Polyester Staple: Stocking Prices Are Coming Before The End Of September Or No Significant Drop In Risk.

In recent years, the market of polyester staple fiber is extremely short of centralized stocking market. Even if there is a small market push, there is a very small amount of stocking downstream, and the production and sales of short staple factories are less than 500%. However, after a half month long cross market quotation, the market postponed or cancelled some product tariff incidents as a fuse, opened a wave of concentrated rise, and the sales and marketing rate of many enterprises reached over 500%, which could be called a rare centralized stocking market.

"500%, 700%, 1300%..." The number of high-yield sales has been reported. The tired demand side is not as bad as the industry thinks.

Even if there is no delay or cancellation of tariffs on some products, dacron staple will not continue to fall. This incident is only an opportunity, not an absolute reason.

Judging from the recent half month market, since the short shipment of short staple enterprises at the end of July, the market began to enter the stage of weak consolidation. The market price began to stop after falling to 7050 yuan / ton, and the industry's cash flow was only around 50 yuan / ton, and the average stock of enterprises was less than a week. The raw material inventory of downstream customers is relatively low for a long time. In the background of most bad profits, the industry does not think that the market price will fall below 7000 yuan. During this period, customers continue to stock up, but at the same time, because of the lack of positive signals, buyers are afraid to blindly place orders because of their prudent psychology.

However, after the news came out last night, buyers could not calm down. Customers in the early market had stocked up, so the price of staple fiber was also rising. Some enterprises even closed the market.

Then the market will see whether the market will continue to become the focus of the industry's attention.

I believe that even if the market can not continue to rise, but because of the lower purchasing prices are low, by the end of September, the market has no risk of a sharp decline.

First of all, the raw material side, the current PX supply and demand fundamentals change little, and PTA processing fee is also in a relatively reasonable interval, although the TA market still has certain storage pressure, but in August there is a big factory 2 million 200 thousand tons of maintenance expectations, and polyester factory load gradually increased, and the new capacity production phenomenon exists, demand side support for polyester raw material is acceptable, PTA short term weakness is not great probability.

Secondly, polyester staple fiber supply side, the factory production and sales rate in 500%-1000%, factory inventory basically all digestion or even oversold state, the industry has no supply pressure.

Again, demand side, although this concentrated stocking also shows that the market has overdraft risk, but before the imitation big and big chemical fiber price difference of less than 200 yuan / ton, resulting in some of the regenerated yarn customer transfer to large chemical fiber, the industry just needs to expand the foundation, so demand side short-term support is still available.

Therefore, in the coming period, even if the rally is hard to maintain, there will be no obvious decline in the polyester staple market in terms of low inventory, low cash flow and supporting background. Even if there is equipment overhaul in the late PTA, the market is likely to see another surge.