Cotton City Massive Inventory Suppression Concern Spring Sowing Area

At the beginning of the new year, the cotton market has gradually recovered. The upper and lower reaches have started one after another, and some cotton merchants have quoted foreign prices. Xinjiang cotton's 3128 level quotations are about 15100 yuan to 15500 yuan / ton, which has not changed much compared with that before the Spring Festival. The spot registration increased slightly, and the new registration pressure of the warehouse receipt slightly slowed down. As of February 11th, Zheng cotton registered 17197 warehouse receipts, an increase of 211 compared with a year ago. 1768 effective forecasts were reduced by 194 compared with a year ago. The volume of new increased warehouse volume has slowed down, but a large number of warehouse receipts still have a certain pressure on the market.

In terms of inventory, as of the end of December 2018, cotton business inventories were 4 million 960 thousand tons, up 800 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, the highest level in recent years. Industrial inventories were 870 thousand tons, up 200 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, the highest level in recent years. In January, the processing capacity of new cotton was 150 thousand tons, the monthly consumption was 650 thousand tons, the monthly output was insufficient, and the stock market began to go out. The pressure on the cotton market was reduced, and the market pressure could not be further increased under the tight supply and demand in the whole year, and the kinetic energy was gradually brewing. Of course, the premise is that Sino US trade frictions no longer deteriorate, and terminal demand is gradually smooth. From 14 to 15 February, the two sides will resume talks in Beijing again.

From the perspective of downstream textile enterprises, most of them have not started yet and some raw materials have been purchased before the Spring Festival. Short term demand does not play a significant role and needs to be followed closely.

In the international market, during the Spring Festival holiday, the US Department of Agriculture announced the monthly supply and demand report in February, the global cotton production and consumption reduction in 2018/2019, the end of the stock increase, and the cotton kinetic energy in the international market is still insufficient. Global production has been cut by nearly 300 thousand packages, consumption has been reduced by 2 million packages, ending inventory has increased by 2 million 300 thousand packs, and our country has increased by 2 million packages. Due to the impact of consumption reduction, there are still certain restrictions on the stage market.

As the spring sowing approaches, the market began to pay attention to the planting area this year. The United States National Cotton Association (NCC) issued a report at the annual meeting of 8 to 10 February. In 2019, the United States intended to grow cotton area of 14 million 500 thousand acres, an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year. The domestic cotton plant area is expected to increase slightly in 2019. The national cotton market monitoring system launched a survey on cotton planting intentions in mid June 2019. The survey showed that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang was 35 million 728 thousand mu, up 3.3% over the same period last year, which is also expected to have a restraint on the market before the spring sowing.