Half A Month Of External Cotton Trading Stagnation, 6-8 Months Is Also Difficult To Have Obvious Improvement.

According to the survey, on June 16-18, Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other ports bonded cotton inquiry and shipment continued cold and cheerless, traders inventory and capital pressure showed a continuous rise. Although the price of the CF1909 contract has risen from 12720 to 13650 in early June, the spot price difference of Xinjiang cotton has risen by 500-600 yuan / ton in 2018/19. Although the raw material inventory of domestic cotton textile enterprises is low or even used to buy, they are always at risk of breaking down. However, the outflow of cotton and Xinjiang cotton and Zhengzhou warehouse receipts is in a state of half stagnation and price without market.

A large cotton trader in Qingdao has said that even if the import quota of 800 thousand tons of cotton tariff is put to cotton mills in the middle and late 6 months, it will be difficult to make obvious progress in the 6-8 months. On the one hand, not only domestic cotton supply is adequate in 2018/19, but also the price "upside down" is very prominent. At present, the SM 1-5/32 Brazil port cotton net weight quoted price is concentrated at 15000-15200 yuan / ton (cleared customs), while the "double 29" Northern Xinjiang cotton picking price is only 14200-14300 yuan / ton. The difference between the weight and net weight is taken into account. The two are still "upside down" 500-800 yuan / ton; on the other hand, from the feedback from all sides, the output of Australia cotton in 2019 has fallen by more than 50%, and the quality and grade have decreased obviously, and the matching degree of textile products with the textile enterprises is not enough. Besides, the CNF price of Australia cotton is higher than that of Brazil cotton, Ukrainian cotton and other 10 cents / pound, and the price of goods is not cheap.

On the 18 day, the price of bonded cotton in the port's renminbi was relatively large (requiring buyers to bring import quotas), while the quotations outside the customs quotas were not large, mainly due to the relative disadvantage of bonded cotton and Xinjiang cotton in 2018/19, and the 1% quota and the depreciation of RMB. The net weights of S-6 M 1-5/32, M 1-5/32 Brazil cotton and SM 1-5/32 West Africa cotton are 13800-13900 yuan / ton, 14000-14100 yuan / ton and 13700-13800 yuan / ton respectively (the buyer has their own quotas), while S-6 SM 1-5/32 net weight quoted 14100-14200 yuan / ton (the buyer has his own quota). Some traders have shown that although the arrival, delivery and storage volume of foreign cotton has declined since June, the panic and selling sentiment have been aggravated due to the serious shortage of outgoing banks.