Forecast 4-5 Month PTA Social Inventory From Capacity And Operating Rate

At present, PTA has 45 million 780 thousand tons of capacity, 54 million 960 thousand tons of polyester production capacity, the ratio of PTA production capacity to polyester production capacity is 1:0833, and the consumption ratio of polyester to PTA is 1:0855, that is to say, PTA production capacity has not been able to keep up with polyester production capacity.

In the case of PTA and polyester working rate, PTA is in the out of stock state.

In March 29th, the operating rate of PTA was 87.73%, and the utilization rate of polyester was 92.9%. Obviously, PTA was in a state of de stocking.

How much stock can PTA go to?

Now let's make a simple calculation in 4-5 months.

First, the 4-5 month is the peak season for textile industry, and the starting rate of polyester should be maintained at the current 92.9%.

And what about PTA?

4-5 months, Hengli petrochemical, Yisheng Dalian, BP Zhuhai, Jiaxing petrochemical, Ningbo Taiwan chemical plant, Yizheng chemical fiber, and Fuhai Chuang and many other plant maintenance, so PTA's operating rate is still maintained by the current 87.73%.

Therefore, according to PTA production capacity of 45 million 780 thousand tons, operation rate of 87.73%, polyester production capacity of 54 million 960 thousand tons and operating rate of 92.9% to calculate, 45 million 780 thousand tons / year x 87.73% year December / year -5496 tons / year x 92.9%x0.855 / December / year =-29 million tons / month, therefore, 4-5 months PTA total 580 thousand tons of inventory.

Taking into account the new capacity factor, Sichuan Shengda 1 million 200 thousand tons in 4-5 months has been effective PTA production 100 thousand tons.

Polyester 4-5 months temporarily estimated no new capacity put into operation.

In this way, 4-5 months PTA forecast to stock 480 thousand tons.

To sum up, assuming that the operating rate of PTA and pet in 4-5 months will basically remain at the current level of 87.73% and 92.9%, PTA will go to stock 480 thousand tons.

At the beginning of April, the PTA social inventory of 1 million 200 thousand tons was calculated, and the social inventory of PTA will be reduced to 720 thousand tons at the end of 5.