Thinking Behind PTA Ups And Downs

Recently, the news of the PTA market has been heard, and all kinds of news are coming. Whether it is speculation or fact remains to be considered.

Thinking behind the ups and downs

At present, PTA spot liquidity is tight, the base of the 400 yuan up and down the high position, there is no turning around. We have made the following considerations:

1, the news speculation: price rise and fall are inseparable from the stimulation of news: the recent rise and fall of prices, the market also rumors of various news: a factory PTA device restart postponed until August; a large factory and downstream contract reduction; a factory PX device problems. These can be described as groundless, and the little editor thinks that "a single spark can start a prairie fire".

2, the PTA factory offers support: the news does not have a substantial impact on PTA. We believe that spot prices can continue to maintain a high level, largely due to the factory price matching. According to the inventory data, the supply of PTA is relatively stable, and there is no obvious removal of the library, but the circulation tension in the spot market is true.

According to some traders, at present, the mainstream brands are scarce, and some of them are not available. Only the supply of non mainstream brands can be provided. At the same time, downstream polyester factories also said: it is difficult to receive the supply of mainstream brands in the market. At present, the mainstream brands are basically in the hands of mainstream factories. Therefore, PTA prices are arranged sideways under the pattern of selling at a premium.

Figure 12018-2019 PTA social inventory

Source: lung Chung

3. The expected overhaul of the PTA plant is not yet clear.

According to long Zhong information statistics, the overhaul of the market is not yet clear. It is understood that only 700 thousand tons of Hon Bang plant in Jiangyin is planned to be overhauled near the end of July. The 600 thousand ton plant of the Jialong Petrochemical Company is scheduled to undergo a two week overhaul in August 20th. The Honggang Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand ton plant is initially scheduled to have annual inspection in September. And there is news, Yisheng Ningbo market or device maintenance. The specific equipment maintenance needs to be officially announced.

According to long Zhong data, the demand and supply situation in July was calculated. In July, the PTA device was not overhauled. Only Fuhai Chuang was in the middle of the past, and the Luoyang petrochemical plant had not been booted since the end of April. It is reported that the device will be restarted near July 21st. Under the current high processing fee of nearly 2000 yuan, the PTA device is overloaded. Therefore, long Zhong estimated that the output of PTA would be about 3 million 870 thousand tons in July. The production of polyester from the beginning of July has been continuously fermented. According to the reduction of production, the production of polyester in July is about 4 million 280 thousand tons. According to the demand of 0.855, the demand for PTA is 3 million 659 thousand and 400 tons, plus the demand of other 11-12 million tons. In July, PTA will show a pattern of small storage.

Two, outlook for the future

There is still some doubt about the persistence of the PTA market, but there is limited space in the short term. At present, the reduction of production capacity in polyester factories is still insufficient, rigid demand is still there, and the mode of selling prices at mainstream factories is still persisting. The new Feng Ming PTA plant is scheduled to be put into operation in September, and the supply will increase further. In the short time game, the PTA market price is sideways.

And this price continued high, the quality of the industry is more suspicious. On the one hand, under the stimulation of high profits, the PTA repair process is slow. On the other hand, there is no obvious improvement in the terminal market, and the inventory of grey fabric is still up to 40 days. So there is a lack of terminal demand driven, and the price of raw materials alone is rising and the market price is difficult to sustain. We should pay close attention to the overhaul of PTA units, polyester production reduction and the start of terminal orders.