The Overall Supply And Demand Of Polyester Staple Fiber Will Be Better Or Slightly Higher.

I. market quotation

According to the price data monitoring of business associations, as of March 5th, the price of 1.4D*38mm polyester staple fiber was 9020 yuan / ton, compared with the price before the year, there was no fluctuation, down 2.63% compared to the same period.

According to the quotations from manufacturers in various regions, the price of polyester and polyester is generally stable at present. The factory quotes are stable. The price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas is about 8600-9200 yuan / ton, and the price in Fujian is 8730-8900 yuan / ton.

The price of Shandong and Hebei is 8750-8900 yuan / ton, and there are tentative pull ups in some areas.

Two, industrial chain situation

The API report showed that crude oil inventories increased by 7 million 300 thousand barrels to 451 million 500 thousand barrels last week, and imports increased by 801 thousand barrels per day to 6 million 900 thousand barrels / day.

Sala oilfield, the main oil field in Libya, has restarted some oil wells and restarted the target production of 80 thousand barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia took the lead in reducing production. Falich, the Minister of energy, believes that the production reduction agreement may be extended in the second half of the year. In addition, OPEC will announce a reduction agreement in the second half of June at a regular meeting held in Saudi Arabia.

Investors still have many uncertainties about the choice of US crude oil price trend, mainly due to the divergence of supply in the US crude oil market and other crude oil markets.

In the short term, the growth of API crude oil inventories is larger than expected. The largest oil field in Libya restarted and the US dollar forced oil prices to bear pressure.

As of March 5th, the spot price of PTA in eastern China was 6678 yuan / ton, up 1.45%, up 0.28% from the same period last year.

At present, the volume of intra day trading of PTA is relatively large, mainly dominated by mainstream goods. Traders are mainly buying and selling. The processing fee of PTA is now 700-720 yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 91%. The supplier's stop shipment has eased the pressure of market supply, but the total PTA supply has not decreased. In March, it is still near the balance of supply and demand, and it is difficult to effectively remove the inventory.

At present, the processing difference of PTA has returned to a relatively low level in the past year, and the new commissioning of PX and the second quarter maintenance have a strong disturbance on the price of PTA, thus making the current inventory pressure eased.

The local production and marketing of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is still available. The average production and sales rate is about 80%, and the start-up rate of polyester is also rising slightly. At present, 86.6% is the continuous increase in raw materials, which leads to the continuous production and marketing of downstream products, and concerns about the sustainability of polyester production and marketing and the implementation of new orders downstream.

The price of downstream polyester yarn has been stable. The price of 32S in Shandong has been maintained at 16200 yuan / ton. The price of Shengze market 32S is 13450 yuan / ton, the price of 21S in Qian Qing market is 13100 yuan / ton, the price of 32S is 13600 yuan / ton, and the market quotation in the Hutang is 13450 yuan / ton.

There has been little change in recent prices, and the downstream market has been on the sidelines since then.

Three, summary

The upstream market is optimistic, and OPEC production is expected to result in stock market expectations. This situation will not change before the Vienna conference in April 18th, and will support prices from the supply side. In the short term, crude oil prices will oscillate back and forth at a high level.

In the long run, the long-term impact of demand is still there, and the price of Saudi Arabia will continue to rise as a result of strong productivity reductions.

PTA traders are gradually shipping, and only a few suppliers are shipping. To a certain extent, they ease the pressure of market supply. Although there is still pressure on inventory, the trend is more optimistic.

The start-up rate of polyester, polyester and Jiangsu and Zhejiang manufacturing machines is also gradually waking up, and production and marketing are improving.

On the whole, the price of PET staple will also go up like the current temperature rise.