2019 Or Best Year PTA Market Is Expected To Strengthen In April.

Recently, the domestic PTA market ushered in a sharp decline. Although the focus of the oil market has been rising, the new capacity of PX will soon be released to the market. The pressure on futures contracts is heavier, and the spot market has dropped to varying degrees. However, with the disappearance of bad news, there are several sets of devices waiting to be repaired in the recent PTA, and the downstream filament will enter the traditional peak season in April. The industry expects that the two quarter of PTA will become a tight balance, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen and usher in the business cycle.

The supply impact of PTA capacity in 2019 has basically ended.

The supply impact of PTA capacity in 2019 has basically ended.

In February, the capacity of 2 million 250 thousand tons of Fuhua chemical industry and trade was basically put to the end of the new PTA supply.

As for the pmission of the Sichuan Shengda 1 million 100 thousand ton plant at the end of March, we plan to charge half of the load. We think that the impact on the market is not large. The raw material problem remains to be solved and the cost is high.

According to statistics, at present, the domestic operating rate is maintained at around 89.03%. From the above table, we can see that the PTA parking facilities have been resumed in the early stage, and at the beginning of the first quarter and the beginning of the two quarter, there are still several sets of devices that are facing overhaul, with capacity of about 5 million 975 thousand tons, and losses of about 240 thousand tons. At the same time, there are still uncertainties in the device maintenance. From the data point of view, the supply of PTA in the two quarter has dropped slightly, to a certain extent, to digest the accumulated inventory in the first quarter, and to restore the balance of supply pressure in the short term or to ease the market supply pressure when demand recovery is better.

The consumption of PTA will be guaranteed in the peak season of polyester demand in April.

4-6 months is the peak season for polyester filament demand, and 2 million 230 thousand tons of production capacity will be added. PTA consumption can be guaranteed.

The traditional peak season for filament is 4-6 months, 9-11 months.

Taking 2018 as an example, the average monthly operating level of polyester in 2018 was 3-6, 87.62%, 90.07%, 90.92% and 89.99%, respectively, and the start-up of polyester was increasing gradually, so the consumption of PTA would be guaranteed.

In addition, in the first half of 2019, the capacity of filaments increased considerably, reaching 2 million 230 thousand tons (considering some short fibers), which corresponded to 2 million tons of PTA demand.

With the steady progress of production and marketing in polyester market, stock pressure of polyester factories has been further reduced.

The overhaul of the PTA plant eased the market supply pressure to a certain extent, and the demand side recovered better. Especially in the early March, after the Spring Festival of the terminal weaving factory, a round of centralized replenishment was carried out. Polyester production and marketing were hot, and most of the stocks were digested, and the overall demand of the industrial chain was improved.

Driven by the double benefits of supply and demand, PTA entered the inventory cycle.

As of 15 days, PTA social inventory maintained 1 million 217 thousand tons.

Although the PTA inventory level is still at a high level, the trend of inventory conversion is expected to continue under the expectation of overhaul and downstream maintenance.

On the whole, in the two quarter, domestic PTA plant installations may still be centralized overhauled, and at the same time, driven by the double profits of supply and demand side, PTA is expected to continue to be stocking. Therefore, in the two quarter, the forecast of PTA supply pattern or from loose to tight balance.

Industry leader Hengyi Petrochemical 13 accept the agency research, said that in 2019, PTA raw material PX entered the capacity expansion cycle, the supply is loose, providing a good cushion for PTA profits to enter the continuous rise cycle.

Downstream polyester fiber production and marketing stability, demand continues to warm up, for the PTA price gap repair provides a stable demand side support.

It is expected that the PTA market will be more closely balanced, and the market space of PTA will be more optimistic. The PTA benefits will continue to rise in the future.

PTA:2019 or the best year!

Beginning in 2017, benefiting from the strong growth of downstream polyester demand and the promotion of the industry's own supply side reform, the PTA industry has come to a revival and entered a boom and up cycle.

We believe that the 2018-2019 year is the slow release period of domestic PTA industry, and the new production capacity is relatively small. With the steady growth of demand, the supply and demand pattern has gradually been reversed, and PTA has gradually entered the seller's market from the buyer's market, and the bargaining power along the industrial chain has been significantly enhanced.

Moreover, 2019 is the first year of China's private large-scale refining and chemical projects. With the commissioning of the large refining and chemical projects, the domestic PX supply capability will be significantly enhanced, and the strong bargaining position of the industrial chain will gradually shift from PX to PTA mitigation.

Therefore, the domestic PTA industry will usher in the best profit improvement period in 2019, and the profitability of PTA links in the polyester industry chain will be enhanced.

In the past 2008-2017 years, PTA's capacity has gone through two explosive expansion.

In 2012, the PTA production capacity increased by 32 million 960 thousand tons / year, up 64.1% compared with the same period last year, while the apparent consumption in the same year was only 25 million 681 thousand tons, and the phenomenon of PTA overcapacity began to show.

In 2015, the Far East Petrochemical Company of Shaoxing was declared bankrupt, and Xiang Lu petrochemical company also stopped production due to the accident of upstream PX device, and the industry completed its capacity clearance and entered the recovery period.

From 2017 to 2018, partial production capacity was resumed, and the two phase of Tung Kun Jiaxing Petrochemical was put into operation. The PTA industry completed the reconstruction of the capacity pattern, and the concentration of the leading industry continued to improve.

PTA leaders are seeking expansion in the near future to share the market dividend of PTA price rise.

Oriental Rainbow

The Oriental Sheng Hong announced in March 9th that the company intends to acquire about 100% yuan of the Sheng Hong refining and petrochemical company jointly held by Sheng Hong and Sheng Hong petrochemical in Suzhou for about 1 billion 11 million yuan in cash.

The Dongfang Hong Hong said that it will be placed in a 16 million ton / year refining and chemical integration project by the purchase of Hong Hong.

The total investment of the project is estimated at 77 billion 475 million yuan, mainly including 16 million tons / year oil refining, 2 million 800 thousand tons / year for PX, 1 million 100 thousand ton / year ethylene project.

It was launched in December 14, 2018 and is expected to be put into operation in 2021.

It is understood that the PX in the project will mainly be used for personal use.

To this end, the company will be equipped with the corresponding PTA assets before it is put into operation in 2021.

At that time, Dongsheng Hong will run the whole industrial chain, balance the cycle fluctuations of all links, and enhance competitiveness.

Tong Kun shares

Tong Kun intends to invest about 16 billion yuan to build a petrochemical polyester integrated project to form an annual production capacity of 2 x 2 million 500 thousand tons of PTA and 900 thousand tons of FDY, and to start the four annual production of 300 thousand tons of green fiber project and the annual intelligent production of 500 thousand tons of super simulation fiber project.

Tong Kun shares said that in recent years, the company's polyester chemical fiber rapid development, PTA self-sufficiency rate is seriously insufficient, the expansion of PTA basically all self occupied.

On the other hand, there are more than 1000 varieties of filament, and we need to constantly introduce new products in order to meet the changing needs of textile and garment styles and win the market.

New Feng Ming

Tongxiang's new Feng Ming is also planning to expand its territory with tung Kun shares.

New Feng Ming announced in March 7th that it plans to launch the two phase of the Dushan energy 2 million 200 thousand annual green intelligent PTA project.

The project is one of the four projects raised by new Feng Ming.

The increase has been accepted by the SFC.

At present, the company has launched the first phase of the two phase of Dushan energy, the annual 2 million 200 thousand tons green intelligent PTA project.

Heng Yi petrochemical

Hengyi Petrochemical has been in the Brunei distribution and petrochemical integration project, the main production company needed chemical raw materials PX and ethylene glycol and other petrochemical products.

Heng Yi petrochemical in March 5th accepted institutional investors research, said Brunei project progressed smoothly, the overall progress of the project has completed more than 90%.

Rongsheng chemical industry

Rongsheng Chemical Holdings Zhejiang petrochemical, Zhejiang petrochemical Zhoushan "40 million tons / year refining and chemical integration project" under construction.

The company said it was equivalent to rebuilding a Rongsheng chemical industry after completion.

The company has always focused on project reserves, and will expand production of PTA projects according to specific circumstances.

The company disclosed that it is now fully sold.