The Resumption Of Sino US Negotiations Is Slower Than Market Expectations, And Orders Are Less Than Cotton Sales.

Last week (July 15-19), the resumption of Sino US negotiations was slower than market expectations. The United States promised not to levy new tariffs and changes, and the market confidence was hit. Cotton mill procurement is prudent, just need mainly. The price of cotton yarn is relatively stable, but the speed of delivery is decreasing, and the withdrawal of goods is slow. The order is insufficient and inventory is still high. The volume and price of the round came down, and the transaction price dropped slightly. Last Friday, the cncottonB index was 14048 yuan / ton, down 97 yuan / ton compared with the previous Friday, compared with the CF1909 contract of Zheng cotton futures, the spot premium was 1078 yuan / ton, expanding 33 yuan / ton, which was not conducive to the registration of warehouse receipts.

Futures. By the US disk decline, Zheng cotton center of gravity moved down, Zheng cotton main contract CF1909 closed on 12970 yuan / ton last Friday, the week fell 130 yuan / ton, traded 1681420 hands, reduced 1134104 hands, reduced 40.3%, holds 424808 hands, increased 2684 hands, reduced 0.6%, the disk fluctuation was small, the transaction reduced greatly. By the end of July 19th, the top 20 seats in the position were more than 227229 hands, an increase of 6114 hands, 271971 hands empty, 12362 more hands, 44742 hands clearance, 6248 hands increase, and the US market's innovation low, Zheng cotton short increased slightly. By the end of July 19th, there were no changes in the purchase of 1194 units in the holding warehouse, and 45691 hands in the policy of selling the package, reducing 1398 hands, continuing to decrease, making profits or closing positions. As of July 19th, 14601 registered warehouse receipts decreased by 916. The warehouse receipt effectively forecast 835, an increase of 208. The progress of Sino US negotiations is slow and the prospect is unpredictable. China's imports of cotton have reduced, and the impact of cotton yarn exported to Vietnam, India, Palestine and Indonesia has begun to appear. The global economic environment is facing many difficulties, and the domestic economy is down. The consumption of larger consumption of clothing is squeezed, and cotton consumption is expected to decrease. The growth trend of the new cotton is better, the yield is increased, the bottom price of the wheel is down 190 yuan / ton this week, and the upward pressure of Zheng cotton is heavy.

Us disk: poor export data, new cotton growing well, global consumption is sluggish, Sino US negotiation prospect is unpredictable, the US disk hit a new low of three years, Friday speculative short added back rebound, the main contract in December closed Friday at 63.06 cents / pound, the week rose 44 points. The market lacks positive news, with limited rebound space and shock consolidation. Continue to pay attention to the progress of Sino US trade war negotiations.

On the spot. Futures center of gravity moved down, procurement again cautious, cotton mill to maintain low cotton stocks, market procurement to just demand, futures fell triggered some spot price transactions, trading prices fell with futures, or less than futures. Trading volume and average transaction price declined. The "double 28" machine is priced at 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and the "double 28" hand picking cotton price is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, and the main transaction price of Xinjiang cotton is 13900-14500 yuan / ton interval according to the quality. Customs import cotton lacks the price advantage, the resources continuity is not stable, the goods are general. The price of viscose for alternatives is relatively stable.

Operation suggestion. The supply and demand fundamentals are bad, and the market lacks good news. This week, the bottom price has been cut by 190 yuan / ton, and the futures market of the bad sky has been rebounded technically after the deep fall.