Lido And Bad Luck Intertwined PTA Price Trend Short-Term Shock Finishing

Recently, the PTA futures market has been sorted and sorted. Because of the continuous decline in PX prices, the support for PTA has weakened. However, the maintenance of the PTA device is quite strong, and the downstream polyester start-up is high. The demand for PTA is stable, and polyester production and sales have picked up, supporting the PTA price.

On the other hand, the demand for terminal factories is weak, and it is difficult to keep the production and marketing of polyester continuously better. The follow-up of PTA equipment needs to be followed up.

So what will happen to the trend of PTA under the combination of many advantages and disadvantages?

Upstream PX or continue to fall

In the short term, international oil prices or uplink and PX cost side support is good.

But Hengli Petrochemical 1 PTA 2 million 200 thousand tons / year installed in the short stop, 3 lines and another 2 million 200 thousand ton / year installation, the new line of Tung Kun petrochemical and Zhuhai BP 1 million 250 thousand tons / year equipment, there are maintenance plans in 3 and April, weak demand for raw material PX, Malaysia aromatics and Vietnam Yi Shan oil refining inspection this week, but Singapore's Exxon Mobil Corp first line device is restarted, Fuhai innovation capacity is released, Hengli petrochemical PX new capacity is on the way, supply and demand pressure is increasing, and the PX market is expected to continue to decline in the short term.

Overhaul of PTA unit

By March 21st, the PTA operation rate was 82.51%. In the later stage, the 1 operation of the Hengli Petrochemical Company, the 1 line short shutdown, the 3 line and the 2 million 200 thousand ton / year plant, the Zhuhai new BP line, and the 1 million 250 thousand tons / year installation of the BP 1 million 250 thousand tons / year in April, have been overhauled in 3 and April. The Hengli petrochemical company has 1 PTA 2 million 200 thousand tons / year installed in March 20th for short stop. It is expected that a short stop of three or four days, a 3 PTA 2 million 200 thousand ton / year device, a planned overhaul of March 28, 2019, and a maintenance of about 80 days, is planned to overhaul a trap ton / year installation in April. Cut-off

At the same time, polyester entered a new cycle of inventory.

In a short time, it will be good for PTA.

Downstream or entry stage replenishment cycle

After 88.62% years, the start-up load of polyester has increased steadily, and the polyester load has been raised to about 10%.

By the end of last week, the production and sales rate of filaments in March had reached 84%, the same as last year's level.

In the past 10 days, the average production and sales of filaments also reached about 80%, and the demand for terminal was revival.

There was a round of centralized replenishment of terminals at the end of the year, and there was no centralized replenishment after the year.

Taking into account the two quarter PTA device overhaul, polyester load recovery, then PTA will enter the inventory cycle.

Polyester loading

Comprehensive description: supply and demand, the current PTA inventory pressure is not large, and PTA is about to enter the maintenance season, polyester load is at a higher level, downstream demand is better, the two quarter PTA is in the inventory stage.

Cost side, the Hengli petrochemical PX plant put into operation faster than expected in the past. The downward displacement of the cost is a drag on the formation of PTA. It is expected that the PTA price will be sorted out in the short term.

(source: Founder medium, Chaoyangmen chemical)