Textile Exports To The US Will Not Decrease Or Increase? Will They Affect Or Will Appear Next Year?

Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute jointly issued the report on China's foreign trade situation (autumn 2018).

The report shows that China's exports to the United States have not declined but increased.

In the first three quarters, China's imports and exports to the US increased by 3 trillion and 60 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, accounting for 13.8% of China's total foreign trade, and the United States remained the second largest trading partner of China.

Among them, China exported 2 trillion and 270 billion yuan to the United States, an increase of 7.4%, and an import of 798 billion 130 million yuan from the United States, an increase of 3.8%.

From the data, Sino US trade continues to grow.

In 1~9 months, China's exports of textiles, raw materials and textiles and clothing to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 8.5%, 3.4% and 4.8% respectively over the same period last year. The growth rate of exports to the United States increased by 9.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

What does this reveal?

1, after the September market instability expectations, the industry chain customers in the first half of the procurement has been completed!

I believe you are no stranger to double eleven. Similarly, the textile market is also very familiar with double eleven. When the double eleven are used in large quantities every year, buyers and sellers will be ready to come in double eleven. In the same period, the price of grey fabric will be pushed to a high level.

According to market research, part

Enterprises and traders began to hoarding fabrics in a large scale after March, with the expectation of the Sino US trade rising to foreign trade tariffs. After September, the orders of foreign trade enterprises were also advanced to August. There was a certain amount of fabric inventory from terminal clothing to traders. When the raw material inventory of the market was saturated, it was obvious that the main clothing and fabric traders in 9 and October did not dare to hoard goods, and the order was naturally slowed down.

As mentioned above, textile market has already done a good job in the double eleven and the Sino US trade war, and at the same time, the impact of the double eleven market is low year by year. Therefore, it is impossible to reach a high level if we want to sell fabrics in double eleven stores.

In the process of garment production, clothing prices are directly related to raw material costs, production losses and labor costs.

According to clothing enterprises, the cost of the down clothing has doubled, the down coat is the main product of the autumn and winter, the price boom and the change of the trend in recent years have caused the clothing enterprises to worry about the fall and winter sales of the down clothes.

In addition, over the last few months, the soaring cost of chemical fiber materials has been increasing. On the one hand, even if the price falls in the near future, there is a lot more space than the price in the first half of the year. At the same time, the market instability makes it difficult for the enterprises to pick up the pricing season. In the case of the normal shipment and the price rise, the market rhythm is disturbed and the traders dare not hoard!

If you want to say that the market has not started, it is unrealistic. Indeed, we can see a hint of the peak season. Some clothing enterprises' orders are still being issued. But why do you look at the orders of weaving factories or the production and marketing of raw materials factories are so depressed? In fact, in the past years, the selling season of hoarding goods in the off-season is normal, but the first half of the year is too hot for traders to store too much goods. In the second half of 9 and October, it is the time of selling goods.

What is frightening is that at present, the garment processing market is also experiencing the change of bird cage, including one of the largest garment production bases in Huzhou, one of the largest garment production bases in the country, and one of the most famous clothing factories in the city of Zhili in the city of Huzhou. In the future, most of the garment processing factories will be eliminated, and most of these small businesses will be supplied by electronic business platforms such as Taobao. Besides, the suppliers of these enterprises are mainly low-end conventional sprinkler products.

On the other hand, upstream polyester and grey fabric are expanding in the first half of this year.

The capacity of the market has been continuously released, and the old capacity has been restarted.

And the production capacity of grey cloth also broke out this year with the great shift of the central and western regions.

At present, it has hit the market of Jiangsu and Zhejiang and led to a vicious competition in the period of overcapacity.

At the same time, the total amount of looms in China increased, and the corresponding facilities such as printing and dyeing factories, chemical fiber factories and finishing facilities in the central and western parts of China will not be sold back to Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Due to the lower cost, the market will be more vulnerable to the market competition and the dangerous signals of excess capacity are being induced.

Although the first three quarters of 2018

It is still growing rapidly, but we need to be vigilant. For 2019, the Canton Fair, which has always been called barometer of import and export trade, reminds exporters: Sino US trade friction still brings greater uncertainty to Sino US bilateral economic and trade relations and even the whole world.

The 124th Canton Fair ended on 4 November.

According to statistics, the total export turnover of this Canton Fair was 206 billion 494 million yuan (equivalent to 29 billion 860 million US dollars), down 1% compared with the same period last year. The volume of exports to the United States decreased by 30.3% compared to the same period last year, to 2 billion 790 million US dollars, and the export to the countries and regions along the "one belt and one road" area was 9 billion 630 million US dollars, up 2.7% over the same period last year, accounting for 32.3% of the total turnover.

Moreover, in the October PMI data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the new orders index for export has been the lowest since 2016, and the impact of Sino US trade war has begun to emerge from the results of entrepreneurial surveys.

In addition, a few years ago, the electricity supplier carnival season will be driven.

Market turnover, but this effect has been weakening since last year. The reason is that in recent years, a large amount of capital has been flowing into real estate, coupled with rising prices.

The higher the price of the brand, the lower the disposable personal consumption of the terminal, the weaker the consumption power.

In the report on China's foreign trade situation (autumn 2018), it pointed out that the rapid growth of imports and exports in the first three quarters provided strong support for the growth of foreign trade throughout the year.

However, the higher import and export base in the fourth quarter of 2017 will have some adverse effects on the growth rate of import and export in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The report also said that in 2019, China's foreign trade development is facing more severe and complex environment, and the risk of downside of the world economy is increasing. Protectionism threatens the steady growth of Global trade.

Industry experts said that from January 1st next year, the United States will increase tariffs on some products to 10% to 25%, increasing the worries of American buyers, and wavering China from a long-term perspective.

The international supply chain with scale advantages has been established, and the major impact on textile and clothing exports is expected to be concentrated in the first half of next year.