First Half Of The Textile Industry Supporting The Role Of The Domestic Market Highlights

On the afternoon of August 6th, the China Federation of textile industry held an economic analysis meeting of the textile industry in the first half of 2019. The China Textile Federation Industrial Economics Research Institute introduced the textile economic operation in the first half of the year and the trend forecast in the second half of the year. The China Textile Federation International Trade Office introduced the progress of Sino US trade friction and its impact on the textile industry. The China Textile Federation, the chemical fiber Association, the cotton textile association, the printing and dyeing Association and the clothing association respectively introduced the first half of this year's operation and the trend forecast in the second half of the year.

China Textile Industry Federation Party committee secretary and Secretary General Gao Yong, President Sun Ruizhe, former chairman Du Yuzhou, Wang Tiankai, vice chairman Yang Jizhao, Xia Lingmin, vice secretary of the Party committee Chen Weikang, Secretary of the discipline inspection committee, vice chairman, Chen Dapeng, Huaibin, and other leaders, and China Textile Federation professional associations and heads of departments attended the meeting. The meeting was chaired by Sun Huaibin.

At the meeting, Liu Xin and Zhao Mingxia, vice president of the China Textile Industry Economic Research Institute, respectively analyzed the operation situation of the textile industry in the first half of 2019 and looked forward to the whole year trend. In the first half of 2019, under the background of increasing pressure from inside and outside markets, textile industry's operation indicators such as production, marketing, efficiency and investment fluctuated. The industry persisted in deepening the structural reform of supply side, accelerating the transformation and upgrading, and the boom degree remained in the expansion area, and the economic operation state was generally normal, which was basically consistent with the macro situation and development expectations.

The specific performance is: the domestic market growth slowed down, the export pressure increased, the overall economic situation was stable, production grew steadily, the pressure of operation quality and efficiency increased, the scale of investment declined slightly, the development pressure of the whole year was still outstanding, and the supporting role of the domestic market was prominent.

Generally speaking, the external environment facing the textile industry is more complex in the second half of 2019, but our macroeconomic environment and domestic consumption market will still provide the primary development support for the industry. The textile industry will continue to implement the spirit of the nineteen party and the central economic work conference in a comprehensive manner, persist in pushing forward the structural reform of supply side, tap the potential of domestic demand, vigorously promote the development of high quality, further enhance the ability to resist risks and develop resilience, and make every effort to ensure smooth operation.

At the same time, the textile industry must correctly and fully understand the complexity of the global economy and trade environment and the long-term nature of the risk factors. We should make proper preparations to promote sustained and healthy development of the industry, contribute to the national economic development and win the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, and offer 70th anniversary tribute to the founding of the people's Republic of China.

Liu Yaozhong, deputy director of the China World Trade Center Office of the China Textile Corporation, takes the Sino US trade - "double market and deduction" as the theme, and from the current trade environment to the current global manufacturing industry development trend and the digitalization of the industry changes, and deduces the possible trend of trade friction in the future. At the same time, he also put forward how the industry should deal with and guide the position of the international supply chain and how to maintain the competitive advantage from the aspects of market demand, industrial supply and policy.

For example, in the process of hedging the external economic environment, the textile and garment industry should actively strive for their own interests, and strive for their own space in the increment of domestic demand; in the case of Sino US trade friction, the differentiation and concentration of industries will accelerate. Therefore, we should continue to improve the efficiency of the supply chain, and at the same time, through product research and development, innovation, the irreplaceable products can be irreplaceable. This is a path for the sustainable development of the textile and garment industry in the future.

Xu Jianhua, vice president of the China Textile Federation circulation branch, first analyzed the overall situation of the professional market in the first half of 2018. Under the overall stable situation, China's professional market is being differentiated, and the operational efficiency is also polarized. On the one hand, it shows that the key markets of the leading companies have achieved remarkable results in upgrading and upgrading, and on the other hand, they show that the structural differentiation of the specialized market in China has intensified. On the whole, the professional market has maintained growth for 6 consecutive years. It can be used to describe the development of many years in one word, that is, "change", the environment is changing and itself is changing.

The specialized market of textile and apparel should take the platform economy as the banner to guide the optimization and upgrading of the specialized market. Over the years, the China Textile Federation circulation branch has invested a lot of energy in promoting the construction of specialized platform for textile and apparel market. It is suggested that the platform function of the specialized market should be brought into full play, leading the optimization and upgrading of the specialized market and achieving the goal of regional market integration.

Next, the China Textile Federation circulation branch will launch six key tasks. First, select a number of key markets and clusters to conduct investigation and study; second, carry out examination and evaluation for outstanding platform enterprises, dig out benchmarking benchmarks; third, set up a professional market platform for economic development alliance; fourth, organize a platform Economic Summit Forum; fifth, study the implementation of the textile and apparel specialized market development platform economy; sixth, work with the key provinces and commerce departments to promote the pilot demonstration of platform economic regional integration.

Wu Wenjing, director of Information Department of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, analyzed the basic situation of the chemical fiber industry in the first half of 2019 from the aspects of production, demand, market, quality and efficiency, investment and so on. In the first half of 2019, China's economic environment is grim and complicated, especially external challenges and uncertainties. The downward pressure on the chemical fiber industry is increasing. The market situation generally shows that the market has started to rise, and the low position has rebounded in June. The weakening of demand has highlighted the contradiction between supply and demand. The profitability of the industry has obviously declined, and the quality of operation has been generally stable. However, the risk has already appeared. The "integration" of the industrial chain is further deepened, the profit redistribution of the industrial chain is redistributed, and the investment growth rate has dropped to negative growth, with the new capacity decreasing year by year.

The gradual landing of the national initiative to promote high-quality development will also play a strong role in the development and operation of the chemical fiber industry. However, the downward pressure on the industry in the second half of this year is still great, and the risks and challenges remain. The industry's ability to resist risks and develop resilience will continue to improve. What the industry needs to do is to "manage its own affairs", strive to defuse risks, strengthen industry self-discipline, avoid undesirable competition, and reasonably control new capacity production.

Leng Jing steel, director of the Development Department of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, reported on the operation of China's cotton textile industry in the first half of 2019. First, the downward pressure has increased and enterprises have responded positively; two, the industry chain waits for strong emotions; three, the pressure of large enterprises is not lower than that of small and medium-sized enterprises; four, the marginal effect of equipment upgrading is decreasing; five, domestic industrial transfer is slowing down, and overseas layout is limited. In terms of production, although the industry's downward pressure is increasing, the industry's ability to resist risks has been increasing. Therefore, as long as the forecast is clear, the industry can still maintain stable and healthy operation. In terms of foreign trade, the Sino US consultations are in order, but the uncertainties are still relatively large. The export pressure of the second half of this year is not decreasing. Raw materials, domestic cotton and chemical fiber staple supply is adequate. With the new cotton coming to the market and raw material prices rising, the price of raw materials is weaker in 2019. The investment growth rate continues to slow down.

Ding Sijia, deputy director of the printing and dyeing industry association of China, reported the first half of the printing and dyeing industry in 2019 and the trend of the second half of the year. In 2019, the printing and dyeing industry accelerated its technological progress and industrial upgrading. At the same time, it firmly maintained high quality development and green development, and maintained relatively stable operation quality. In the first half of this year, the growth rate of printing and dyeing industry increased steadily, the quality and efficiency of operations were basically stable, profitability improved, the deficit expanded and the amount of losses decreased, and the export market performed well, and exports rose and fell. In the second half of this year, printing and dyeing industry development and business operation still face many difficulties. If the industry wants to achieve transformation and upgrading, it needs to crack the following development bottlenecks. First, speed up technological innovation and equipment upgrading, enhance the hard power of the industry; second, we must strengthen management innovation, explore management systems, ideas and methods that meet the requirements of the industry development; third, we should enhance the awareness of safety production, increase the added value of products, and enhance the quality and function of products.

Liu Jing, senior project director of China Garment Association Industry Department, analyzed the economic performance of China's garment industry in the first half of 2019. Since 2019, China's garment industry has been actively carrying out structural adjustment, pragmatic innovation, and accelerating the transformation of growth kinetic energy. Although domestic and international market pressures have increased and operation quality and efficiency fluctuated slightly, the industry has maintained a stable development trend and entered a new round of strategic reconstruction and accumulation.

Overall, it shows the trend of stable production, slow down in domestic sales, a slight increase in investment and a slight fluctuation in quality and efficiency. The specific performance is that the industrial added value keeps low speed growth, the output decreases slightly, the decline narrowed, the scale of business income expands, the profit declines slightly, and the operation quality is basically stable. In addition, the development of garment industry in the first half of this year showed the characteristics of speeding up the structural adjustment, increasing the intensity of product upgrading, improving the quality of manufacturing brand, enhancing the market influence of terminal brand, and promoting the continuous development of intelligent manufacturing.

2019 in the second half of the year, the operation pressure of China's garment industry will be further increased. The whole industry should continue to deepen the structural reform of supply side, strive to enhance the endogenous driving force and anti risk ability of enterprises, and strive to achieve a smooth and benign operation of the industry.

The conference is drawing to a close. Sun Huaibin, vice president of the China Textile Industry Federation, concluded that the economic operation analysis of the textile industry in the first half of 2019 will be carried out under the background of the theme of "never forget the original mind and remember the mission". The theme of this educational activity is that we should combine work with practice and transform our learning achievements into a vivid practice of industry service and improve service level. Knowing the operation status of the industry is the basic skill to improve the service level, which is also the significance of this conference.

In the first half of 2019, the textile industry was running steadily and under pressure.

Source: China Textile Industry Federation Industrial Economics Research Institute

In 2019, the domestic and foreign macro situation faced by our textile industry is more and more complex and severe. Various unstable and uncertain factors interweave, which brings multiple challenges to the industry's promotion of high quality development. In the first half of the year, under the background of increasing pressure from inside and outside markets, textile industry's production, marketing, efficiency, investment and other operational indicators fluctuated. The industry insisted on deepening the structural reform of supply side, accelerating the transformation and upgrading, and the boom was maintained at the expansion interval, and the economic operation was generally normal, which was basically in line with the macro situation and development expectations.

Domestic market growth slowed down and export pressure increased.

Since 2019, China's textile and apparel products market has been slowing down steadily, but online retail sales are growing well. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles were 656 billion yuan, an increase of 3% over the same period last year. The growth rate slowed down by 6.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. The retail sales of apparel products nationwide increased by 21.4% over the same period last year, while the growth rate slowed down 2.7 percentage points over the same period last year. However, it accelerated by 2.3 percentage points from the first quarter of this year, and has returned to a higher level of growth since April.

Affected by the weakening of the international economic recovery and the rising risk of trade environment, the export pressure of textile industry increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the adjustment of product structure and market structure was accelerated. According to China Customs data, in the first half of this year, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $128 billion 400 million, down 2% from the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down 4.8 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. From the perspective of product mix, upstream chemical fiber, yarn, fabric and other products have become the main driving force for export growth. In the first half of this year, China's textile exports grew by 1% over the same period last year, accounting for 48.2% of the total export volume of the industry, up 4.1 percentage points from 2018, while garment exports fell 4.7% over the same period. The export market structure shows that exports to emerging markets are better than traditional markets. In the first half of this year, China's exports of textiles and clothing to the United States, the European Union and Japan decreased by 0.7%, 4.2% and 4.7% respectively, and their exports to ASEAN, Mexico and Africa increased by 0.8%, 3.9% and 5.2%, respectively.

The overall situation is stable and production is growing steadily.

Since 2019, the boom of the textile industry has continued to expand. According to the survey data of the China Textile Industry Federation, the textile industry boom index was 55 and 52 in the first quarter and the first half of the year, respectively, above the 50 ups and downs, indicating that the industry is still in the growth cycle.

Industry production has achieved steady growth overall. In the first half of this year, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 3.6% compared to the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, but 1.8 percentage points slower than the first quarter of this year. In the various links of the industrial chain, the industrial added value of the chemical fiber industry maintained a two digit figure of 13%, which was higher than that of the high speed growth rate, 6.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The industrial added value of the textile industry increased steadily, and the growth rate in the first half year was 7.6%.

Operation quality and efficiency pressure has increased, and investment scale has declined slightly.

Since 2019, under the pressure of the internal and external market, the pressure of textile enterprises has increased, the quality of operation has been increased more difficult, and the operating profit margin is rising month by month. In the first half of the year, 34 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 2 trillion and 471 billion 550 million yuan in business revenue, an increase of 3.2% over the same period last year, a slowdown of 0.9 percentage points over the same period last year, a total profit of 103 billion 160 million yuan, a decrease of 4% over the same period last year, and a slower growth rate of 6.4 percentage points over the same period last year, but still better than the national manufacturing profit growth rate over the same period. In all sub sectors, the growth of filaments and printing and dyeing industry benefits the whole industry. The total profit increased by 12.9% and 9.9% respectively over the same period. In the first half of this year, the operating profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.2%, slightly lower than the 0.3 percentage points of the same period last year, but this year it has been increasing month by month. The profit margin in the first half of this year is 0.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. In the first half of this year, the turnover rate of finished products in textile enterprises above designated size was 15.1 times / year, a year-on-year slowdown of 5.9%; total assets turnover rate was 1.3 times / year, the ratio of three fees was 6.9%, and the asset liability ratio was 56.3%, which was roughly the same as that of the same period last year. The change of industry operation quality indicators shows that the pressure of survival and development of textile enterprises has increased. However, enterprises are still actively accelerating transformation and upgrading, and strive to improve their comprehensive management capabilities, trying to resolve external risks and maintain steady development.

Small scale investment in fixed assets reflects a slight lack of investment confidence. In the first half of this year, the fixed assets investment in textile industry decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down by 2.6 and 7.8 percentage points respectively over the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. In various sub sectors, the investment in clothing industry increased by 0.8% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 6.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the scale of investment increased for 5 consecutive months. The investment in textile and chemical fiber industry decreased by 0.3% and 10.6% respectively. According to the regional perspective, the investment in some provinces in the central part of China has been accelerated. The investment volume of textile industry in four provinces of Anhui, Henan, Hubei and Hunan has increased fairly well, and the growth rate is significantly higher than the national average level.

The development pressure of the whole year is still outstanding, and the supporting role of the domestic market is prominent.

Looking forward to the whole year, the complexity and uncertainty of the domestic and foreign macro environment faced by China's textile industry will not weaken. In the second half of this year, the growth of global economic and market demand is expected to slow down, due to the uncertainty of trade environment and the weakening of US economic growth momentum. Sino US trade relations can hardly be completely alleviated. The trade war does not exclude the possibility of further upgrading. Although it involves only commodity exports to the single market of the United States, the deterioration of the trade environment and the confidence of the market will make the export situation of the textile industry even more severe, and the total export volume will be more difficult to recover in the second half of the year.

Influenced by the international economic and trade situation, the pressure of China's macro-economic operation has also been improved. Although the economic operation will remain at a reasonable level, the growth of residents' income and the improvement of consumer confidence are faced with a certain degree of restrictive influence. In the face of a more severe external situation, the state will pay more attention to policies and regulations, stabilize consumption and investment demand, and promote the formation of a strong domestic market. At the same time, it will further implement the policy of reducing taxes and reducing taxes, and better maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, creating a better market space and business environment for the development of the real economy, thus contributing to the formation of a virtuous cycle of increasing corporate profits, increasing investment confidence and expanding consumer demand.

Generally speaking, the external environment facing the textile industry is more complex in the second half of 2019, but our macroeconomic environment and domestic consumption market will still provide the primary development support for the industry. The textile industry will continue to implement the spirit of the nineteen party and the central economic work conference in a comprehensive manner, persist in pushing forward the structural reform of supply side, tap the potential of domestic demand, vigorously promote the development of high quality, further enhance the ability to resist risks and develop resilience, and make every effort to ensure smooth operation. At the same time, the textile industry must correctly and fully understand the complexity of the global economy and trade environment and the long-term nature of risk factors. We should make proper preparations to promote sustained and healthy development of the industry, make contributions to the national economic development and win the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, and offer 70th anniversary tribute to the founding of the people's Republic of China.