Polyester Stock Increased To 12-31 Days, Polyester Filament Price Decline Widened

Sometimes the sun is shining and the clouds are thick. The polyester Market in recent stages is just like this changeable weather. The sound of price rises seems to have not dissipated recently, and the sound of price declines has come one after another.

Last week, driven by the sharp rise in international oil prices, PTA futures rose vigorously on 10 and 11 days. It was thought that polyester filament could also take this opportunity to usher in a wave of "weekend quotes" again.

However, 12 days later, the futures of PTA futures dropped sharply, and the spot market plunged, and the spot market changed accordingly; the reverse market of the polyester filament market was also dissipated.

First, the lack of "weekend quotes" guidelines, polyester filament quotation fell 200-400 yuan / ton

Due to the lack of "weekend quotes" guidelines, the polyester filament Market in recent days has been sluggish. On the 15 day, the price quotations of some polyester factories decreased sporadically, but on the 16 day, the prices of mainstream manufacturers dropped sharply, and the quotations for each product increased somewhat, with a drop of 200-400 yuan / ton level.

16 day specific price

Jiangsu direction: the price of polyester in Jiangsu has dropped by 300-500 yuan / ton; the price of polyester POY in a factory in Taicang has dropped by 200-300 yuan / ton; the FDY of Wuxi factory has dropped 100-200 yuan / ton, and the deal has been discussed.

Tongxiang direction: a mainstream factory in Tongxiang, polyester sales promotion volume is 200-300 yuan / ton.

Xiaoshao direction: FDY of a factory in Shaoxing fell 100-200 yuan / ton, the deal was discussed; Xiaoshan factory POY fell 200-400 yuan / ton.

Two, the market turnover atmosphere is light, polyester production and sales to 2-4.

In addition to price fluctuations, the production and marketing of polyester factories is also the focus of the market. Since entering July, the market atmosphere of polyester filament market has been rather slack, especially in the downstream market caused by PTA's downtime. Most of the time, polyester production and marketing are running at a low level. Especially in recent trading days, the mainstream production and marketing of polyester has dropped to nearly 2-4 percent. It really belongs to the low production and marketing stage of the year.

On 3-5 July, polyester production and marketing reached 2-3.

On 8-10 July, polyester production and marketing reached 1-3.

In July 11th, when the international oil price and PTA rose strongly, polyester production and marketing just exceeded 100. When the market started, the production and marketing were easy to break hundreds or even higher.

On 12-15 July, polyester production and marketing reached 3-4.

In July 16th, although the price of mainstream polyester filament manufacturers decreased, the overall production and sales of polyester remained general. The mainstream production and marketing were concentrated in 6-7, and mostly POY.

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Three, low inventory is "submerged", stock alarm again loud.

Low inventories in the polyester market were once proud of the fact that inventories fell to the low level since the Spring Festival, and to some extent support the steady rise in the price of polyester filament. However, along with the drag of polyester mainstream production and marketing continues to slump, the low inventory that is proud of has been gradually "submerged", the market stock alarm has been ringing again.

From the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market has increased to 12-21 days now. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are up to 7-11 days, FDY stocks are close to 12-18 days, while DTY stocks are about 20-25 days. If the production and marketing continue to run weak, the pressure of polyester manufacturers will increase further.

Whether the price of polyester filament market falls, production and marketing is weak or inventory booster, the key is the lack of cooperation and upgrading between upstream and downstream markets.

First, PTA stepped out of the "mountaineering" and "diving" trend, forming a certain impact.

First of all, naturally speaking of international oil prices, the price of crude oil is up and down, directly hitting many market confidence. In June 29th, the heads of state of the two countries met at the G20 summit in Osaka to announce the resumption of negotiations between China and the United States and bring benefits to the market. But then, because the market believed that the crude oil production cut agreement was not as good as expected, international oil prices began to fall sharply, or over 4%. In July 9th, China and the United States made progress in the trade negotiations. On the 10 th, the US Federal Reserve sent interest rate messages, coupled with the recent tense situation in Iran, and the international oil price rose more than 4% on that day.

Under the role of fundamentals and capital, PTA futures have also gone out of the "mountain climbing" and "diving" trend recently. In July 9th, chemical products fell all over the board, ethylene glycol tail down, PTA opened low, 10 days PTA, MEG disk continued low operation, and near the end of the table, PTA futures face "wind mutation", uneasy strong pull up, the rally continued for a long time, 12 days PTA futures face sharp decline, intraday diving, then weak operation. Affected by the futures market, the upstream raw material market of polyester raw materials is also booming, which has a certain impact on the polyester filament market.

Two, weaving factories are not willing to hoard goods, and the rate of start-up is down.

It is understood that most of the weaving factories at the recent stage are relatively indifferent to the rise and fall of raw materials and do not rush to make a move. Most of the weaving factories in the early days have hoarding goods for a month, and weaving factories can at least half a month do not replenish the goods to maintain normal production without dropping down.

Another key aspect is that it is reported that the inventory of textile enterprises in northern and central and western regions is generally around 2 months. Under the pressure of inventory, many weaving factories are now in the process of reducing production and holidays. Entering the July, the starting rate of weaving market has declined. Among them, the leading rate of the main clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has also gone down. At present, the loom loom rate is concentrated at about 8%; the warp knitting rate is 5 above the average; the opening rate of the circular machine has dropped to about 5%; compared with the previous month, the start-up load has decreased by 17 percentage points, and the enthusiasm of the manufacturers has been obviously frustrated.

The "summer vacation" effect caused by the cut down of weaving factories or to a certain extent reduce the procurement demand for raw materials. It is reported that polyester factories have been in the process of overhauling in recent stages, which may relieve the corresponding stock pressure. In order to develop the textile market better and orderly, we hope that both the polyester manufacturer and the weaving manufacturer can maintain a steady start, reduce speculation and speculation.