Cotton Trend Cotton Enterprises 8, September Is To Leave Or Stay?

In late July, the inner ginning mills and cotton enterprises gradually became more and more lively. On the one hand, machine maintenance and equipment renewal were opened; on the other hand, some textile factories, traders and investment enterprises in the mainland went to Xinjiang to inspect and contract processing plants, and the rented production line was also officially launched. Of course, a number of research and development organizations, Futures Company and other organizations also joined the production and marketing team in Xinjiang. The parties are eager to try.

With the new cotton market listing less than two months (Southern Xinjiang hand picked cotton is the fastest before the second half of September to start processing), a large number of 2018/19 regulatory merchandise warehouse turnover inventory is becoming more and more embarrassed, manifested as "large quantity, slow out, and capital". According to the cotton Logistics Association of China Cotton Association, as of the end of June, the total inventory of cotton turnover in China was about 2 million 917 thousand and 400 tons, of which 43 warehouses in the Xinjiang area had 2 million 162 thousand tons of commodity cotton turnover and 74% of the total stock in the country. According to the monitoring of relevant departments, in July, Xinjiang cotton road transportation was low, and the railway did not get much improvement. Therefore, the author judged that the total output of Xinjiang cotton in the whole July was less than 200 thousand tons, and the turnover of commodity cotton turnover within the territory as at the end of July was not less than 1 million 950 thousand tons.

For most cotton enterprises, it is not easy to answer the question of whether to leave or stay in 8 and September. Especially in the southern Xinjiang hand picked cotton ginning factory, which fails to guarantee or fail to guarantee, leaving the field means a big loss and gambling. According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, as at 19 in July, 5 million 102 thousand tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang, and 3 million 827 thousand tons of lint were sold in Xinjiang. Sales accounted for 75% of the total processing volume this year. If the sample is mainly a large and medium-sized cotton processing enterprise, then the actual sales of the ginning plant will be more than 75% or even greater than 80% (the small ginning factory is restricted by funds, sales channels, markets and so on. Most of the shipments are concentrated before March), that is, the main body of commodity cotton inventory management is Cotton Traders (most of which are hedging and arbitrage), rather than cotton processing enterprises.

筆者的看法是走而非留，就像棉花播種一樣“時來不等墑，墑來不等時”，原因主要有如下幾點：其一、中美貿易磋商短期難有大的推進，利好消息并不多，即使重啟談判恐怕也要到8月下旬及以后了，而且前景難料；其二、8、9月份國內棉花供給非常充足，商品棉庫存+儲備棉輪出+進口至少400萬噸，“缺口”論不攻自破；其三、從近幾年來看，2015、2017年8-9月份棉價持穩或下跌，而2016、2018年8-9月份先跌后漲，2019年很可能延續“奇”數年定律；其四、2019年國內棉花消費滯漲、下跌非“一日之寒”，至少從目前調查來看，需求下降尚未現止跌、反彈的勢頭；其五、全球棉花基本面、技術面都看空，主力破60美分/磅或是大概率事件。