Affected By The Reform And Other Factors, The Cotton Planting Area In The New Year Will Be Steadily Reduced.

With the 2018 cotton sales coming to an end, farmers in the producing areas began planning cotton planting in 2019. From the reporter's understanding of the situation, the enthusiasm of the farmers in 2019 was higher than that of the farmers in the producing areas. However, due to the limited cultivated land in each producing area, it is difficult to increase the planting area of cotton in 2019.


Yan Kui, business manager of Xinjiang Yan Shi Hai Hai Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. told reporters that in 2018, farmers in Xinjiang basically made money by planting cotton. One of the main reasons is that in addition to natural disasters such as low temperature and hail in some parts of the early growth period, the growth time of cotton is smooth and smooth. Two, since the 2018 cotton market has been listed, the price of seed cotton has been relatively stable. In that year, the average price of machine picked cotton in Xinjiang area was about 3 yuan / kg, and the average price of hand picked cotton was about 3.5 yuan / kg, and the risk of falling prices of farmers was less.


"From the survey of our company, we found that in 2019, farmers in some parts of Xinjiang wanted to buy agricultural materials and cotton seeds. Most farmers had higher enthusiasm for planting cotton." According to Yan Kui, the net income of farmers in Xinjiang in 2018 was about 700 yuan per mu, much higher than planting corn and wheat. Due to good returns, farmers are expected to choose cotton planting in 2019.


However, due to the ongoing reform of the relevant institutions in Xinjiang in 2019, and the increase in the intensity of returning farmland to grassland, forestry and pasture, the cotton planting area of Xinjiang in 2019 is difficult to expand effectively, and the cotton planting area in some areas will also decline.


"In recent years, Xinjiang has banned farmers from opening up wasteland, and many cotton fields around the outlying barren land will no longer carry out cotton cultivation. Some areas where cotton has been planted for many years will also have to return farmland to grassland, forest and pasture in 2019. It is estimated that the total area of cotton planting in Xinjiang in 2019 is not too optimistic." Yan Kui said that the local government of Xinjiang is now encouraging farmers to grow red willow on the wasteland, planting 5 years as a time limit, and subsidize 1200 yuan per mu.


According to the reporter's understanding, influenced by factors such as the adjustment of agricultural planting structure and the reform of relevant institutions in Xinjiang, the cost of cotton planting in Xinjiang is not expected to decline substantially in 2019, and the cost of land leasing will also rise. For example, the rent of land related to the original tenant will increase from 300 yuan to 500 yuan per mu. From the analysis of the price trend of agricultural products such as urea, the price of agricultural materials is running at a high level in 2018, and it is expected to come down in 2019, of which urea prices are beginning to descend.


Zhou Dalong, deputy general manager of the Ministry of agricultural products, Lu Xian, told reporters that the proportion of cotton output in the mainland accounts for the total output of the country has been declining. In 2019, whether the cotton planting area in the mainland is increasing or decreasing, it will not have a significant impact on the future trend of cotton prices nationwide. However, although the farmers in the mainland are hard to grow cotton and the degree of mechanization of cotton picking is difficult to upgrade, from the perspective of planting income, the enthusiasm of mainland farmers to grow cotton is still very high. It is estimated that the planting area of the main cotton producing areas in Shandong and Hubei will remain stable in 2019.


According to the reporter, cotton farmers association of China Cotton Association carried out the first cotton planting intention survey in 2019 in 2799 provinces of 12 provinces and autonomous regions in Xinjiang in December 2018. The survey results showed that the cotton planting area in China was 47 million 718 thousand mu, a decrease of 2.7% over the same period last year. Among them: Xinjiang cotton farmers' planting intention decreased by 2.1%, and the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 4.8% and 3.6% respectively. In 2018, the cotton market remained stable, and output increased steadily. However, the uncertainty factors increased, and the purchase price declined. Cotton growers had a big divergence in the market outlook, and cotton planting intention declined. From the perspective of subregion, Xinjiang cotton area is affected by factors such as increased production cost and declining income. Hesitant households are more frequent and cotton planting intention has declined. The cotton sales in the mainland have not been finished yet, but because of the lack of cotton planting labor, the enthusiasm of planting cotton is not high, and the area of intention is reduced, but the reduction is narrowed.