A Number Of PTA Factories Postponed The Overhaul Plan.

In March, a plan of overhaul of the boiling water fired the enthusiasm of futures bulls. From the chart, we can see that in the first half of the year, the overhaul device involved over 19 million tons of capacity, and the credibility of the market rumors was relatively high.

At the same time, the downstream polyester is expected to increase in the first quarter. From the perspective of simple logical demand, it seems that PTA is tight and the market has a strong atmosphere.

Today, there are frequent reports in the PTA market, and several PTA installations originally scheduled for maintenance in 4-5 have been adjusted.

1, Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons / year PTA device currently load at 8, originally planned to overhaul 15 days in May, temporarily postponed, the specific maintenance date depends on the processing fee.

2, Yizheng chemical fiber 650 thousand tons / year PTA device is currently running steadily, originally planned to overhaul 15 days in April, is temporarily pending, the specific maintenance time will continue to follow up.

In addition to the above official announcement of the device changes, there will be variations in the implementation of a 2 million 200 thousand ton / year device in Dalian in April. A 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA installation in Zhejiang will probably be discounted for 2-3 weeks.

With the cancellation or shortening of the PTA maintenance, the absolute supply of PTA will increase in 4-5 months, and the supply and demand structure will also be significantly adjusted.

The announcement of the news led to a high jump in the main contract of PTA futures.

The main contract ended 1905, the recent sharp rise in the market, to a sharp decline in the afternoon, ended at 6428 points, compared with the previous trading day fell 1.38%.

Judging from what is known, maintenance is expected to be cancelled by other PTA factories at any time.

The major mainstream PTA enterprises still have the expectation of canceling the overhaul. In the expectation of some factory maintenance, do not belittle the actions of these factories. After all, the circle of PTA is still a bit complicated.

At present, it seems that the supply and demand logic is invalid. Why does PTA factory face up?

This round of PTA market started in March 19th and just half a month in April 1st.

Within half a month, PTA1905 rose from 6310 to 6542, or 3.68%.

Since the commissioning of the Hengli Petrochemical reformer, PX has entered the downstream channel. As of March 25th, CFR China PX closed at 1037 US dollars / ton, down 83.92 US dollars / ton compared with the beginning of the month, or 7.49%.

The profit level has also been reduced to around 180 US dollars / ton. The PX-PTA- polyester industry chain profit pmission point of view, if the PX processing zone narrowed, the big probability profit will be pmitted to the lower end.

The end of the cost side plus its own price increase has enabled the PTA processing area to expand. Since last week, the PTA processing area has entered the 1000 yuan mark.

The change of supply and demand pattern of raw materials leads to the downward trend of industrial value chain.

In line with the pattern of tight PTA in the early stage, the expansion of PTA processing interval has become the trend of market recognition.

The industry thinks that the reasonable processing interval of PTA will gradually expand, which will be higher than the average processing interval of 794 yuan / ton in the first quarter of 2019, and the same will be higher than that of PTA average processing interval of 965 yuan / ton in 2018.

As we all know, processing difference logic is the main logic affecting the price of PTA. Higher processing error will promote manufacturers to actively produce, increase hedging, increase supply, increase absolute price pressure, and low processing error will prompt manufacturers to overhaul, reduce the hedging, reduce supply, and absolute price support will become stronger.

With the PTA processing area entering the 1000 yuan mark, the excessively high processing area naturally increased the enthusiasm of PTA factory production, so the PTA factory postponed the original maintenance plan and turned it around.

PTA the excessively high processing zone increases production enthusiasm, and the low PX processing interval will also suppress the enthusiasm of raw material production. The development of the industrial chain is also seeking a balance in the continuous game. Especially after the end of the production storm, the market will seek a new balance point.

But Xiaobian wants to remind that the upstream industry chain has been redistributing the profits of the supply chain by taking advantage of its dominant position in the circulation chain.

But the downstream market lacks leadership and allows it to be slaughtered.

The expected supply and cost of raw materials and other factors have been amplified by various parties, breaking the market stability pattern, and constantly exploring the downstream. This situation is not to be desired, and the downstream market needs more stable and stable products and prices than prices.