Before The Sino US Trade Friction Did Not Continue To Upgrade, Zheng Cotton Market Was Hard To Fall.

Today's cotton market is dried up like a deflated ball, without a bit of "essence and spirit". Everyone's pessimism on the market continues to increase. When Zheng cotton fell below 13000 yuan / ton, from time to time, some people shouted out 12000 yuan / ton point.

In fact, the development of the futures market is like a pendulum, and it will go from one extreme to the other extreme, which has been verified by numerous examples. Under the background of Sino US trade friction, although Zheng cotton will not have a decent rebound in the future, I believe that at least there will not be a deep decline in the near future.

Recently, President Trump said that the United States has a long way to go to conclude economic and trade agreements with China. It threatens to impose tariffs on Chinese products worth 325 billion US dollars. In the past, Trump's unreliable rhetoric has made the market hard to deal with. Zheng cotton is also flying up and down. I feel that with the Sino US trade friction falling into calm, gradually becoming normal, the market will gradually absorb and digest. Now, the small shock situation at the bottom is very good. At the very least, before the Sino US trade friction did not continue to upgrade, Zheng cotton was hard to fall.

The balance of market supply and demand is the essential factor that affects the price fluctuation. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, as of July 12th, the annual sales rate of new cotton in the whole country was 75.8%, down 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The output was calculated by 6 million 105 thousand tons, and there were about 1 million 477 thousand tons of new cotton sold for sale in the whole country. The cotton futures margin of Zhengzhou cotton continued to decrease from 13 thousand tons to 620 thousand tons last week. Internationally, the new cotton growing in the United States has been growing well, and the seasonal wind and rain in India has improved. The output of China's new cotton is expected to be flat or increase last year, and the harvest prospect of the main producing countries in the northern hemisphere is approaching.

In terms of downstream demand, customs data show that China's exports in June decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, while imports dropped by 7.3% compared with the same period last year. The export volume of textile and clothing decreased by about 3.2% compared with the same period last year. Under the background of weakening International economic environment, China's trade is still facing some pressure. Of course, there are many dimensions of supply and consumption indicators.

In short, under the dual driving of supply and demand, cotton prices are not difficult to rebound if they want to rebound. At the same time, it is unlikely that there will be further downturns. Cotton market should not be overly pessimistic, nor can it be blindly optimistic.