Inertia Decline Polyester Chip Market Falls After 51 May Brake?

Fall or fall, the recent polyester chip quotation continues to decline, at present, Jiangsu and Zhejiang region half light section discussion mainstream in 7625 yuan / ton, glossy slicing negotiations mainstream in 7750 yuan / ton near.

Weekly average price of 7685 yuan / ton, down 2.43%.

The national loom pass rate and operating rate were 75.8%, and the overall loom rate of downstream looms decreased by 1.72%.

Source: lung Chung

Recently, due to the weakness of cost side support, the PET chip market is weak.

At the end of April, the market of PET chips continued to go down. Under the strong attack of the upstream and downstream markets, the polyester market was flat. The raw material procurement of downstream factories was carried out on demand, and the enthusiasm of purchasing was poor.

Near the May 1 holiday, I thought I would buy a wave before the festival, but the downstream bearish intention occupied the main force, but in the end, the polyester chip manufacturers' quotations fell or expanded.

Downstream markets also have wait-and-see sentiment.

Figure 22019 PTA processing fee trend

Insufficient support for polyester Market

In fact, throughout the year April, the PTA spot market changes were closely related to the fluctuation of device market information, and the polyester chip market also followed the potential PTA market. In late 4, when the PTA overhaul was expected to fall, the favorable impact of device maintenance on the supply side began to decline. Although the price of crude oil rose to a new high in the past few months, the PX production of Hengli market led to the market's worries about the supply side of the PX. The profit compression of PX resulted in profit margins to PTA, and PTA processing fees continued to record high. As of April 28th, the processing fee of PTA was 1728.13 yuan / ton, up 507.53 yuan / ton from last month, an increase of 41.58%, an increase of 957.58 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, an increase of 124.27%.

Much higher than the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic ethylene glycol market continued to decline. Compared with last week, the price of the ethylene market dropped by 85 yuan / ton.

Domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises have varying degrees of losses, some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance period, but to alleviate the pressure of inventory is very limited, coupled with the recent production and marketing of polyester flat, basically on the raw material procurement needs.

After the May 1, under the premise of high maintenance and high cash flow of polyester, the cost of PTA is 90% determined by the direct raw material PX, and the cost side's impact is very large for PTA.

Therefore, the further release of the PX in the two quarter of the year will still have a pressing effect on PTA. However, the sanctions imposed by the US on the crude oil produced in Iran are exempt. Geopolitical causes crude oil prices to go up and may have support for PTA in the short term. However, if the terminal order is too weak to spread over and over again, the polyester market will not start to work well.

The PTA demand will be dragged down, so the bad factors of PTA will remain.

Weaving orders are limited, textile market is under heavy pressure.

At the end of April, the overall loom rate of looms was 75.8%, and the ratio of the looms was 1.72%.

Among them, the comprehensive starting rate of air-jet looms is 90%, the ring ratio is 2.6%, the average operating rate of water looms is 89.4%, and the ratio of looms is 1.45%.

The demand for terminal demand is not good, and the order of downstream manufacturers continues to slump, resulting in higher inventory of finished products in the downstream terminal market. Most of the finished products inventory of 100 ~300 looms is in 27-35 days. 20 looms and the following enterprises mostly take the order production as the main products. The stock of regular products is mostly 7-10 days, and the peak season is coming to an end. Therefore, because of the decline of their orders and profits, weaving enterprises have relatively high inventory of their raw materials, and many small and medium loom manufacturers have stoppage expectations, and further purchases are not enough.

Later Outlook:

The favorable atmosphere brought about by the OPEC reduction is still continuing. Meanwhile, the decline in Venezuela crude production and the tension between the US and Iran have all contributed to the good oil price.

But PX is difficult to achieve under the expectation of loose supply, and PTA processing fee is high. The impact of device maintenance information on the market continues to weaken. The cost of polyester chip market has no positive factors. The downstream slicing and terminal orders are generally, buyers basically need to replenishment, and the polyester chip market may have a certain stock pressure during the May Day holiday, but there is a wave of purchasing peak after the holiday, so there is a drop in space or ease.

Pay attention to stocking downstream.