Cotton Prices In The Future Are Expected To Go Up To Exceed Expectations Of Chemical Fiber Production Capacity.

Reducing the burden of textile enterprises and reducing the price of cotton yarn

On March 5th, the opening session of the two session of the thirteen National People's Congress was held in the Great Hall of the people in Beijing. The government's work report announced that a larger scale of tax cuts would be implemented, and the current 16% tax rate in manufacturing industries dropped to 13%.

Lowering taxes and lightening the burden will have a positive impact on business and profits. It may also play a role in reducing the price of cotton and cotton yarn in the future.

Taking textile enterprises as an example, assuming that the selling price of 1 tons of cotton yarn is about 24000 yuan / ton, the cotton yarn price excluding tax is 24000/1.16=20690 yuan / ton before the tax rate adjustment, and the sales tax is 20690*16%=3310 yuan / ton.

After adjustment, assuming that the sale price of cotton yarn has not changed, the cotton yarn does not contain a tax price of 24000/1.13=21239 yuan / ton after the adjustment of the tax rate, and the sales need to pay a value-added tax of 21239*13%=2761 yuan / ton. The difference between the two is 549 yuan / ton.

For enterprises, the burden reduction is not small.

Of course, the above is only a rough calculation.

Cotton prices are expected to go up in the future

The market is coming to the socialization inventory stage, and cotton prices are expected to go up in the future.

According to USDA's forecast for the new year, the world's cotton production is expected to increase by 6.9% to 27 million 542 thousand and 200 tons over the current year, which is only 0.6% lower than the 27 million 694 thousand and 200 tons in 2011/12, the highest level in history.

2019/20 expects global cotton production to be higher than consumption. The end inventory will therefore increase by about 217 thousand and 700 tons. Cotton acreage and yield are projected to increase, and total output will increase by 6.8%. The global cotton consumption will continue to increase, but the plan is slightly lower than the average annual growth rate.

The pace of global cotton going inventory is likely to be interrupted in 2019/20.

Chemical fiber

Acrylonitrile prices are rising gradually

According to relevant statistics, up to now, the Shanghai port's acrylonitrile port outlet price reference is 12700 yuan / ton, and the East China port is very few, and the business quotation is 12800 yuan / ton nearby, even the high price.

Nylon industry

In the Asia Pacific spinning nylon elastic fabric, there is a very special fabric -- recycled fabric.

General fabric price is about 15 yuan per meter, this recycled fabric sells for more than 30 yuan per meter.

This fabric has many functions such as moisture absorption, perspiration, antibacterial, odorless, electrostatic absorption and so on. It is generally available to high-end brand customers such as Adidas and Nike.

PTA capacity forecast from 2019 to 2020

In the next three years, the new capacity of PTA will reach 20 million 700 thousand tons.

It is expected that 6 million 500 thousand tons will be put into operation in 2019, and 13 million 200 thousand tons will be put into operation in 2020.

It is estimated that nominal capacity of China's PTA will reach 58 million 250 thousand tons in 2019, the actual capacity of China's domestic PTA will reach 43 million 400 thousand tons, CR5 will be 61.2%, the industry's top five and market share will be Yisheng 23.2%/ Hengli petrochemical, 15.6%/ Fuhai, 10.6%/, Tong Kun petrochemical 6.4%/, Hua Bin petrochemical 5.5%, and the number of manufacturers reaching 1 million tons / year will increase to 15.

China's PTA capacity is expected to reach 71 million 450 thousand tons in 2020, CR5 is 58%, and the top five industries and market share are Yisheng 23.5%/ Hengli petrochemical 16.2%/ Fuhai, Chuang 8.6%/, Tong Kun petrochemical 5.2%/ Hua Bin petrochemical 4.5%, and the number of manufacturers whose capacity reaches 1 million tons / year is further increased to 18.

As of September 2018, the nominal capacity of China's polyester yarn industry totaled 36 million 340 thousand tons, CR6 was 51.7%, the industry's top six and nominal capacity market share were: Tong Kun 14.9%, Heng Yi 13.7%, new Feng Ming 9.1%, Sheng Hong 5.2%, Hengli 4.8%, Rongsheng 4%.

The market share of the top five polyester filament industry in the next three years is generally on the rise except Sheng Hong. The new capacity in the next three years will come from almost all the leading industries.

In the next three years, the polyester filament industry has increased by 7 million 770 thousand tons.