Ethylene Glycol Frequently Followed The Trend To Focus On Trade War And Polyester Reduction.

Last week, the market of ethylene glycol in five had a narrow fluctuation, and the East China spot mainstream traded at 4515 yuan / ton.

Although the supply and demand pattern has eased expectations, the polyester start-up load has decreased, more demand based procurement strategies have been adopted, and the quantity of terminals is abundant, the market mentality is pessimistic, and the short-term ethylene glycol market is weak.

Raw materials are confusing.

The overall trend of crude oil in the near future is down. As of last Friday, the price of WTI dropped by 0.24 US dollars / barrel compared with that of last Friday, and the oil volume of the crude oil has been reduced by 0.46 US dollars / barrel.

The main reason for this downward trend is the volatility of risk sentiment. The focus of the market is on the Sino US trade war and the OPEC+ conference in June.

Crude oil inventories and output reductions have encouraged a lot of morale. Saudi Arabia or the news that will fill Iran's oil supply gap still limits oil prices.

Supply and demand sides are both weak.

First of all, demand side, polyester enterprise load reduction news has been gradually digested.

It is known that the inspection and repair of 200 thousand tons of short fiber at the end of April has not been restarted; Shihua finished production at 230 tons per day in the end of April, and the output of Huahong 500 tons / day short fiber has also started since the Tiansheng 400 thousand tons of filament repair. In addition, there are plans to cut down production, such as Fujian, Shaoxing, Jiangyin, Zhangjiagang, Xiaoshan, Tongxiang and Wujiang factories.

The current market is more concerned about the impact of downstream demand on upstream supply and demand. If the supply is relatively unchanged in the late period, the demand will be greatly weakened.

Take a look at the supply side. Last Thursday, the MEG port in East China's main port area has a stock of about 1 million 361 thousand tons, a decrease of 7 thousand tons compared with the previous period.

Among them, 87 thousand tons in Ningbo increased by 17 thousand tons compared with the previous period. From May 5th to May 8th, the average daily delivery of the main reservoirs in Zhenhai port was about 4000 tons. The 134 thousand tons in Shanghai and Changshu decreased by 24 thousand tons compared with the previous period; 916 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, 15 thousand tons higher than the previous period, a daily average of about 4500-5000 of a mainstream warehouse, 117 thousand tons in Taicang, 4 thousand tons lower than that in the previous period, two% of the average daily deliveries of the mainstream library, and the fall of Jiangyin and Changzhou, respectively, compared with the previous period.

So from the above data, although the supply has decreased, it is still quite adequate.

What will follow trend?

Last week, polyester load fell significantly, as of last week, five to 91.5%, the terminal weak feedback process, the market's overall mood is cautious.

This week, the arrival volume of the main port is near 181 thousand tons, the total volume has picked up slightly, and the port stock is expected to increase slightly, but the overall situation still depends on the speed of the ship.

At the same time, the domestic supply rebounded relatively slowly. Under the influence of low prices, the enthusiasm of coal factories started to be limited, and some installations were postponed.

In the first half of May, the performance of the first half of the year was acceptable.

Follow up concerns the situation of Sino US traders and the further reduction action of polyester factories.

(source: Huaxi Village commodity exchange center, Hui merchants futures)