PTA Suddenly Rose 2.37% Downstream Demand Was Flat Or Rebounded Limited.

Yesterday, PTA after more than a week of shock finishing, finally ushered in the outbreak, it can be said that a long drought in the rainy season, as of the close of the main futures (1909) closed at 6036, compared with the previous trading day rose 140, or 2.37%.

So the sudden rise of PTA is the agitation before the storm, or the return of the downturn?

Supply of raw materials led to PTA Rally

Yesterday afternoon, driven by news of a 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant in East China, the main force of PTA was quickly pulled up, but the company did not perform the car maintenance.

At the present stage, the crude oil price is weak as the raw materials end, because the EIA inventory report is empty. Despite the decline in crude oil inventories, the stock of gasoline and distillate oil has seen a significant accumulation. The storage of finished oil offset the positive impact of crude oil storage. Affected by the impact of oil prices, PX prices are also in a downward trend, PX- naphtha oil price fell to 330 U.S. dollars / ton near.

Supply structure is stable and profits are high.

PTA with the implementation of the polyester plant reduction plan, the demand dropped slightly, and the operation started to drop to 80.12%. However, the maintenance of Fuhai PTA device makes the spot circulation tighter, and the supply structure is excellent.

In terms of profits, from the profits of the industrial chain: PX is -17 yuan / ton, PTA is +1454 yuan / ton, polyester staple is +179 yuan / ton, polyester POY is +187 yuan / ton, PTA has completely squeezed the profits of PX. According to the current PTA factory control volume momentum, the average spot price of PTA in July is at a high level, and the monthly average profit even exceeds the peak of 2018 August.

Stocks are rising gradually when demand is flat.

In terms of demand, the polyester Market in recent days has been put into light, and the reduction of production in polyester enterprises is still continuing. In a short time, it is difficult to improve the operation level of polyester.

Take polyester as an example, since July, it has dropped by 750 yuan / ton, or nearly half of the previous increase. At the same time, the terminal market demand is still weak, resulting in gradual increase in stock, polyester chip stocks increased 0.2 days to 1.8 days, polyester short stock increased 1 days to 3.5 days, polyester FDY inventory increased 3.5 days to 8 days, polyester DTY increased 4 days to 16 days, polyester POY increased 3 days to 4.5 days.

So in the short term, PTA pulled up yesterday, the downstream polyester production and marketing has been slightly boosted, stimulating the market to become more emotional. However, there is still a trend of expansion of polyester production in the lower reaches. It is also in the off-season, and the upstream PX price is more than downward. If the negative factors continue to suppress prices, it is expected that the PTA rebound will be limited and the warmer adjustment will be the main factor. (source: JOYOU information, Baocheng futures)