Before February, The Export Volume Of China'S Textile And Clothing Decreased By 11.6% Compared With The Same Period Last Year.

This year, the momentum of sustained global economic growth still exists, but downside risks are increasingly prominent.

According to the analysis of the China Federation of textile industry, the external environment facing the economic operation of the textile industry in 2019 is more and more complex and severe, and the operating pressure will also increase significantly. It is expected that the growth rate of the main operational indicators will be down compared with that in 2018, and the pressure of export growth will be particularly prominent.

According to customs statistics, in 2019 1~2 months, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 38 billion 155 million US dollars, down 11.6% from the same period last year, of which the total export volume of textiles was 17 billion 380 million US dollars, down 7.8% compared with the same period last year. The total export volume of clothing was 20 billion 775 million US dollars, down 14.6% from the same period last year.

International market downside risks increase

In 2019, the development trend of international economy and market demand became more complicated.

On the one hand, the driving force of economic growth still exists.

At present, the global employment situation is at a historical high level, which helps to form a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion and gradual growth of corporate profits, household income, consumption expenditure and production investment.

On the other hand, the downside risks of the global economy are obvious.

Affected by factors such as liquidity contraction and tight international trade situation, the sustainability of the recovery trend of the developed economies is expected to decline, and the market vulnerability of emerging economies is highlighted.

According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2019, the level of global economic growth will slow from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019, and the slowdown in developed economies will be larger than that in emerging economies.

Although the export market structure of China's textile industry is increasingly diversified, the proportion of the three traditional markets in the United States, Europe and Japan is still around 40%. After considering the export of some of the upstream products such as chemical fiber and fabrics to the emerging market, the products will eventually flow into the developed countries. The market demand of the international market, especially the developed economies, will slow down, which will lead to a significant increase in the export pressure of the textile industry. It is estimated that the total export volume of China's textile and clothing will be lower in 2019 than in 2018.

Domestic demand growth will slow down.

In 2019, the pressure of China's macro-economic operation has also increased. The slowdown in external demand is expected to be obvious. The negative effects of Sino US trade frictions are gradually emerging, which will further increase export pressure and thus have a negative impact on domestic employment, investment and final consumption.

Under the external environment of "worry about change", the central economic work conference still made important judgments that China's development is still in a long-term and important strategic period. It shows that China's generally stable macroeconomic environment and the continuously upgraded domestic demand market will still provide the basic driving force for the textile industry's innovation and development.

Although the slow economic growth will restrict residents' income growth, the consumer confidence and consumption intention in the domestic market are still at a good level. With the new round of tax reform promoting the residents' income and promoting the formation of a strong domestic market, the relevant domestic market environment is still expected to remain basically stable and the opportunity to tap the potential of domestic demand upgrading still exists.

It is estimated that domestic textile and clothing sales will continue to grow steadily in 2019, and the growth rate will be slightly slower than that in 2018.

Multi pressure test industry anti risk ability

While the growth of domestic and foreign demand is slowing down and the pressure of market sales is increasing, the textile industry is facing a series of other factors, including the development pressure of comprehensive cost upgrading, shortage of labor structure, strict supervision of environmental protection and so on. There are also some uncertain factors such as Sino US trade friction and liquidity tightening.

The more prominent factors are: first, the impact of Sino US trade friction can not be ignored.

Although the amount of tax related products exported to the US is limited at the present stage, the uncertainty of the international trade environment of the textile industry has been greatly improved, which not only directly affects export orders, enterprise confidence and related production and employment, but also will have a potential impact on the international procurement pattern and the international division of labor and investment layout structure of China's textile industry.

Two, the situation of environmental protection is becoming more and more serious.

In 2019, the laws and regulations on soil pollution control and the public participation in environmental impact assessment will enter into the implementation phase. The second round of environmental supervision will start soon, and the pollutant discharge permit system will cover all key industries.

Although the state clearly stipulates that regulatory measures must not be "one size fits all", in the work plan of the local environmental protection departments, it is still mandatory for all printing and dyeing enterprises in the area to stop polluting and stop production in view of problems such as excessive pollutant concentration, excessive sludge volume and centralized development in the park.