Polyester "51" Promotion To Comfort The Downstream Sentiment, After The Festival Or A Wave Of Procurement Peak!

Before the May 1 holiday, polyester enterprises went to the urgent need of inventory, opened the promotion mode one by one, some enterprises lowered their offer by 100-200 yuan / ton, most enterprises offered stable prices, and the real offer was 100-400 yuan / ton. The expectation of the downstream weaving enterprises is still pessimistic, with a modest margin, the production and sale of polyester has been improved in the earlier stage, but it has not reached the psychological expectation of enterprises. It is understood that the current POY stock in more than 13-15 days, FDY stock in more than 17-20 days, DTY inventory in 25-28 days.

Before the promotion, the downstream is still just needed to replenish the goods. There may be some stock pressure in May 1 holiday. However, according to industry sources, there is a wave of purchasing peak after the holidays, so there is a drop in space or ease.

Insufficient support for polyester Market

In fact, throughout the year April, the PTA spot market changes were closely related to the fluctuation of device market information, and the polyester market was also following the trend of PTA market. In late April, when the PTA overhaul was expected to be set down, the positive impact of device maintenance on the supply side began to decline. Although the price of crude oil rose to a new high in the past few months, the PX production of Hengli market led to the market's worries about the supply side of the PX. The profit compression of PX resulted in profit margins to PTA, and PTA processing fees continued to record high. As of April 28th, the processing fee of PTA was 1728.13 yuan / ton, which rose 507.53 yuan / ton compared with last month, an increase of 41.58%, an increase of 957.58 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, an increase of 124.27%. Much higher than the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic ethylene glycol market continued to decline. Compared with last week, the price of the ethylene market dropped by 85 yuan / ton. Domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises have varying degrees of losses, some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance period, but to alleviate the pressure of inventory is very limited, coupled with the recent production and marketing of polyester flat, basically on the raw material procurement needs.

After the May 1, under the premise of high maintenance and high cash flow of polyester, the cost of PTA is 90% determined by the direct raw material PX, and the cost side's impact is very large for PTA.

Therefore, the further release of PX in the two quarter will also suppress the PTA. However, the US sanctions against the crude oil in Iran are exempt from it. Geopolitical causes crude oil prices to go upwards, which may support PTA in the short term. However, if the order of the terminal is weak, if the cumulative transmission is going on over the years, the polyester market will be hard to start or hard to maintain. The PTA demand will be dragged down, so the bad factors of PTA will remain.

Poor terminal demand, loom mentality cautious

Downstream, the overall stock of polyester has risen, and sales and sales are not good enough.

At the end of April, the overall loom rate of looms was 75.8%, and the ratio of the looms was 1.72%. Among them, the comprehensive starting rate of air-jet looms is 90%, the ring ratio is 2.6%, the average operating rate of water looms is 89.4%, and the ratio of looms is 1.45%.

Although the loom start rate has not declined significantly, and the inventory of loom materials is low, the enthusiasm for purchasing before the festival is not high. According to the Loom factory, the orders in the past have weakened after 5.1 holidays, and the order situation in 2019 has been weakening since the Ching Ming Festival.

The demand for terminal demand is not good, and the order of downstream manufacturers continues to slump, resulting in higher inventory of finished products in the downstream terminal market. Most of the finished products inventory of 100 ~300 looms is in 27-35 days. 20 looms and the following enterprises mostly take the order production as the main products. The stock of regular products is mostly 7-10 days, and the peak season is coming to an end. Therefore, because of the decline of their orders and profits, weaving enterprises have relatively high inventory of their raw materials, and many small and medium loom manufacturers have stoppage expectations, and further purchases are not enough.

List of polyester products inventory, start-up and production and marketing changes

It can be seen that the terminal order situation is not good enough to lead to the phenomenon of product transmission. The polyester factory has not seen low inventory since the Spring Festival holiday, and the enthusiasm of purchasing polyester in the weaving mill will be suppressed again.

The favorable atmosphere brought about by the OPEC reduction is still continuing. Meanwhile, the decline in Venezuela crude production and the tension between the US and Iran have all contributed to the good oil price. But PX is difficult to achieve under the expected supply easing, and PTA processing fee is high. The impact of device maintenance information on the market continues to weaken. The cost side of pet market has no positive factors. The orders for downstream terminals are generally, buyers basically need replenishment, and the polyester Market in May may have some pressure on stock market, but there is a wave of purchasing peak after the holiday, so there is a drop in space or ease. Pay attention to stocking downstream.