2019 PX Semi Annual Report: PX Price Trend, Profit Analysis And Market Outlook

In the first half of the year, the price trend of PX can be divided into two stages. On January 1st, -3, 6, the price of PX slowly oscillating upward. After March 6th, the price of PX dropped, and the level of industry profits dropped from high, and the pessimistic atmosphere continued to heat up. In the second half of the year, the industry's new production capacity is still relatively large, and the PX profit space has a further downward trend. While domestic capacity is increasing substantially, PX dependence on imports will also continue to decrease.

1. Market Review

Figure PX price trend in the first half of 12019

January 1, 2019 -3 6, PX price is affected by upstream cost side, the main production country crude oil production reduction, naphtha price rises with crude oil, PX price goes all the way, in March 6th, PX price rose to a high point of 1132 US dollars / ton CFR China, PX- naphtha oil price difference maintained at 483.67-615.87 dollar / ton high volatility, enterprise profits are huge, the highest period profit reaches 2000 yuan / ton.

It didn't last long. In March 7th, Hengli petrochemical plant continued to hit the market. PX prices ran counter to the cost side. Prices fell all the way down, and the mentality of the operators collapsed and buyers continued to be absent. In May 20th, the price of PX and stone naphtha fell to 279.875 US dollars / ton. Korea's Lotte chemical, Indonesia TPPI company, Qingdao Li Dong, India Xincheng and other enterprises have successively reduced production or planned to reduce production by PX. From this we can see that when the price difference between PX and naphtha is less than 280 US dollars / ton, the production intention of enterprises will be greatly reduced. With the release of the production cut, the price of PX began to stabilize and recover. However, the price of PX and naphtha maintained near $320 / ton, and the price of PX began to be affected by the cost side. As of June 28th, the price of PX was 838 US dollars / ton CFR China, compared with the beginning of the year, it dropped by 110.42 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 11.64%.

2. profit analysis


At present, the profit of calculating PX in the industry is PX- -300 of naphtha. From the chart, we can see that on January 1st 6, PX profit is generally higher, at the highest level of 315.87 USD / tonne. However, the constant force device continued to suppress the market impact, and PX profits dropped rapidly. The PX- naphtha oil price difference dropped to 279.875 US dollars / ton in May 20th. Following the announcement of the company's production cuts or the reduction of production operations, the profits of PX enterprises slowly increased. Under the influence of temporary short stop and prolonged startup in India, the supply of PX was tight and prices rose rapidly. In June 10th, the difference between PX and Shi Nao oil price rose to 412.79 yuan / ton. Following the increase of PX supply and the multiple factors such as cost and demand, PX and Shinao oil price narrowed to 320-340 US dollars / ton.

3. supply situation

Figure PX yield analysis in the first half of 32019

Affected by the overall high profits of the first quarter, the PX enterprises in 2019 had a higher production enthusiasm. The two PX installations superimposed on Fuhai were resumed in the end of 2018 and early March 2019, and the supply of PX in 2019 increased as compared with 2018. After mid June, Hengli two PX plants were running at full capacity. In May, the total output was 10 million tons, and the initial output was limited, which also made the PX output increase in the first half of the year. According to long Zhong information statistics, PX production in the first half was 6 million 670 thousand tons, an increase of 21% over the same period last year.

In the case of continuous increase in domestic production, the dependence of PX imports gradually decreased. According to long Zhong information statistics, the dependence degree of domestic PX imports was near 58% in 2018, and in May 2019, the dependence degree of PX imports fell to 53%.

4. market outlook

The constant force device has overpriced the PX price. At present, the enterprises are actively protecting the price. But on the whole, the PX inspection and repair device is limited in the second half of the year, and the PX device with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons will be resumed in the second half of August. At the same time, the PX products of Sinochem Hong run new plant will be on sale in August. In September, the 1 million ton / year PX plant of Hainan refining and chemical plant will be put into operation, and the 1 million 500 thousand tons / year PX installation of Hengyi Brunei will be put into operation. In October, the 4 million ton / PX PX plant of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Company will be put into operation. In the second half of the year, the new capacity of PX is still huge, and the long line of the superimposed crude oil market is bearish. It is estimated that PX price still has a downward trend. Meanwhile, the difference between PX and naphtha oil price has continued to decline. It is estimated that the difference between PX and naphtha in the second half of this year will be reduced to below US $320 / ton.