Uncertainties Continue To Ferment! In The First Half Of The Year, What Is The Hidden Trend Of China's Textile Foreign Trade?

In June 2019, China's textile and clothing trade volume was 26 billion 650 million US dollars, down 3.6% compared to the same period last year. Among them, exports amounted to 24 billion 650 million US dollars, down 2.9% compared to the same period last year; imports of US $2 billion, down 10.5%, and the trade surplus of US $22 billion 650 million in the same month, down 2.2%. In 2019 1~6, China's textile and clothing trade volume was US $136 billion 350 million, down 2.7% compared with the same period last year. Among them, exports amounted to 124 billion 260 million US dollars, down 2.6% compared to the same period last year; imports of US $12 billion 90 million, down 3.9%, and trade surplus of US $112 billion 170 million, down 2.4%.

Specifically, in the first half of the year, China's textile and clothing trade mainly presented the following characteristics:

The rise and fall of exports are alternately occurring.

In the first half of this year, China's textile and clothing exports fluctuated significantly, due to the adverse effects of Sino US trade friction. In June, exports continued to fluctuate, declining again. Textile and clothing decreased by 3.3% and 2.7% respectively in the same month, so that the total export decline in the first half of this year expanded to 2.6% again.

Compared with exports, the trend of textile and clothing imports has been relatively stable. But since May, imports have dropped sharply for two consecutive months, with a drop of more than 10%. In June, there was a phenomenon of double entry and exit. The decline in imports is mainly concentrated on semi finished products such as yarns and fabrics. These products are highly correlated with clothing exports. The decline in imports means that exports of clothing products are likely to show a more significant decline in the coming months.

　　 Continuous fermentation of uncertain factors

From the first half of the year, the situation of textile and clothing exports basically met expectations, and there was a big fluctuation and a certain degree of decline.

　　 Looking forward to the second half of this year, uncertainties still exist in foreign trade. At the beginning of July, China and the United States met at a high-level meeting. The US side announced that it would no longer raise taxes on 300 billion commodities. In just a month, in early August, Trump announced that he would unilaterally announce a tax increase on some of the commodities from China in September 1st, which made the Chinese and American industries extremely surprised. In August 13th, the office of the United States trade representative issued a document announcing that 10% tariff was added to the home textile products. Some products began in September 1st, and some products were postponed to December 15th. In the first half of the year, apparel home textiles accounted for 83% of US exports. Taxes on these products will undoubtedly have a significant impact on China's exports in the second half of this year. From the list, most commodities are classified as tax increases in September 1st, which basically do not respond to time for enterprises. It is expected that in the months before December 15th, some garments and home textiles exported to the United States will have a certain export performance, but the export of US tax increases will decline. In the case of the European Union and Japan, where the market is still sluggish, the annual export decline will be inevitable.

The EU market has not yet stabilized.

In June, the EU market failed to continue the smooth trend of the first two months, and exports to the EU fell again in the same month, with a drop of 8.3%. Textiles and clothing decreased by 8.1% and 8.3% respectively. In the first half of this year, exports to the EU totaled 21 billion 440 million US dollars, down 4.8%, the most in the key markets. Among them, clothing decreased by 7.1%, and the total export volume of needle woven garments of large categories decreased by 2.6%, and the export unit price dropped by 5.8%. Textile grew by 0.5%. According to the EU customs statistics, in the 1~5 month of 2019, the EU imported 55 billion 920 million dollars from the world in textile and clothing, basically flat, and imports from China 16 billion 360 million US dollars, down 1.1%. The EU's imports from ASEAN and Bangladesh increased by 6% and 7% respectively. The share of Chinese products in the EU market was 29.3%, continuing to decline, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period in 2018.

The US market is volatile.

According to statistics, the number of tax increases in China has dropped sharply, and the goods without tax increase have continued to grow. In the first half of this year, China's total exports of textiles and clothing to the United States totaled 21 billion 230 million US dollars, down 1.6%, a drop lower than that of the European Union and Japan.

　　 Affected by tariff increases, exports to the US textile industry fell sharply in the month of June, when exports of US $1 billion 170 million, down 10.2%, of which yarn, fabrics and finished goods decreased by 27.7%, 31.1% and 4.8% respectively, and the negative effects of tax increase were highlighted. In 1-6 months, the US textile exports totaled 6 billion 50 million US dollars, down 4.9%, of which yarn, fabrics and finished products decreased by 36%, 16.8% and 0.5% respectively. Among them, the export tax related 200 billion commodity (list 3 commodity) textile total 2 billion 330 million US dollars, down 18.3%.

As the United States threatened to levy 25% tariffs on clothing and home textiles from China in mid 5, the speed of export to the United States was accelerated, and the export of garments and home textile products increased in 5~6 months. In June, the export of clothing and home textiles to the United States increased by 6.5% and 1.3% respectively. In the first half of this year, total exports to the US decreased by 0.3%, and home textile exports increased by 5.9%.

In the first half of 2019, the United States imported $59 billion 200 million of textiles and clothing from the world, an increase of 4.1%. Among them, imports from China amounted to 18 billion 670 million US dollars, down 1.4% compared with the same period last year; imports from ASEAN, India and Bangladesh increased by 8.9%, 7% and 12.9% respectively. The share of Chinese products in the US market is 31.6%, down 1.7 percentage points from the same period in 2018.

ASEAN has achieved a slight growth.

In June, driven by yarn and fabric, ASEAN's textile exports resumed an increase of 6.1%. In the first half of this year, total exports to ASEAN totaled 18 billion 420 million US dollars, an increase of 0.5%, of which 5.3% and 2.9% of major categories of yarn and fabrics were respectively increased, and the export volume of needle woven garments decreased by 8.9%.

A slight rise in the sunrise.

In June, China's exports to Japan continued to pick up and resume growth. Exports to Japan increased by 0.6% in that month. In the first half of this year, total exports to Japan fell by 4.6%, the drop was only below that of the European Union. Among them, textile exports increased by 0.5%, clothing decreased by 6.2%, exports of large categories of needles and woven garments decreased by 7.4%, and the export average price increased by 1.2%.

According to Japanese customs statistics, in 2019 1~6, Japanese textile and clothing imports 17 billion 890 million US dollars, down 1.2%, of which 9 billion 780 million from China's imports, down 5.9%, and grow 5.6% from ASEAN. The proportion of China's product market dropped to 54.7%, down 2.7 percentage points from the same period in 2018.

　　 The "one belt and one way" market performs well.

The proportion of "one belt and one road" countries in China's export market has further improved, which is better than the traditional market.

The situation along the "one belt" road is better than that in the European and American traditional markets. In the first half of this year, the total export volume to the countries along the line was 44 billion 80 million US dollars, a decrease of 1.6%, which is lower than that of the European Union, the United States and Japan. Exports to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia and Western Asia have increased, but the performance of central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been poor, and exports have declined more.

The "one belt and one way" country's position in our export market has further improved, accounting for 35.5% of exports in the first half and 1.1 percentage points higher in half a year.

Price bottleneck restrains export growth

In the first half of the year, despite the impact of tax increases on exports to the US, textile exports to the world continued to grow, with a total export of US $58 billion 640 million, a slight increase of 0.7%, and a decline in clothing exports, and exports of US $65 billion 620 million, down 5.3%.

The growth of textile exports was mainly driven by quantity, and the export of yarn and fabric increased by 3.8% and 4.1% respectively. The export unit price decreased, and the average export price of yarn and fabric decreased by 5.4% and 2.1% respectively. In clothing, the export volume and price of large categories of knitted and woven garments dropped by 1.5% and 4.6% respectively.

Textile imports fell across the board and clothing imports continued to grow. In June, import and export of textiles and clothing reproduced two digit declines, bringing the total import decline to 3.9% in the first half. From the point of view of the commodity structure, it is mainly caused by a decrease of 8.9% of the total textile imports of 2/3, of which yarn, fabric and finished goods decreased by 7.9%, 12.3% and 6.2% respectively. The decline in textile imports is made up of quantity and price, and the rate of decline is faster. Clothing imports continued to grow, with an increase of 8.1%, of which the import and price of needle woven garments increased by 4.7% and 4.2% respectively. From the point of view of the import market, the main source of textile imports, except Vietnam, has declined from major markets such as Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea and India.

Cotton imports continued to grow at a high speed, with a total import of 1 million 180 thousand tonnes in the first half, an increase of 73.5%. China imported 243 thousand tons from the United States, down 41%, and the share of US cotton fell to Brazil, and its share dropped to 21%. Brazil, Australia and India listed first, third, fourth places, accounting for nearly 60% of the total.