Us Postponed The Phased Easing Of Some Commodity Tariffs To Boost Cotton Market Recovery

High level calls between China and the United States, some commodities postponed tariff increases

According to the Information Office of the Ministry of Commerce, on the evening of August 13th, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and Chinese leader of the Sino US comprehensive economic dialogue, spoke with the US trade representative, Mr. lettse, and finance minister Mnuchin. The Chinese side made solemn representations on the US side's tariffs on goods exported to China in September 1st. The two sides agreed to call again in the next two weeks.

This is the first direct dialogue between China and the United States since the recent deterioration of Sino US relations by Trump's series of actions.

President Trump said his government had made a very productive call with China, saying that Beijing really wanted to reach an agreement. Although he often denied that tariffs had any impact on consumer prices and insisted that China had undertaken those costs, he also said that the delay in tariffs could avoid "affecting the Christmas shopping season".

Meanwhile, on August 13th, the office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) said that the Trump administration would postpone the time of adding 10% tariffs to some Chinese products to December 15th (the US government originally planned to levy 10% tariffs on Chinese products worth 300 billion US dollars from September 1st). The products that were postponed for duty include mobile phones, laptops, video game consoles, some toys, computer monitors and some shoes and clothes.

However, tariffs on surplus commodities, such as tools, equipment and shoes, will still take effect in September 1st. According to the analysis of the strategy of the Yangtze River, the us temporarily suspended tariffs on some commodities, mainly because the dependence of these commodities on the Chinese market was as high as 84%.

The cotton market in the stock market is getting warmer. The market says that taxation will only harm consumers, and calls for an end to the trade war as soon as possible.

Stimulated by the news of the suspension of Sino US relations, global stock markets generally recovered, and international oil prices rose sharply, hitting a two week high and the offshore renminbi exchange rate soared. Apple Corp shares surged 6%, and many retailers, including Best Buy, rose sharply. The market thinks that the delay in tariffs will boost sales in the fourth quarter.

ICE cotton rebounded sharply in August 13th, and the contract closed to 60 cents in December, closing at a high of nearly seven trading days. Zheng cotton main contract 2001 today closed 12920 yuan / ton, up 1.21%.

David French, senior vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federation, said: "while we are still reviewing the details, we are pleased that the government has postponed some tariffs before the holiday season and admitted that this will have a huge impact on US consumers. Nonetheless, the uncertainty of US businesses is continuing. Tariffs coming into effect in September 1st will lead to higher costs for us families and a slowdown in the US economy. During this period of delay, we urge the government to develop an effective strategy to solve unfair trade practices through cooperation with its allies, rather than using unilateral tariffs to reduce employment opportunities and harm consumers in the United States.

The national campaign, which is supported by more than 150 largest US trade organizations representing retail, technology, manufacturing and agriculture, issued the following statement: "although we understand some delays in tariffs, it clearly shows that the government recognizes tariffs as taxes paid by Americans. The government seems to understand that taxes on daily products such as toys, clothing and electronic products are politically unpopular and harm those who can not afford it. Unfortunately, today's announcement did not solve the vast majority of tariffs that led to uncertainty, causing farmers to lose their jobs and slow down the development of small businesses. It is time to reach an agreement to end the trade war, rather than pick temporary winners and losers, and take the American economy hostage. "

Although the market welcomes the implementation of the new tariff in two steps, some enterprises are frustrated by the sudden change of government and the fact that the president's trade policy has been forced to make important business decisions again.

Rick Helfenbein, President of the American clothing and Footwear Association, said tariffs, even if they were delayed, were also a "destructive plan": "there is no doubt that these tariffs, including tariffs previously collected, are paid by American companies. They increase the cost and uncertainty of enterprises, forcing companies to postpone or cancel recruitment and investment decisions, and ultimately affect American consumers. Rebalancing our trade partnership with China is essential. For US companies, consumers and the economy, taxation is not the only way to achieve our goals. "

"It's too late now, and it's not enough," said Peter Bragdon, chief executive officer of Columbia SportswearCo. in Columbia. "Washington's policy making continues to be chaotic and incoherent, making it difficult for US companies to plan." Columbia's waterproof mountaineering shoes and other footwear products will still face a 10% tariff next month. Although the company has only 10%-15% products from China, Bragdon said the production of professional footwear is difficult to transfer, and the company has warned customers to be forced to raise some prices.

Sino US trade frictions have not yet been fundamentally improved. Cotton market is oversupply.

[CITIC Securities] pointed out in this analysis: some commodities are temporarily suspended tariffs. The reason given by the United States is to take into account the negative effects of some commodities tax increases on national security and residents' health, but the main reason is that the US relies heavily on China and has a negative impact on American consumers. According to the analysis, it is better than "market expectations" to suspend tariffs on some commodities, but it is not a fundamental improvement in trade frictions between China and the United States. First, in the medium term, the US has few cards in the field of trade. Secondly, the increase in marginal tariffs on the United States is obvious, and the trade conflicts will not be out of control. Most of the commodities suspended this time depend on the US's dependence on China's supply, or mainly processed by American multinational companies in China. However, this tax increase list and pace adjustment are the active adjustment of the US side based on their own ability, not the fundamental improvement of the Sino US trade frictions.

According to my analysis of agricultural products network, the basic principle of domestic cotton market is still relatively poor, especially the demand of downstream textile enterprises is still weak, small and medium-sized textile enterprises stop production or limit production, and textile and garment exports decline, and cotton market demand does not support cotton price rise. At present, the biggest support factor for domestic cotton market is the purchase price of national cotton reserves in the new year, but if the basic fundamentals are not improved, cotton prices will still oscillate. Under the background of the relevant departments to strengthen the control of imported cotton, the domestic cotton market needs to pay more attention to the acquisition and sale of national cotton reserves, and the guiding role of the policy will determine the rise and fall of cotton prices. Judging from the current cotton consumption situation, it is possible that the new cotton market will meet the start-up conditions of the temporary storage and purchase plan.

Because the size of the acquisition and sale of national cotton can affect the supply and demand pattern of domestic cotton market, the current market is particularly concerned about this. However, the import cotton and 2018/19 lint warehouse receipts in port are still overloaded. The price of such lint is relatively low, and the export of cotton textiles in China is not smooth enough, and domestic cotton prices will hardly increase in the short term.

Comprehensive analysis, 2018/2019 cotton supply pressure will continue to 2019/2020 year, the huge inventory will be a greater suppression of cotton prices in the medium and long term; as the export situation in the second half of this year still depends on the development of international relations, it is difficult to quickly pick up the order estimate, and the domestic and foreign price difference of the cotton price will swallow up the profits of the enterprises. The textile industry is still not optimistic. The State purchasing and storage policy may temporarily boost the price of new cotton. (source of Bloomberg global finance, securities times network, shipping online, China Textile News, my agricultural product network)