In 2019, The Industry Faced Five Passes. Will It Be More Difficult Than 2018?

Thousands of troops have crossed the single log bridge, summarizing the word in 2018: it is difficult.

At present, the textile industry is facing serious problems, such as financing difficulties, recruitment difficulties, vicious competition, market disruption, heavy burden on enterprises, low profitability and so on. The textile industry is facing severe tests, and the market shuffling is speeding up.

Where is the difficulty?

1, environmental policy normalization, industry shuffle acceleration

Since the outbreak of environmental policy in 2017, all kinds of environmental policies and regulations have been concentrated in 2018. In 2019, environmental protection and high pressure continued. Various environmental protection policies and regulations were implemented successively. A new round of central environmental protection supervision was launched in an all-round way, and environmental normalization became an inevitable trend.

In January 1, 2019, China's first law on soil pollution prevention and control, "soil pollution prevention and control law of the People's Republic of China", was formally implemented.

On the same day, known as "the most stringent in history", the "air pollution prevention and Control Ordinance (Amendment)" of Shanxi province has also been implemented in the strict regulation of pollution prevention and control.

Environmental policy continues to exert force. Just after entering the 2019, 183 printing and dyeing enterprises along the Yangtze River in Shantou have been shut down and shut down. The market of printing and dyeing has been greatly affected. The price of printing and dyeing materials has risen. For example, the price of disperse black ECT300% has increased by 42 yuan /kg, or 2000 yuan / ton, and other conventional varieties of dyes have also risen.

It needs to be pointed out that under the pressure of environmental policy, the elimination of "scattered and polluted" enterprises is remarkable, which purifies the market industry, helps the orderly development of the industry, promotes the sustainable development of the industry, and helps to pform the textile industry, but labor pains are inevitable.

2, the international crude oil market turbulence, PTA rising

The complexity of the international environment, the situation in the Middle East, the changes in the situation, the withdrawal of the United States, the Israeli Palestinian conflict and other issues such as the OPEC, Saudi Arabia and Russia's major crude oil exporters agreed to reduce production ambiguity. Crude oil prices continued to decline, but the recent rebound was evident. After January 1, 2019, the international oil price even welcomed the seven consecutive rise. The PTA market was also rising. The price of its internal market rose to about 6420-6500 yuan / ton, and the negotiation reached 6270-6350 yuan / ton.

Although the price of crude oil can not fully determine the PTA market, there is a certain linkage between them.

3, Sino US trade friction truce, the future trend is unknown.

In December 2018, China and the United States announced a consensus to stop each other from adding new duties, but did not rule out the possibility that the United States would still levy new tariffs. After all, the Trump administration had the possibility of repeating the spirit of "abandoning the contract" which they had repeatedly shown.

Secondly, the supply of textile raw materials is caused by the Sino US trade friction.

The United States is the world's largest exporter of cotton and China's largest importer of cotton.

All along, China's cotton market is in a state of insufficient supply, and a certain amount of cotton needs to be imported to meet the demand gap.

In 2017 1-12, China imported 1 million 153 thousand tons of cotton, of which 506 thousand and 300 tons were imported from the United States, accounting for 44% of total imports.

However, it should be pointed out that the total supply of cotton in China (including end inventory) in 2017 was 12 million 454 thousand tons, the total demand was 7 million 115 thousand tons, and the cotton import volume was 1 million 153 thousand tons, while the number of US cotton imports accounted for only 7.1% of China's demand, accounting for 4.1% of the total supply.

According to data from the US Department of agriculture, China signed a total of 1 million 500 thousand packages of US cotton in 2018, which still indicates that the United States plays an important role in China's cotton import market.

However, the shadow of Sino US trade war has already existed. For some textile enterprises which rely heavily on imported cotton, it is inevitable to take precautionary measures and choose multi-channel supply.

4. The rise of textile industry in Southeast Asia and industrial pfer.

In recent years, the textile and garment industry in Vietnam and Bangladesh has been the most popular in Southeast Asia. Thanks to the continuous improvement of the industrial chain, and the salary level is only half of China's labor cost advantages, Vietnam's textile export enterprises have been favored by more and more European and American businessmen, and some of the orders from European and American markets have shifted to Southeast Asia.

Relying on its mature textile technology, relying on the relatively low labor cost in Southeast Asia and preferential tariff treatment in Southeast Asia, such as Bangladesh's textiles sold to Japan, Canada and Australia, the market enjoys zero tariff treatment, including China.

It is true that under the pressure of overcapacity and domestic environmental policies, some textile enterprises have been fighting for Southeast Asia.

But at the same time, there are many problems in Southeast Asian countries, such as low culture, scattered discipline, low work efficiency, high cost of technical training, excessive wage and salary increase, poor government business environment, and high level of open industry.

5, workers change their minds and come back to the trend.

The rapid development of enterprises in the central and western regions has provided many jobs for local employment personnel. These people do not need to go to other provinces and cities remotely, but they are employed nearby in their hometown. The wages will not be much lower, the consumption level will be low, the accommodation and other expenses will be reduced, the parents and children can also be taken into account, and the labor resources in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will also be reduced to a large extent.

The concept of workers has shifted from salary to rest time. Therefore, there are more and more factories that have been on holiday during the past two years, and the time for Spring Festival holidays in factories is getting longer and longer.

In the past, factories would return to work in order to get a good start.

But now workers resume work time is getting late, factory normal start time is also postponed, now the eighth day is the time for workers to report, normal production is generally to about fifteen of the first month.

Labor shortage, for many textile owners, 19 years after the Spring Festival employment or will be a big problem.

According to experts, in the future, if workers pay more than ten thousand yuan, it is possible to recruit workers to ensure the normal operation of manpower.

With the continuous rise of domestic labor costs and the close employment wage in Europe, the advantage of "demographic dividend" before domestic textile enterprises has gradually decreased, and the advantage of textile enterprises has been greatly weakened.

With the increase of labor costs, the number of home textile enterprises began to gradually reduce the number of employees. On the other hand, in the face of rising labor costs in the textile industry, young people are reluctant to engage in the plight of the textile industry.

What can textile enterprises do in the future to alleviate these problems? Where is the way out?