The Downward Pressure On The Economy Can Be Controlled By Anti Cyclical Regulation.

In May, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month.

Experts believe that the decline of PMI means that the economy is still facing some downward pressure, and the policy should be strengthened or strengthened in order to ensure that the economic operation is in a reasonable range.

Production keeps expanding

In the five sub indices of manufacturing PMI in May, production index and supplier delivery time index were higher than the critical point, and the new order index, raw material inventory index and employment index were below the critical point.

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of statistics service industry survey, introduced the main characteristics of May. First, production remained expanding and demand slowed down; two, high tech manufacturing industry had relatively high level of prosperity; three, enterprise development was expected to be stable and good; four, both imports and exports dropped.

Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities, said that PMI had a super seasonal decline in May. On the one hand, it was related to the decline of shipping kinetic energy brought by tax reduction and tax reduction in April. On the other hand, it was also affected by the negative external environment.

Looking back, the decline in PMI business expectations and the decline in profits of industrial enterprises mean that there is a certain pressure on the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry, and investment in fixed assets is therefore dragged down.

According to the scale of enterprises, the degree of prosperity of enterprises of different sizes shows differentiation.

Data show that the PMI of large enterprises is 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, still higher than the critical point.

The PMI of small and medium enterprises was 48.8% and 47.8%, respectively, down 0.3 and 2 percentage points from last month, below the critical point.

Zhang Jun said that with the gradual improvement of the pmission mechanism of monetary policy, the decline in profit growth of private enterprises will be controlled, and the gap between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises will continue to shrink.

Increase reverse cycle regulation

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said that we need to intensify the implementation of counter cyclical adjustment policies, effectively expand domestic demand, ensure that the economy is running in a reasonable range, and focus on maintaining employment stability.

Zhang Jun believes that, on the one hand, structural adjustment of monetary policy will become the focus of future policy direction, providing a stable liquidity environment for counter cyclical adjustment, and maintaining a tight and moderate degree in total volume.

On the other hand, the pace of fiscal expenditure is accelerating. In addition to increasing local government debt, this year, the central government will also revitalize the stock of funds to increase production and investment vitality, and the improvement of corporate profitability and confidence is expected to continue.

In May, the manufacturing industry index was 47%, the lowest since March 2009.

Wang Han, chief economist of Xingye securities, said that from the recent executive meeting of the State Council, solving social policies such as employment may be a relatively preferred option in the toolbox.

Under the uncertainty of weak external demand, the focus of hedging policy at the demand side may be manufacturing and household consumption. The supply side may focus on financial reform to enhance the quality and efficiency of its service real economy.