The Trade War Is Heating Up In Britain, And The Global Economy Is In Danger In The Second Half Of The Year.

The main international forecasters believe that economic growth will not be as good as (2018) in this (2019) year. Scholars point out that the conflict between the US and China will rise, the trade disputes between Britain and Europe, Japan and South Korea, and the global central bank's interest rate easing path will add uncertainty.

The US and China trade negotiators have not made significant progress in Shanghai's negotiations recently. US President trump announced by tweet that since September 1st, 10% tariffs have been imposed on the remaining value of US $300 billion in Chinese mainland imports.

Li Chun, deputy executive director of WTO and RTA center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the Central News Agency reporters that the US move is nothing more than increasing bargaining chips. However, the position of the Chinese mainland has also been hard up recently. Negotiations will no longer yield, and at the same time increase the terms of negotiation, and clearly understand that "mutual respect is not negotiated at gunpoint."

He said that the two sides' position is becoming more and more obvious, and the flexibility of negotiation has also been reduced. Trump is likely to use negotiation opportunities to score points for individual elections. If the agreement is harmful to the election, trump is unlikely to accept it. Therefore, there will be little chance of a compromise between the US and China, which may take a step back to achieve some agreements, but the market generally believes that the negotiations will drag on to the US presidential election in November (2020).

Apart from the United States and Mainland China, Japan and South Korea also set off trade disputes. The Japanese government announced in July that it had strengthened the export of 3 key electronic raw materials, including fluorinated polyimide, photoresist and etchant gas, to South Korea, and then kicked out the white list of trade preferences. South Korea will also appeal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in addition to offering retaliatory measures. Japan and South Korea trade war, fear of affecting the global semiconductor supply.

Li Chun said that if South Korea fails to import raw materials in time, it will affect the overall supply chain. Wang Jianquan, vice president of the China Economic Research Institute, said that if the South Korean semiconductor shipments were not enough, the whole supply chain could be reshuffled. In addition, South Korean mobile phone shipments were affected, and other brands would also accelerate beyond.

Li Chun said the key is that Japan does not prohibit the export of goods to South Korea, but rather asks for an export license. If Japan's "fake export license, the embargo" really evolved into a trade war, South Korea will also retaliate against Japanese exports.

He said that the future trend is still hard to predict. If Japan's exports to South Korea are more licensed, it will probably resume trade patterns in the next 2 to 3 months.

It is not only the trade dispute between the United States, China, Japan and South Korea, but also Britain's uncertainty over Europe. Britain's new prime minister, Johnson, is firmly committed to Europe and has become a top priority for the new government.

Li Chun said that the EU has the final say that Britain is not the only one to take the lead. It is also a very tough attitude for the EU. It is the biggest challenge for him to find a balance between the UK and the EU and lead the UK forward.

Li Chun pointed out that Britain is highly dependent on the European Union. If Britain has no agreement to depart from Europe, the life of the British people will bear the brunt. At present, about 1 million of the British people work in the European Union. Most of Britain's fruits and vegetables rely on the European Union, which will lead to higher prices in Britain after the tariffs are lifted.

Wang Jianquan said that when EU funds and high-ranking talents are restricted to and restricted to the UK, they will not be able to enjoy preferential tariffs. The financial focus of Europe will move to Germany and France.

In response to the global economic variables, the Central Bank of Australia, India, Philippines and South Korea has cut interest rates. The United States announced that the benchmark interest rate would be lowered by 1 at the end of July. It would be a preventive measure for the US economy at a time when global growth was slowing down. It was also the first time since the global financial tsunami hit the economy in 2008.

Li Chun said that central banks predicted higher uncertainty in economic prospects, and therefore relaxed policies. Wang Jianquan analysis shows that the US economic growth and employment data perform well, which is a preventive global economic downturn, first announced a rate cut. South Korea was the first quarter of the negative economic growth, the prospect is not good, only to cut interest rates, looking for market funds.

Wang Jianquan said that if the main countries adopt a rate cut strategy to let all currencies compete, and Taiwan is highly dependent on exports, when the currency competition space is tight, the central bank may have the next move.