ICE Cotton Futures Price Rebound Is Not Easy To Wait For Is The Only Choice.

After ICE rebounded on Tuesday, it continued to work hard to reverse the passive situation. The real reversal needed to be completed in a day and then rapidly increased.

Usually, such a trend means that the drop is basically over.

However, the price trend must be convinced by the market. Then dealers can act positively. In conclusion, there must be a lot of follow-up buying.

Judging from the situation on Wednesday, ICE futures obviously do not yet have the ability to do so, and the mood and fundamentals of the market continue to bring great pressure to the market.

Now, the new cotton planting area in the US is planting in 2019. There will be continuous rainfall in the western part of Texas in the coming week. The rainfall in the next two weeks will be higher than that of the whole year. Therefore, traders generally expect us cotton production to start well this year, and it is more and more believed that the actual area at the end of June will exceed the intended area in March.

The other is that the market believes China will cancel the previous US cotton contract.

Up to now, there are still 830 thousand packages of cotton contract in China without shipment. These contracts are likely to be cancelled.

This Thursday's US cotton export weekly must boost the market, otherwise the pessimism of Sino US trade war will continue to firmly control the market.

In May 15th, ICE futures finally fell, and the trend of technology graphics was bearish and Sino US trade negotiations may continue to make the market go forward. In July, the contract went up and down, the future trend was very bad, and there was not much time left. In July June 14th, the contract options will expire, and June 24th July contracts will be delivered.

Although the current US contract signing process is ideal this year, the absence of China is a big problem.

What the market can do now is to wait for the good news of Sino US trade negotiations.

If the two heads of state can reach an agreement after the G20 summit, there will be enough time for the next contract.

Traders are more worried that the longer the trade problem is resolved, the more market share the United States will be robbed by Brazil. Now this is happening, and the problem is not so simple.

Brazil's Real exchange rate is very low, and its competitiveness has almost reached parity with the US cotton market. Now it will also improve its infrastructure. This is very dangerous for us cotton, at least for now.

It is worth noting that a large Memphis analysis company estimated the US cotton area in 2019 to be increased from 13 million 780 thousand acres to 14 million 100 thousand acres.

Of course, the weather problems in these Delta areas may affect the final figures.