The PTA Industry Chain Is Experiencing The Profit Redistribution Process.

Recently, market sentiment has been affected by the macro environment, and the overall performance of commodity prices has been weakening.

For PTA itself, the fundamentals are healthy, but the downstream profits are not good and the pactions are light.

In terms of crude oil, oil has been hovering in the $70-75 / barrel range recently.

The United States tightened its policy towards Iran. By tracking the changes in output and export volume in Iran, it was found that the previous sanctions had an impact of about 1 million barrels per day on the output of Iran, which had an impact on export volume of about 600 thousand barrels per day.

The United States has stepped up its military deployment in the Persian Gulf, and the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has also become tense.

In addition, Venezuela's political situation was also tense, which once triggered the market's conjecture about crude oil supply.

The author believes that the tight supply and demand of crude oil has been achieved by the reduction of OPEC production, and the supply of the Middle East countries is the most unstable factor. Once the pport routes of the Persian Gulf are blocked, the global supply will be threatened.

The OPEC conference is coming, and the current oil price has not broken through the top 80-85 US dollars / barrel. It is still a long way from Saudi Arabia's high oil price target set up by Saudi Aramis. Even if Saudi Arabia led OPEC countries take the initiative to increase production to make up for the supply gap brought by sanctions against Iran, but considering the interests of Saudi Arabia and OPEC's goal of restoring oil prices to a "reasonable level", I am cautiously optimistic about the price of oil in the next 2 months.

In terms of PX, the current price of CFR PX in China is 870 US dollars / ton, which has dropped 130 US dollars / ton in just 1 months.

With the advent of the era of big refining and petrochemical, PTA manufacturers with strong voice have stepped up the construction of PX devices.

All along, from PX to PTA to polyester industry profits are mostly concentrated in the PX side, the first heavy pattern in 2019 was affected by PX production capacity to change.

From the perspective of price difference, the current PX- naphtha oil price difference is at a low level of 300 US dollars / ton, and it is hard to fall deeply.

At the same time, in the early stage of PX plant operation, the financial cost is higher, and the enterprises obviously do not want the PX price to fall too fast.

Therefore, the upper reaches continue to give way to limited space, and PX is unlikely to fall further.

On the PTA side, due to the implementation of the supply side reform, the PTA production capacity is optimized and relatively concentrated.

As of May 16th, Yisheng petrochemical PTA internal listing price stabilized to 6660 yuan / ton, the external selling price stabilized to 880 U.S. dollars / ton.

Hengli Petrochemical today's PTA internal selling price stabilized to 6700 yuan / ton, the external selling price stabilized to 840 U.S. dollars / ton.

Within 1 days, spot prices dropped by about 500 yuan / ton, and processing fees dropped from 1500 yuan / ton to 1500 yuan / ton before.

At present, the futures department is in deep discount.

Polyester, as the price of PTA continued to rise in the previous period, resulting in continuous compression of downstream profits, to the first two days, PTA spot prices fell slightly improved.

Therefore, polyester enterprises tend to reduce the negative response measures, many devices to increase maintenance expectations, last week's overall load dropped 2 percentage points.

On inventory, as of May 10th, POY, FDY, DTY and staple stocks were 13.3 days, 18.3 days, 26.9 days and 12.3 days respectively, indicating that the manufacturers were not in good order, and the orders were not optimistic.

Since April, new orders have been few, and terminal grey fabric inventory has accumulated to a high level.

According to the relevant research, the operation rate of Shaoxing big circle machine has dropped from 75% to the current 30%. Haining and Changshu warp knitting and Changxin and Wujiang's water injection rate also dropped by 10-20%.

In addition, the dyeing factory also has a poor business and a shorter schedule.

As a large exporter of textile products, many enterprises worry that this trade friction will have a negative impact on exports.

Based on the rational analysis, the author thinks that every year, China's exports to the United States are about 110 thousand tons of staple fiber and long fiber, and the amount of textile and clothing exported to the United States is partly converted to polyester demand, which amounts to 300 thousand tons, and the total amount does not exceed 500 thousand tons. The current 200 billion dollar products have limited practical impact. Even if the 300 billion yuan is really on the agenda, the export demand of 2 million tons within the domestic polyester production volume of 45 million tons per year should not be overly pessimistic.

Overall, the terminal demand is not good. Polyester enterprises need more time to recover profits and pmit to the PTA disk, showing the lack of action on price.

However, when the 1909 contract is below 5500 yuan / ton, it is not recommended to continue short.

Later, we should pay close attention to changes in macro environment and downstream production and marketing.