Multiple Heavy Events Erupted During The Festival. After The Holidays, Chemical Fiber Market Fear Great Changes!

During the Qingming holiday, The ninth round of high-level consultation on Sino US trade and economic cooperation ended smoothly, the US non-agricultural data announcement exceeded expectations, crude oil prices were innovated, and a number of heavy signals were released in the international market. At the same time, Xiangshui, Jiangsu, "3. 21" particularly major explosion accident has made the latest progress, Xiangshui chemical industry park will be completely closed. On the other hand, the maintenance of PTA devices has entered a troubled period, and is still complicated and confusing.

With the end of the holiday, how will the chemical fiber market be interpreted after the Qingming Festival?

The first and ninth rounds of Sino US economic and trade consultations were successfully concluded, and the non-agricultural data exceeded expectations.

During the Ching Ming holidays, the macro market information of the international market deserves market attention. On the one hand, the US non farm data exceeded expectations. The US Labor Department announced on Friday that the number of non farm employment in the United States increased by 196 thousand people in March, exceeding the expected 177 thousand people, and the unemployment rate in March was 3.8%, which was in line with expectations. It was unchanged from last month's data, the salary growth rate was not as good as expected, and the number of non-agricultural employment was revised to 33 thousand.

On the other hand, the ninth round of Sino US economic and trade consultations released heavy signals. According to Xinhua news agency, the latest consultations were fruitful and reached a new consensus on important issues such as economic and trade agreement texts. The two sides discussed new progress in technology spanfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff measures, service industry, agriculture, trade balance, and implementation mechanism.

Two, significant performance in the bulk commodity market: cloth oil exceeded 70 US dollars / barrel.

In the context of a favorable macroeconomic environment, the financial market has also been boosted. European and American stock markets rose on Friday, with US stocks hitting a new high for six months, of which US energy shares collectively rose, Exxon Mobil rose 0.55%, Chevron rose 1.28%, ConocoPhillips rose 1.46%, Schlumberger increased 2.04%, and EOG energy rose 5.31%.

The commodity market performance is also significant. The United States and cloth two oil rose double over 1%, cloth oil broke through 70 U.S. dollars / barrel, the US oil broke through 63 U.S. dollars / barrel, all continued to brush the new high since last November.

As the source of the chemical industry chain, the upward price of oil will play a supporting role in the overall price of chemical fiber products.

"From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the rebound of the entire chemical industry is largely affected by the rise in crude oil price at the end of the cost. During the Qingming holidays, the international crude oil price increase is close to 2%, and the cost side will support the product price more significantly." Jinshi futures analyst Huang Liqiang believes that from the current supply and demand situation, with the arrival of the peak season of consumption, chemical stocks are expected to decline, supply and demand will further improve the situation, superimposed upstream crude oil prices rise, the price trend of the whole species will show a strong trend.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the energy and chemical sector has received constant attention from the market. On the one hand, the crude oil market has frequently appeared in the short and short game pattern; on the other hand, the successive outbreak of safety accidents has caused chemical industry varieties to be in deep water.

Three, Jiangsu completely shut down the Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park, affecting the geometry of the chemical fiber market?

It is understood that at the end of 3, an accident occurred at a chemical plant in the Xiangshui ecological park of Jiangsu. Then, Kunshan and Taixing in Jiangsu were bombed in March 31st and April 3rd respectively. Jiangsu province immediately launched a large-scale chemical industry and chemical industry park safety inspection and renovation.

According to the latest news of Xinhua news agency, Yancheng, Jiangsu, held 4 Municipal Committee of the Standing Committee pointed out that the Xiangshui chemical industry park will be completely shut down.

Jiangsu Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park has been completely closed. At present, the chemical market is panicked and fluctuated. The price surge seems to have arrived. Some of the products have even doubled. Analysts predict that this rally will continue for a long time.

Many chemical industry analysts believe that in the long term, the explosion will have an impact on the entire chemical industry, and related safety checks will be strengthened, and the supply side will be greatly affected. Subdivision, directly affecting the supply of chemical fiber raw materials and dyestuffs, leads to the price rise of related products and the imbalance of supply.

1, the price of pure MDI of spandex raw material is doubled.

In March 28th, the MDI price of Wanhua chemical April will be raised again. The Wanhua chemical China regional aggregate MDI distribution market has a listing price of 17800 yuan / ton (up to 2600 yuan / ton than the March price), the selling price of the direct selling market is 18300 yuan / ton (up to 2800 yuan / ton than the March price), and the pure MDI listing price is 26200 yuan / ton (up 1500 yuan / ton than the March price). This is the third price increase of Wanhua chemical MDI since its opening in 2019.

According to relevant data, from December 25, 2018 to March 25, 2019, the price of aggregated MDI dealers in East China increased from 11575 yuan to more than 15000 yuan in 3 months. According to the three quarterly report of Wanhua chemical, the company still has 8 billion yuan in stock.

2, dye prices rose sharply

As the upstream raw material MDI has risen sharply, at present, polyurethane TPU and other products are also rising due to the rising cost. Shanghai Heng An polyurethane Limited by Share Ltd recently issued the circular letter: from March 28, 2019 onwards, the price of Heng brand polyurethane products increased by 1000 yuan / ton.

Compared with the impact of the Jiangsu explosion on Wanhua chemical, many dye intermediates are the most direct undertakers. After launching a nationwide safety inspection, some areas will face emergency shutdown.

Up to now, there are 7 enterprises in Henan, Zhejiang, Jinhua, Yancheng City, Suzhou, Suqian, Weifang, Dongguan and other thousands of enterprises to implement the policy of stopping production. The major impact of the accident, coupled with the emergency shutdown of some enterprises, led to a sharp rise in market dye and some raw materials prices. Zhejiang Longsheng is currently the "largest" supplier of benzene two amine in the industry. Recently, the price of core intermediate two amine increased by 4 days and 3 trading.

It is understood that since the "3. 21" explosion accident in Jiangsu, not only affects the dye, but also the most important part of textile port, printing and dyeing is the first to bear the brunt. Some scarce products affect the price of resins, adhesives and pesticides. Some manufacturers stopped offering quotations.

Three, PTA entered the troubled times, the device maintenance is still confusing.

At the same time, at the end of the month and early April, the news of domestic PTA plant maintenance overflew, making PTA experience the roller coaster market. At present, PTA has entered a troubled period. The device maintenance is still complicated.

1. Maintenance of constant force PTA plant

In March 28th, Hengli set up a 2 million 200 thousand ton plant according to plan. The news is that PTA, which is quiet in the weak market, is facing a small rebound. East China's main port spot rose from 6450 yuan / ton to 6640 yuan / ton, or 2.86%. The rally lasted 3 working days.

2, Yizheng and Fuhai PTA plant maintenance plan postponed

In April 2nd, Yizheng Petrochemical 650 thousand tons PTA plant was originally planned to overhaul 15 days in June, and now postponed the plan. At the same time, Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons PTA plant was originally planned to repair for half a month in May, and now postponed the plan. The two news came out, and PTA ended its uptrend and began to turn around. East China's main port spot dropped from 6640 yuan / ton to 6420 yuan / ton, or 3.43%. The decline lasted for 2 working days.

3. Part PTA factory announces maintenance plan

In the morning of April 4th, Hengli Petrochemical announced that the 1# line 2 million 200 thousand tons PTA plant was scheduled to be overhauled for 15 days in April 15th. A set of 2 million 200 thousand tons of Jiaxing petrochemical plant was scheduled to be overhauled for 15-20 days in April 8th. As a result of this news, the PTA market began to rebound again, but the resilience was relatively small, and the stock of East China's main port rose from 6420 yuan / ton to 6480 yuan / ton.

4, Fuhai repair plant maintenance plan implemented on schedule

In the afternoon of April 4th, Fuhai announced 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA plant, because the condensate oil was cut off in May. At first, the May maintenance plan was implemented on schedule. As a result of this news, the PTA market rose sharply, and the spot price of East China's main port once again rose to more than 6600 yuan by 15:00.

It is understood that 4-5 months of domestic PTA plant maintenance overhaul, the supply is expected to reduce, while the downstream polyester demand is good, the market has positive support, in the short term, PTA spot market or maintain high and volatile; but raw material PX new production to the market still suppressed, therefore, in the long run or weakness may exist.