The Slowdown In Commodity Prices And Cotton Market Prices Both Slowed Down In The Near Future.

In 2018, China's economy slowed down in the face of the increasingly complex external environment.

Looking around the world, launching protectionism in the United States and facing challenges in the multilateral trading system, the global economy is also facing a risk of deceleration.

The IMF10 report lowered the global economic growth forecast in 2018 and 2019 from 3.9% in April to 3.7%, unchanged from 2017. The author pointed out that the world is still at a high level of growth, but the growth rate is "hitting the top", and the growth prospects of a series of major economies are slowing down, the financial situation has tightened or the risk appetite has suddenly reversed.

Even the domestic economy of the United States is not immune. On the 20 th of this month, the three major indexes of the United States fell sharply, and the annual gains rose.

Since the end of September, the volatility of US stocks has increased.

Worries about the Fed's interest rate increase, trade frictions and global economic slowdown suggest that the "rolling bear market" also comes from the global expansion of domestic interest rates and the lack of synergy.

A series of recent economic data shows that global demand is shrinking.

As a major agricultural product and

Raw materials are affected by the global downturn and the decline in commodity prices. We understand it through data.

First, the decline in commodity prices.

On the 13 th of this month, the main contract of New York light crude oil futures WTI hit a new low of $55.10 / barrel in the past year, and the low point of 20 was refreshed to $52.77 again.

As the most important energy and raw material in the world, crude oil can be called the "leader" of commodities, and its price operation directly reflects the global demand and the trend of economic operation.

The sharp fall from the high level in early October is directly due to oversupply and weakening demand, which is related to the Fed's interest rate hike and the departure of funds, reflecting the anticipated growth of global economic growth.

Since the end of September, the CRB index, which comprehensively reflects commodity futures prices, has continued to decline, and in November 20th it has also reached a low point in more than a year.

The CRB index tracks 19 major commodity futures price movements, which is a good indicator of inflation and reflects the trend of economic development to a certain extent.

Two, textile downstream consumption signals

The price of cotton yarn at home and abroad is the most direct reflection of the downstream market demand of cotton. Since 2018, the price of cotton yarn has experienced a process of top down, and the price of foreign yarn has reached a high level in early July and has begun to fall.

From the point of view of data, the fluctuation of external yarn is very obvious, and the fluctuation range is much higher than that of China. However, the price of cotton has not fluctuated so sharply in the same period, which is the main reason for the high sensitivity of market demand.

The new order index of China's cotton textile industry purchasing managers index (PMI) reflects the new order situation of cotton spinning enterprises.

Under normal circumstances, the index declined significantly in the textile off-season and increased significantly in the peak season, which is exactly what happened last year.

But this year the situation is slightly different, mainly in the 9 and October peak season is obviously not prosperous, only in August, the performance is good, there is the reason for the move of orders, the normal season is very inferior, and Sino US trade friction has a direct relationship.

Three, cotton price operation

Since 2018, the domestic and foreign cotton prices have experienced a process of first rising and then falling. The fluctuation of futures is obviously more than that of spot, and the fluctuation trend is more obvious. Since October, the domestic market has continued to decline. Among them, Zheng cotton has been continuously low, falling to 14335 yuan / ton in September 2016 from 20 days, and basically stable in the international market.