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Collapse Of Mentality And Expansion Of Acrylonitrile

2019/6/17 17:00:00 253

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Entering the June, the market of acrylonitrile declined significantly. As of June 14th, the spot price in the domestic spot market was as low as 13000 yuan / ton, down 1500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, or 10.34%. Meanwhile, the price of the external market slipped synchronously, and the closing price of the CFR Far East fell 7.16% to 1880 US dollars / ton since the beginning of the month. The weakening of terminal demand is a fundamental factor in price declines.

Domestic price chart of acrylonitrile market in 2019

In June, the supply of acrylonitrile in China decreased, and Fushun petrochemical, Jilin petrochemical and Shanghai SECCO overhaul. The estimated production of acrylonitrile in June decreased by about 15 thousand tons from last month. Even in the case of reduced supply, acrylonitrile prices still show a decline, showing that demand side fatigue is obvious.

Acrylic fiber industry further limited production, Jilin chemical fiber and Hangzhou Bay acrylic fiber has not yet resumed normal production, while Shanghai Petrochemical also entered the June after limiting production measures. At present, the overall load of the acrylic fiber industry is around 54%, which is 8% lower than that in May. It is estimated that the output of acrylic fiber will be reduced by about 10 thousand tons in June, and the consumption of acrylonitrile will be reduced by about 9300 tons.

ABS industry started to decline slightly, estimated that output in June dropped by about 8000 tons from last month. In addition to Lanzhou petrochemical and Jilin petrochemical, along with the upstream acrylonitrile plant synchronous parking, other manufacturers started no fluctuations. However, the demand for ABS terminals has weakened, and the peak season for the downstream power plants has ended, and the price of ABS has also kept a downward trend. In addition, the acrylamide industry has gradually entered the demand off-season, with the hot weather, the industry started to decline. In addition to the above three downstream, acrylonitrile downstream other fields are also mediocre, butadiene nitrile, polyether and other industries are tired.

Demand side performance is weak, coupled with the expected growth in the supply side. On the one hand, the American device is expected to resume after mid July. On the other hand, the two phase 260 thousand tonnes of new products will start after August. The fundamentals of supply and demand are gradually changing to excess, and the mentality of acrylonitrile market is gradually collapsing. Beginning in the early June, traders were in a bad mood. Meanwhile, Fushun Petrochemical stocks continued to be on the high side. In addition, a large acrylic plant continued to sell raw acrylonitrile at a low price, and heard that the current price has been as low as 12000 yuan / ton, further reducing the focus of market spanactions.

In June, it was more than half of the time, and only a week away from the factory settlement. After the active acrylonitrile spot market was active in the first half of the month, it began to wait and see the trend of settlement price. However, this month, as the industry takes a pessimistic view of the long-term market, the price of acrylonitrile will keep pace, or the price of the mainstream market will fall to around 12000 yuan / ton at the end of the month.