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Review Of Acrylonitrile Market In The First Half Of 2019 And Trend Forecast In The Second Half Of The Year

2019/7/16 12:57:00 78

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I. price: first half of the year, acrylonitrile price rises and then falls.

Fig. 1 domestic price trend of acrylonitrile in previous years

Source: lung Chung

In the first half of 2019, the price of domestic acrylonitrile market rose first and then fell. Among them, the parking of ABS and the marine power plant, and the high starting point of the acrylonitrile plant provided the main driving force for the price rise of acrylonitrile. The highest price point appeared in the middle of May in the first half of the year, and the price in the East China market reached 16000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year, the price rose to 4500 yuan / ton, and the growth rate was 39.13%. In late May, the price entered the downlink channel, and fell to the beginning level at the end of June, and the downward trend continued. In the first half of the year, the average price of acrylonitrile market was 13181 yuan / ton, down 14.25% from the same period last year.

Specifically, in 1-2, the domestic acrylonitrile market was mainly small, and the main downstream businesses such as acrylic fiber and ABS were all well constructed. Acrylonitrile enterprises also had no pressure on production and marketing. The market supply and demand performance was relatively balanced, and supported by the Spring Festival, the price rose slightly.

Starting from March, the supply shortage was highlighted. On the one hand, the device of 1 million 125 thousand tonnes of capacity of the whole world was stopped in February due to force majeure, and it was difficult to recover in the short term. On the other hand, the Shandong Hai Jiang 130 thousand T plant suddenly stopped due to a breakdown in early March, and has not yet recovered. The unexpected shutdown of the plant resulted in a global shortage of supply, and foreign trade orders increased demand for domestic exports. At the same time, downstream ABS and acrylamide are highly motivated by high profit support. Acrylonitrile manufacturers continue to raise quotes under low inventories and high external prices.

However, as the price of acrylonitrile continues to rise, the downstream gradually breeds resistance, and the terminal demand performance is weak. The downstream demand of ABS is weakened. Besides, the acrylic fiber industry also has limited production due to losses, so the price of acrylonitrile has reached a peak in mid May. By the end of June, the price of mainstream outlet in East China port will reach 12000 yuan / ton.

Table 1 Comparison of monthly average price of acrylonitrile in East China

Unit: yuan / ton

	January	February	March	April	May	June
Average price in 2018	Fourteen thousand two hundred and thirteen	Fifteen thousand three hundred and fifty-four	Fourteen thousand four hundred and fifty-eight	Fifteen thousand two hundred and fifty	Sixteen thousand and fifty-five	Sixteen thousand five hundred and eighty-seven
Average price in 2019	Eleven thousand seven hundred and forty-five point four five	Twelve thousand one hundred and forty-seven point one	Twelve thousand eight hundred and thirty-three point three	Fourteen thousand and twenty-two point seven	Fifteen thousand three hundred and twenty-three point eight	Thirteen thousand two hundred and thirty-one point six
Year-on-year	-17.36%	-20.89%	-11.24%	-8.05%	-4.55%	-20.23%

Source: lung Chung

Two, profit article: acrylonitrile production is quite profitable in the first half of the year.

Fig. 2 profit change of acrylonitrile production in China

Source: lung Chung

It is estimated that the average cost of domestic acrylonitrile production in the first half of 2019 was around 1021410616 yuan / ton, down 402 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2018, or 3.79%. At the same time, the profit margin of domestic acrylonitrile production in the first half of 2019 was 2959 yuan / ton, representing a decrease of 1758 yuan / tonne compared with the same period in 2018, a drop of 37.27%, a sharp narrowing of profit margins and a considerable profit performance.

In the first half of 2019, acrylonitrile and propylene prices showed the opposite trend, so acrylonitrile profit also increased first and then narrowed. Although propylene is the main raw material for acrylonitrile, acrylonitrile does not have a high proportion in its consumption structure, and most acrylonitrile plants are propylene, so the correlation between the two trends is not obvious. In recent years, the price trend of acrylonitrile is directly dominated by the supply and demand side, which also makes acrylonitrile high profit. However, when acrylonitrile prices hit the cost line, the cost side support also began to highlight.

Three, supply: foreign supply is tight, exports are increasing slightly.

Figure 32018-2019 production comparison in 1-6 months

Source: lung Chung

In 2019 1-6, the total production of acrylonitrile plants in China was 933 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 78 thousand tons over the same period last year, an increase of 9.12% over the same period last year. After centralized overhaul in 2018, the maintenance plan for acrylonitrile factories in China decreased in 2019, while the overhaul of overseas installations increased. The following table shows:

Table 22019 parking statistics for acrylonitrile plant at home and abroad in 1-6

Enterprise name	capacity	Device dynamics
Formosa Plastics chemistry	Twenty-eight	Parking inspection from February 12th to March 9th
The United States of America	Fifty-four point five	Force majeure stops in February 8th and is expected to resume in mid July.
British English	Twenty-eight	Force majeure stop in mid February 15th and resume in mid April.
In Germany	Thirty	Force majeure stopped in February 27th and resumed in early April.
Sinopec Taiwan	Twenty-four	A week's maintenance in early May
Asahi Asahi	Twenty	Parking inspection from May 24th to June 27th
Thailand PTT	Twenty	Maintenance for 6 weeks from May 8th
3 Sheng Sheng De	Thirteen	Car maintenance for 6 weeks from May 3rd.
AnQore	Twenty-eight point five	Parking inspection from mid April to May 22nd
Shandong Hai Jiang	Thirteen	Restart due to failure in March 3rd
secco	Thirteen	June 3rd overhaul a line for a week.
Fushun petrochemical	Nine point two	June 11 maintenance 15 days
Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd.	Ten point six	Maintenance for 4-5 days in early June
Jilin Petrochemical three or four	Twenty-four	Parking inspection from June 17th to July 10th

Source: lung Chung

Figure 42018-2019 comparison of imports in 1-6 months

According to customs data statistics, the total import volume of acrylonitrile in China in 2019 1-5 was 151 thousand tons, an increase of 3 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. In January, the import volume was close to 50 thousand tons. At the beginning of the year, due to the low price of the external market, plus the domestic supply gap, the import spot transaction increased significantly. But since then, with foreign devices stopping and internal and external disks continuing to hang upside down, imports have returned to downstream contracts.

In addition, due to the continuous shutdown of the device, the global supply was tight in the first half of the year, and domestic export orders increased correspondingly. In 2019 1-5, the cumulative export volume of acrylonitrile in China was 6469.57 tons, compared with zero in the same period last year.

Four, demand: ABS starts stable acrylic fiber production and loss reduction

Figure 52019, 1-6 month, acrylonitrile main downstream products operating rate changes

Source: lung Chung

In the first half of 2019, the best performance of downstream products of acrylonitrile was still ABS. As the downstream consumption of acrylonitrile accounted for more than 40% of the products, ABS enterprises started to maintain at 90% in the first half of the year, and the demand for acrylonitrile was the largest and the most stable. As the downstream consumption accounts for the second place of acrylic products, it is an important fuse to trigger the decline of acrylonitrile prices.

Fig. 6 profit change of acrylic fiber production in China

Source: lung Chung

During the 1-4 months, the domestic acrylic fiber enterprises started to keep near 60-70%. However, as the price of acrylonitrile continues to rise, the loss of acrylic fiber production is gradually expanding, and the downstream yarn industry is in a doldrums. Acrylic manufacturers can only take measures to limit production and stop losses. Starting in May, acrylic fiber started to decline gradually, and dropped to about 45% in June. Acrylic fiber enterprises substantially reduced production, resulting in acrylonitrile prices fell to the top.

In addition, 5-6 months with the downstream household appliances stocking season has ended, while the automotive industry demand is not satisfactory, ABS industry also showed weakness. The acrylamide industry also entered the off-season production in June, and some devices stopped or reduced the burden. The overall performance of downstream demand is weak, leading to a rapid decline in acrylonitrile prices.

Five, forecast: new capacity to release acrylonitrile industry will be surplus

In the second half of the year, the domestic oversupply of acrylonitrile market will become more prominent. 8-9 months later, the 130 thousand tons of Shandong Hai Jiang's 130 thousand ton plant will have a restart plan after half a year's parking. At the same time, the 260 thousand phase of the two phase of the petrochemical project will also be put into operation in June. Apart from the 260 thousand ton plant put into operation in Zhejiang petrochemical project in 11-12, the production of acrylonitrile will also show a surplus state after the smooth production of the Si bang and Hai Jiang installations. It is estimated that the market price of acrylonitrile will continue weak performance in 7-8 months, and the market lacks effective rebound power. After September, the start of the downstream acrylic fiber industry is expected to be better. At the same time, Anqing Petrochemical has a major repair plan, plus cost side support, acrylonitrile price or staged rebound, but the expected rate is very limited. In addition, we need to pay attention to the start-up of Hai Jiang, Si bang and Zhejiang petrochemical companies. The second half of this year will be an important stage for the domestic acrylonitrile industry to transition from oversupply to overcapacity.