Viscose Staple Fiber: Obvious Decline, Negative Profit Space Expansion

In January 2019, following the price change of viscose staple fiber, the market price rebounded slightly. After the festival, the leading enterprises of viscose staple fiber held short orders, and the price of the viscose staple increased by 200-300 yuan / ton, but the duration was relatively short. The market soon fell because the new single demand could not be followed, and the center of gravity dropped. Until today's closing, the viscose staple fiber regular cotton type sourcing negotiations had been reduced to 12800-13200 yuan / ton acceptance, and the low price was 12500-12700 yuan / ton acceptance.

Under the limited cost surface change, viscose staple fiber weight loss caused by the increase, but the current industry is still lack of bottoming confidence, the overall paction volume price of the market is weak.

In terms of the detailed profit situation of the industry chain, the price of viscose staple fiber has been released in 2016 since the price rebounded in 2015. However, the profit of the viscose staple fiber has been negative again since it lasted for more than 1 years. At present, according to the processing fee of 7000 yuan / ton, the average loss per ton of viscose staple fiber is more than 1000 yuan.

The profit of the cotton yarn industry has narrowed down from the shock interval of viscose staple in 2018, and the overall profit has started to improve. If the cost is calculated by the day, the cash flow of R30S will increase by more than 600% in 2017 compared with that in 2017.

Even though the market focus has slipped, the profitability of most cotton yarn models is still considerable.

See the table below for details.

Before the Spring Festival, there was a good sale of R45S grey fabrics, and some weaving factories even sold them for sale. The cumulative price rose by 0.3 yuan / meter. After the festival, orders for 45S fabrics were still good. The production of loom in the Gaomi area increased with the production of R45S grey fabric, which continued to drive the sale of R45S yarn, and even brought the production of Changle spinning enterprises into production.

But the increase of grey cloth supply and the promotion of pre holiday prices, the high price of grey cloth can not be extended. The price of R45S grey cloth has dropped by 0.1 yuan / m, but it still keeps the profit level near 0.3 yuan / M.

Therefore, at present, the profitability of viscose staple fiber industry chain shows a triangular shape, and the profit level of industrial chain is concentrated in the downstream.

The main reasons for this phenomenon are mainly several points. First, the price of viscose staple fiber in the second half of 2017 is falling rapidly due to the expected production. The majority of cotton yarn has a deficit in raw material inventory, so the raw material purchase rhythm has begun to become more cautious.

Secondly, the productivity of viscose staple fiber industry increased significantly in 2018. However, in 2018, there were limited varieties of pure cotton spun yarn sold, and the production of TR yarn products was adjusted by Gaomi and other spinning enterprises, and the consumption of viscose staple fiber decreased.

Finally, in 2019, there were still more than 500 thousand tons / year production capacity planned and put into operation, resulting in a strong bias towards viscose staple fiber industry, thus driving the downward pfer of industrial profits.