PTA Futures "Swoop" 5000 Points, But No Big Drop In Space.

Sometimes, something that everyone thinks is unlikely to happen will happen. Recent PTA futures are like this. Most people think it is going to go up, but it starts to plunge and dive 5000 points. Why on earth is this?

Xiaobian is actually not very clear. Two days ago, Xiaobian also belonged to the kind of people who thought PTA would go up next, but now they were hard faced by reality. Xiaobian is not convinced, he wants to know why, but he can't understand the reason before he thinks about it. There is nothing he can do but to use the most stupid elimination method. Excluding all the impossible factors, what remains is the truth.

Guess 01

Crude oil price

As raw materials for polyester industry chain, crude oil prices can really affect the price of PTA, but after returning to search, 19 days of international oil prices rose, 20 international oil prices rose, 21 international oil prices mixed each other, which is not consistent with the two day PTA crash. So guess 1 oil price PASS.

Guess 02

Weaving demand

The demand for weaving has been more evident from the production and marketing of polyester factories. But in fact, the production and sale of polyester in August has been much better than that in July. Almost every 1-2 weeks, there will be a wave of production and marketing. On average, the average production and sale of polyester has also reached 8-9 since August. It is not too low. With the increase of loom's starting rate, weaving demand in the future should be a good trend. So guess 2 weaving needs PASS.

Guess 03

Inventory pressure

High storage does affect the price of PTA. At present, the PTA social inventory is estimated to be around 1 million 400 thousand tons, which is affected by the device parking inspection. In August, it maintained a small amount of Library clearance. At present, the impact of inventory on PTA price should be positive. So guess 3 stock pressure PASS.

Guess 04

Device restart

If the downstream demand can not keep pace with the increase in operating rate, there will be a situation of oversupply. This week, the PTA overhaul device has been rebooting, and 4 million 500 thousand tons of Fuhua chemical industry and trade, and 1 million 500 thousand tons of Jiaxing petrochemical plant have been driven. However, due to the unexpected stop of two sets of devices, such as Hua Bin Petrochemical (1 million 400 thousand tons) and Fujian Jialong (600 thousand tons), the market impact is not as great as expected.

On the other hand, polyester manufacturers continue to rise to 88.1% this week, and downstream demand will also reduce the impact of PTA device restart. So guess that the 4 device restarts the same PASS.

Guess 05

PX price

PX as a direct source of PTA, if its price falls rapidly, it will also reduce the price of PTA to a certain extent. According to data monitoring of China silk capital network, in August 21st, PX Korea's price fell by 4 US dollars / ton, and in August 22nd, it also fell by 4 US dollars / ton, but this small drop is only a normal degree of turbulence, and can not make PTA fall into this way. So guess 5 of the PX price is also PASS.

The above 5 conjectures are incorrect, or fail to achieve the degree of continuous decline of PTA, even more profitable aspects. In addition, there is no big news on the pet market in recent macro news, so there is only one answer - capital speculation.

In the past, in terms of PTA, capital was mostly speculation. Last year, the main force of PTA has been fired up to 8500 points, but this capital is in the opposite direction. Can such a fall last?

Xiao Bian thinks not.

On the one hand, from the basic analysis of the above analysis, the current situation of PTA is more profitable than bad. As soon as September enters, the weaving market will be ready, and the demand for raw materials will increase further.

On the other hand, from the profit point of view, according to the data monitoring of China silk capital network, in August 21st, the profit of PTA has dropped to 381 yuan / ton, which has dropped to a great extent compared with the profit of over 1000 yuan in July, and there has been no big drop in space.

Impact on weaving enterprises

Now the price of PTA is falling, but the price of polyester filament is steady and small, but it has risen slightly in the last two days. In fact, since August, the price of polyester filament has been rising slowly at a price of 100-300 yuan per ton per week.

For weaving enterprises, the demand for raw materials will increase as the operating rate rises. Raw material prices can hardly be maintained at the present low level. A slight fall in PTA prices may slow down the pace of polyester rise slightly.

At present, the order of some enterprises has improved, and orders have been started. After receiving orders, if we can make up the raw materials needed by orders when the raw material prices are relatively low, we can also reduce the risk of future losses.

THE END

Unlike in the past, this time the capital has not gone up, but it has dropped sharply when the profits are better than the bad ones. But at present, the PTA processing fee is relatively low, and there is little room for sustained drop in the future.

But the fall of PTA may be able to slightly suppress the price of polyester, which may be a good time for weaving enterprises to replenish raw materials.