Production And Marketing Explosion PTA Rise, Raw Material Market Again Billows!

Last Sunday, polyester production and marketing also rushed to 100%. On Monday, the average production and sales came to 160%. The price of polyester filament also increased slightly by 50-100 yuan / ton.

On the PTA side, PTA futures rose on the whole this Monday, and the 1909 main contract of PTA futures closed at 5318 points, up 94 points from the previous trading day, or 1.8%.

Over the past two months, polyester production and marketing have also seen a number of "days of travel" phenomenon, all in a short time, production and sales rose rapidly, followed by polyester filament, PTA and other raw materials. However, most of these short quotes are not good for a long time. Because there is no support from terminal weaving enterprises, polyester production and marketing will soon fall down, and the price of polyester filament has returned to bland after a short rise.

When raw materials rise in price, polyester production and marketing will break out briefly?

Under the influence of high inventory, the pressure of weaving enterprises is very heavy, because at present, all raw materials need to be paid in cash, and the price of raw materials is in a downward trend. Therefore, most of the weaving enterprises are basically using raw materials to buy with them, and they will not be hoarding goods.

But once there is a wave of market and raw materials on the market have a trend of rising prices, weaving enterprises will usually buy more than usual. Although I don't know how long the raw material will go up, if it goes up, it will be cheaper to buy it sooner than later. Now it is so difficult. It must be how much we can save. In addition, the price of polyester is at a low level, and the possibility of falling back up is not great. As a result, a short break of production and marketing followed by a continuous silence can be explained.

In June, why is weaving stock so high?

The author has been thinking about a problem. For textile market, 6, 7 and August belong to the traditional off-season. This year the off-season came earlier, 20 days earlier than usual. Therefore, at this time, weaving enterprises have accumulated more than 20 days' inventory than the same period last year.

So the question is, is the stock right now higher than in the past 7 and August? Why did the weaving enterprises not have so much pressure?

Here is the question of expectation.

The increase in the productivity of the peripheral looms is a phenomenon we all know. Therefore, the regular products will be in a situation of oversupply for a long time to come.

Now the weaving industry in China is almost equal to a completely competitive market, and the influence of the market rule becomes very obvious. Once the supply exceeds demand, the price will not go up.

If we compare the present weaving Market to a stock, the impression on this stock is very bad. Even if it is not the limit, it will not be far away, but is it really so miserable? In fact, at the present time, most of the weaving enterprises are able to sustain them. But the off-season has just begun. How to spend the next two months is the top priority.

Why haven't traders hoarding goods this year?

In the past year, when the off-season, traders will hoard conventional products in the market, because they know that once the market moves from the off-season to the peak season, grey cloth prices will generally rise slightly.

In previous years, when the off-season, traders are often placed under the order of the bulk of weaving orders.

But this year the situation is different. Under the double pressure of raw materials and market, the price of grey cloth can be said to be one price per day. A 300t spring Asia spinning is still 2.9 yuan / meter, and the price has dropped to 1.9 yuan / meter.

As long as the market supply exceeds demand, the inventory of woven fabrics has been rising, and the market forecast for gray cloth prices is always downward.

That being the case, traders who sent orders to the weaving enterprises in the off-season certainly chose to wait and see. There was no intention of hoarding goods. This explains why a lot of weaving enterprises complain that there is not an order now.

Of course, according to the theory of economics, the price of products is not only related to supply and demand, but also to value. Another important factor affecting the price of grey cloth is cost, in other words, raw material price.

For weaving enterprises, the price increase of raw materials is not all bad.

When the raw material has been rising, many times the cloth price can not rise, it seems to be a loss, but the cloth owners still have to make money, because the stock used before is cheap raw materials. Although it seems that cloth boss is under great pressure, it means that their inventory is increasing day by day.

But when the price of raw materials falls, the situation is reversed. Especially when there are so many stocks now, every drop of raw material means that all the cloth in the inventory is going down. If 2 million meters of cloth is stored, the price of grey cloth will fall from 2.5/ yuan to 3 yuan per meter, because the market is not good, and the raw material will fall. The value of cloth will drop from 6 million to 5 million, which is to some extent a loss of 1 million.

Can cloth prices really go up?

First of all, whether the price of raw materials can go up is a question worth pondering.

Before, PX began to rise unusually, led a wave of polyester market, but the terminal weaving on the market performance of some "indigestion", cloth boss's financial pressure is very big, it is difficult to withstand the rise of raw materials market. And now only in June, according to the previous years of experience, such a off-season at least to continue to August, and now the price of raw materials is not a good time.

Besides, if the raw materials go up, will cloth prices go up?

Nowadays, there are a lot of goods in the market. Many enterprises sell their cloth in order to clear up inventory or even lose money. Even if the price of raw materials can go up in the future, but the situation of supply exceeding demand is not solved, many weaving enterprises will sell according to the current price in order to clear their stock. After all, the market volume is over there, and so they still have to earn money, so that at the end of the day, cloth prices will still not go up.

In the long run, the capacity of new looms outside the periphery will not be completely digested, and the situation of oversupply will not be reversed. The market environment for depression will not be reversed.

In the short term, to reduce pressure on weaving enterprises, first of all, we must regain confidence in the market and keep cloth prices stable, even if it does not rise in a short period of time. We must have a rising expectation so that downstream traders and fabric enterprises can share some of the stock pressure of the gray cloth, and the market will have the opportunity to regain prosperity.