotton sales in southern Xinjiang are slow, and futures hedging ratio is increasing.

The average price of machine picked cotton in the southern Xinjiang is 6.0-6.2 yuan / kg, the average price of hand picked cotton is 7.0-7.2 yuan / kg, the processing cost is about 1000 yuan / ton, the total cost of picking cotton is 15800-16200 yuan / ton, and the acquisition cost of machine picked cotton is 15300 yuan / ton.

Compared with the overall cost of 15000-15500 in the northern Xinjiang, Xinjiang cotton has a lower price performance ratio, plus current commercial inventories and high industrial inventories. Textile enterprises are not optimistic about the market outlook, and the demand for active replenishment is not large. The spot shipment in southern Xinjiang is obviously worse than the same period in previous years. Some cotton ginning plants have not started to pick up their cotton, and have been trying to find a suitable price for the futures market to find a suitable price.

The purchase price of long staple cotton is high, and both output and quality have declined.

Awati is Xinjiang.

The planting base accounts for 80% of the output of long staple cotton in Xinjiang. Compared with American Pima cotton, the disadvantage of Xinjiang long staple cotton lies in the three silk problem.

It is estimated that the output of Awati long staple cotton will be 6.5-6.7 million tons in 18 years, and the output of long staple cotton in Xinjiang will be about 80 thousand tons, which is basically flat or slightly reduced compared with the same period last year.

This year, the purchase price of long staple cotton is high, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, the length and clothing are low, and the cotton mill is cautious to buy.

The price of seed cotton is 9.2-9.3 in the early stage, and the purchase price of Lu Tai is 10.1 before the mid term national day. The cotton farmers are reluctant to sell the mentality. The price has returned to 9.1-9.2, but the length and the clothes are not good. The acquisition cost is about 26000, the price of lint cotton is upside down, the difference between the long staple cotton and the fine cotton is enlarged to 2 yuan / kg, and the psychological price of the enterprise is 8.5 yuan / kg.

From the index of processing, the average length of long staple cotton (35-36mm) and the overall lint percentage were much lower than that of last year, and Xinhai 44 was the best quality.

Sales, has not yet received orders, and in previous years, Huafang and other enterprises have already ordered, the relevant personages believe that Sino US trade war to reduce the amount of long staple cotton downstream to save cotton costs.

The subsidy policy for textile and garment industry helps to upgrade industries, and the proportion of finished products sold within the yarn is not large.

In Xinjiang

Under the subsidy policy, the spinning production capacity of the territory has increased rapidly, and the focus of cotton spinning has been tilting towards Xinjiang. Only a half year is needed for a cotton mill in Kuche to start from construction to trial operation. It is estimated that the cotton spinning capacity in Xinjiang will account for more than 45 of the total capacity of the country after 2020.

The profits of the territory's cotton mill are generally good. On the one hand, they benefit from the industrial advantages of the enterprises, and on the other hand, they benefit from it.

Textile support policies.

According to the relevant person in charge, as a whole, the cost of spinning electricity and water charges in Xinjiang is 800 yuan / ton, and the labor cost is 800 yuan / ton. According to the 32 combed cotton yarns, the discount rate can be 2000-3000 yuan / ton, which is quite good compared with the mainland's profits.

Spinning capacity policy dividend expansion, at the same time, the downstream fabric clothing end capacity has not yet kept up, from the research of several cotton mills, the yarn finished 90% is still sold to the mainland, only 10% of the share to stay in the digestion, the future needs to pay attention to Xinjiang textile.

Policy changes.