Zheng Cotton'S Breakthrough From The Perspective Of The Purchase And Sale Of Textiles From The Two Lakes

First, after another, "peak season is not prosperous."

Since the beginning of the year, it was originally the traditional "textile small peak season" in March and April, and the yarn purchase and sale fever was different everywhere.

Pure cotton yarn shows a trend from south to north as a whole.

On the other hand, the specifications of the yarns are different, and the heat of buying and selling is not the same.

After the year, the differentiation of purchase and sale made the trend of Zheng cotton relatively dull.

Originally expected to be accompanied by the downstream recovery after the year, the "small peak season" market after the rapid increase in the price of Zhengzhou cotton and the slight increase in its price has only ended for a week. Its origin, after the downstream purchase and sale has stabilized, the seasonal supply easing has become more prominent.

1. The pressure of the raw material is significantly accumulated and the cotton price is pressed.

At the beginning of this year, the cotton harvest was affected by the postponed harvest. It was good for the textile enterprises to use cotton. In September, it was still in the state store cotton inventory pattern, so the cotton inventory was relatively abundant at the beginning of this year.

Since then, in the harvest season, the new flower volume has been listed, but the downstream cotton related orders need to be followed up.

At present, the cotton social inventory is the most important in 8 years. Some traders have to hedge the holding risk and actively carry out hedging.

So it shows that the high price of disk area has strong attraction for warehouse receipts, and also makes the phased easing of social inventory easy to evolve into the pressure on the disk.

The raw material inventory of textile enterprises, according to the national cotton market detection system data, as of the end of March, the average daily use of cotton stocks was about 44.8 days (including the number of imported cotton in the port), an increase of 0.2 days compared with the same period last year, a 0.1% rise in the ring.

In this month's cotton purchase intention survey, there is a 0.5 percentage point decline in purchasing intention, which objectively reflects that one enterprise stock can still support more than a month's production; two, the purchasing and selling sentiment of raw materials is increasing; and three confirms the stage loose pattern appearing in commercial inventory.

2, the overall purchase and sale energy is less than expected.

From the overall operation of the industry, the overall purchase and sale energy and order tracking are not as good as expected.

Before April 5th, the purchase and sale sentiment of sampling sites represented by China Textile City was significantly weaker than that of the previous two years.

Buying and selling energy recovered in the first week of April.

The national cotton market detection system also confirms the trend: the yarn production and sales rate is 97.1%, although it has recovered from the previous three months, but it is still lower than the same level in the past three years.

And 21.5 days of yarn finished goods inventory, higher than the average level of nearly 4.2 years 4.2 days.

The purchase and sale of yarn as a whole is hard to say.

On the other hand, the follow up situation of cotton yarn orders is not as good as expected, and the cotton textile industry PMI has dropped significantly, the lowest level in nearly five years.

The flat purchase and sale of finished goods will also further suppress the enthusiasm of textile enterprises, which makes the raw materials replenishment and wait-and-see sentiment more intense.

Two. Field research and interview on purchase and sale

In order to confirm the purchase and sale and inventory situation reflected by the above data, the author selected a few representative textile enterprises in Hubei District of Hunan to conduct telephone surveys in a small scope.

A enterprises in Hubei confirm the problems displayed on the data.

The company is a regional leading enterprise. It has maintained steady expansion for three years, and its monthly output has steadily increased. Its products are widely sold and the quality is also recognized downstream.

The head of the company said that in the past, yarn did not worry about the sales and how many products it produced, and there would be a clear recovery in the purchase and sale since the beginning of the year. But this year after the beginning of this year, the purchase and sale for a short period of one or two weeks became dull.

At present, there is a slight accumulation of yarn stock and a conservative attitude towards raw materials and post market production.

A large group in Hubei also said that the inventory of finished products showed a slight accumulation. In the past, there was an endless stream of logistics vehicles loading and unloading, and the current logistics and pportation were relatively dull.

A leading manufacturer of cotton yarn quality in Hubei indicated that there was a certain difference between the purchase and sale of different yarns. The company mentioned that the peak season was not prosperous and the purchase and sale were relatively flat last year. After a short period of replenishment, the overall purchase and sale of conventional yarn were mainly wait-and-see, but the sale of high quality and differentiated yarn was still relatively stable, and the impact was less than conventional yarn.

A large enterprise in Hunan indicated that the production was relatively stable, while the latter orders were slightly reduced, and yarn sales were slightly worse than the same period last year.

A yarn trader said that, on the whole, the low spin airflow spun the goods more smoothly than the conventional yarn, but overall cotton cotton yarn was lighter and lighter than the same period last year.

The traders said that in the past, the production of brand yarns in the two lakes areas need to be ordered in advance.

Compared with the Guangzhou area, the sales of yarns in the two lakes area are rather dull.

On the whole, there are three characteristics in the purchase and sale of yarns in the two lakes: the overall heat of buying and selling has dropped significantly compared with that of the same period last year; the second is that most enterprises are restricted by the restrictions on cotton shopping, and the three differentiation strategy and some special yarns are more advantageous.

Three, future trend of operation

In terms of business inventories, social inventories will be reduced to 2 million 750 thousand tons per year after consumption of at least two to three months, and the pattern of phased easing will continue.

As for the raw material inventory of textile enterprises, the habit of buying along with the purchase will continue until the purchase and sale of the downstream market has completely changed.

On the international side, there are support from India MSP, good negotiation in the medium term, and short-term export shipment data. The recent weather problems caused by El Nino also have some help.

But at present, the price of US cotton has been relatively high. The US cotton fund has many net positions, and there is also a momentum of adjustment.

Zheng cotton aspect, at present the plate is good for the future is expected to ferment, with the planting period, the volume increases the warehouse to enter.

In April 10th, it was constrained by the stage of loose supply pattern and the limited purchase and sale of the downstream market. The large number of liquidated positions in the intraday market did not substantially break through the 16100 second pressure level.

It should be noted that at present, the 09 contracts in which the funds are stationed are significantly lower than those of the 05 contracts, and the traditional strong monthly contracts have a strong trend.

According to the above analysis, the possibility of large-scale replenishment is limited, and the pattern of commercial inventory will gradually change in the medium term.

We should continue to pay attention to the situation of inventory and substantive disk, and to break through the signal and downstream operation.