Supply Continued To Tighten. Acrylonitrile Rally Is Hard To Stop.

The price of acrylonitrile in China has been rising for four months, and the overall increase in April has expanded to nearly 1500 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price of the mainstream port in East China reached 14500 yuan / ton.

In April, the settlement price of Sinopec acrylonitrile products was 13800 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with March settlement.

Tight supply is the most direct factor in supporting price increases, and it is difficult to ease tensions in the short term. The price of acrylonitrile is expected to rise or will continue throughout the two quarter.

The device is difficult to alleviate.

Beginning in the first ten days of February, the acrylonitrile plant in the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany announced that the force majeure stopped. The capacity of the unit was 545 thousand tons / year, 280 thousand tons / year and 300 thousand tons / year, which caused the global acrylonitrile supply to be tight.

In April, the British and German aris devices were restarted, but the US Green Lake device is expected to resume in mid June.

It is understood that the United States Ingrid company has many contract users in Asia, its continued parking makes Asian users have to continue to supplement the gap from the spot market, and even if the shipment of the American inis ship can be successfully released in the second half of 6 months, it will take about 40 days to reach the port of Asia. Therefore, the tight supply situation caused by force majeure's Force Majeure will continue to reach 7-8 months or even the whole three quarter.

At present, many buyers in South Korea and India are buying acrylonitrile stock in the Asian market.

In addition to the shortage of external sourcing, there is not enough domestic spot supply.

The 130 thousand tons / year of acrylonitrile in Shandong Hai Jiang chemical industry was put into operation in early March because of a fault shutdown. It has not yet been restarted. It is reported that there is no hope of driving in the first half of the year.

Moreover, Hai Jiang chemical industry also needs to replenish part of acrylonitrile products from the spot market to meet its downstream ABS production.

In addition, the commissioning period of the two phase 260 thousand ton / year acrylonitrile new plant in Jiangsu has been postponed to the 3 quarter, and the specific time is to be determined.

Overall, the supply of acrylonitrile market in China will remain tight after July.

Downstream ABS and acrylamide price rise overall sales start steady

At the same time, the overall performance of ABS and acrylamide in the main downstream products of acrylonitrile is also very strong. Since the beginning of the year, the overall operation of ABS has been maintained at over 90%, and has steadily occupied the largest downstream consumption of acrylonitrile.

In addition, the other third downstream products, the acrylamide industry has made considerable profits, and the factory production enthusiasm is also high, and the average operating rate has reached nearly 70%.

Acrylonitrile industry is at a loss and marginal cost is not easy to pfer.

Theoretical profit map of acrylic fiber production in China

In the continuous rise of acrylonitrile prices, the only negative influence comes from the downstream acrylic fiber industry, which is the most important factor to restrain the increase of acrylonitrile.

Since the beginning of the year, the downstream industry of acrylonitrile has not been improved, domestic sales and exports have been performing poorly, the order volume of spinning mills is always insufficient, and the yarn factories are not selling well, and the enthusiasm of the whole plant is not high.

As acrylonitrile prices continue to rise, the cost pressure of acrylic fiber increases, but in order to stimulate downstream goods, acrylic producers restrict production and stabilize prices, resulting in a gradual loss of production.

Considering that it is difficult for the acrylic fiber industry to pass the cost smoothly, the main manufacturers of acrylonitrile are also cautious in raising prices, and appropriately control the price increase, thus widen the gap with the spot price.

Based on the foregoing discussion, the tight supply situation of acrylonitrile will continue throughout the two quarter at home and abroad, so prices will rise further.

Acrylonitrile manufacturers will take measures to limit production in a loss situation, to a certain extent, will inhibit the price increase of acrylonitrile.