Pure Polyester Yarn Enterprises Will Enter The Real Winter.

Since the beginning of this year, the pure polyester yarn factory has been in the doldrums after a short period of prosperity. It should be the traditional peak season in 4-5 this year. But in fact, not only did not see the shadow of the peak season, but it became the most difficult two months. The continued downturn of downstream terminals, serious demand, the continuous decline of polyester and short materials and the worsening of trade war have enveloped the current market. Since the beginning of March, the decline of orders has already appeared. Influenced by the tax reform in March, the order of cotton mill is obviously predominant, causing the order situation to begin to decline rapidly in April, until the current cotton mill is still very difficult to carry goods.

From the regional point of view, the first part of the northern part of the country was started. For example, Hebei began to show weak orders. Then, in May, the southern region also had large orders. The overall stock began to rise. At present, the market situation was very negative. This is not a situation in a single region, but a decline in the demand for pure polyester yarn across the country, and the impact of trade war on exports is limited. This also aggravates the overall pressure of the market.

From the inventory point of view, the current market average stock has reached 16 days, which has been the highest level in 17 years, and there is little difference. Downstream cotton mill has obviously felt the pressure of goods left, and maintained a steady decline for the next few months. The T32S mainstream transaction price dropped to 12800 nearby, and this price also broke the low point last year. From the perspective of the downstream, the rapid reduction of prices is also a frustration, but the actual demand stimulus has not been achieved, and the market's fear of falling is serious.

Many people will think of this market last year, but there is still a fundamental difference between them. Last year, the sharp rise and fall of polyester raw materials was the main reason, and this year is the continued weakening of terminal demand. From the demand, demand in the second half of last year is obviously better than that in the first half of this year. This is also the reason why the price of late polyester yarn has obviously rebounded. But this year, we are facing not only the obvious deterioration of demand, but also the continuous decline of polyester raw materials. From the chart below, short staple inventory has risen rapidly. Although polyester and short factories have begun to cut production rapidly, there is still no sign of stopping. By adding a large number of PX to the second half of the year, the collapse of PTA costs has become a foregone conclusion, which is fatal to staple fibers. No matter from cost or demand, it can not prevent short fiber from coming down continuously with polyester raw materials, and it is hard to see a sustained trend rebound in the short term.

The continuous decline of the market has seriously affected the market sentiment. The cotton mill generally reflects that this year's orders are very poor, and the traditional off-season will start in June, and domestic sales will shrink. The continuous decline of demand will lead to the continuous increase of inventory and the fierce competition between factories. Judging from the raw materials, this year will be in a state of empty space. The localization of PX is expected to cause PTA cost to collapse, and the latter is also a big probability. From the perspective of the overall market, the market is now in a depressed atmosphere, and the market lacks bright spot stimulation. No matter what the upstream and downstream expectations are beginning to turn around, the nausea cycle in the latter market will continue.