Polyester Market Up And Down, POY Trend Is The Most Robust

With the PTA market "jumping up and down", ups and downs, the polyester Market in recent stages is also ups and downs, let textile people quite "scared". From the polyester market segmentation products, POY products are relatively robust in recent years.

First, once the production and sale of polyester are exploded, POY sales will be the most prominent.

In recent months, the overall production and marketing performance of polyester market has been rather dull. From time to time, when the market is stimulating or the price fluctuates, the average production and marketing will break through hundreds of times, and experience "two day trips" or "three day tours". And polyester production and marketing once burst watches, the most prominent among them is the POY manufacturers.
We know that the most recent production and marketing explosion watch is that on the day of August 7th, the market turnover atmosphere was active, and the mainstream production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces increased to 220-230% nearby. According to statistics, the 7 POY manufacturers of sales exploded watches were sold, and some manufacturers sold and sold as high as 500% or even 800%, far exceeding the overall level.

Two, once positive signals are released, POY prices will pick up most rapidly.

Recently, the mainstream manufacturers of polyester filament are mainly focusing on weak reduction. Occasionally, there is a rebound in PTA spot or a sharp rise in production and sales on the previous day. The release of the market positive signals has led to a short recovery of polyester filament products, and POY manufacturers are definitely the most responsive. Once the confidence of polyester industry chain has been boosted up, the mainstream products of POY will have more than 50-200 yuan / ton increase, which is higher than or faster than that of FDY and DTY products.

Three. Polyester mainstream stock booster, but POY manufacturers have the lowest inventory pressure.

Here, we have to mention that inventory is being dragged down by the low production and marketing in recent stages. From the statistics of China silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is now near 13-22 days.

From the perspective of specific products, POY stocks are concentrated in 6-10 days, and FDY stocks are close to 13-19 days, while DTY stocks are about 21-26 days. At a glance, POY manufacturers' inventory is low in several categories of products. For a long time, whether the overall stock market in the polyester market is in the high or low position during the year, POY products are basically under the average mainstream stock.

In a weak market, POY can "stand out" and what is it relying on?

First, the scale effect of POY is prominent, and bargaining power is enhanced.

In recent years, the capacity concentration of polyester industry has been increasing. Especially during the 2017-2018 years, the news of the "bankrupt enterprises" of the leading enterprises in the polyester industry frequently came out, such as Heng Yi's acquisition of the red sword and Longteng; in addition, the newly put into operation polyester production capacity in recent years has basically come from the hands of several big pet owners such as Yu Tongkun, Xin Feng Ming, Heng Yi and Rong Sheng.
POY itself is a highly concentrated product, which is one of the reasons why the industry side conference has repeatedly affected its price trend in the previous two years. Although market prices are ultimately determined by the market, the high concentration of capacity also means that POY has relatively strong bargaining power on the upper and lower reaches, and the pricing power is more powerful.

According to statistics, by the end of 2018, the POY capacity of the whole country was around 23 million 150 thousand tons. Among them, Hengyi Petrochemical Company had a total of 5 million 800 thousand tons, and the Tong Kun group totalling 5 million 100 thousand tons, and the new Feng Ming Group totaled 3 million 700 thousand tons, occupying about 63% of the total capacity of POY. This year's new POY production capacity is still concentrated in big factories, new Feng Ming 300 thousand tons POY, Tong Kun 300 thousand tons POY, Fujian Jingwei 200 thousand tons (POY+FDY).

Two, the number of ammo increases year by year, and rigid demand is inevitable.

From the perspective of POY market demand, it is mainly from downstream bomb manufacturers and weaving factories. Since 2013, there has been a sharp increase in the number of bomb loader on the market. The newly released production capacity has been released, and the ammo product has entered the situation of overcapacity. However, the number of ammo aircraft is increasing every year. This year, the textile market is not ideal, which has caused a great impact on the market, but has increased the speculative attitude of some bomb manufacturers. If the upstream market or macro level fluctuates, triggering POY prices to fall rapidly or suddenly pull up, will stimulate bomb manufacturers.

Apart from the specialized bomb manufacturers, some weaving factories with large scale and financial strength can reduce the cost of their own products, and also have the projectile adding machine, which can reduce the packaging cost when buying low elastic wires. The DTY produced by these weaving factories partly meet their own needs, and some of them also have external sales. They also increase the rigid demand for POY products.